US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
417 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022
Valid Sunday May 29 2022 - Thursday June 02 2022
- Heavy precipitation across portions of the Northern Plains/Rockies, and the Northern Great Basin,
Sun-Mon, May 29-May 30.
- Heavy rain across portions of the Pacific Northwest, Sun, May 29.
- Heavy rain across portions of the Central/Northern Plains, and the Northern Rockies, Sun-Mon, May
- Heavy rain across portions of the Central Plains, Tue-Wed, May 31-Jun 1.
- Severe weather across portions of the Central/Northern Plains, and the Middle/Upper Mississippi
Valley, Sun, May 29.
- Severe weather across portions of the Central/Northern Plains, the Middle/Upper Mississippi
Valley, Mon, May 30.
- Flooding possible across portions of the Central Plains.
- Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Northern
- Flooding likely across portions of the Southern Plains.
- Excessive heat across portions of the Southern Plains, Sun, May 29.
- High winds across portions of the Central Plains/Rockies/Great Basin, the Southern
Rockies/Plains, and the Southwest, Sun-Mon, May 29-May 30.
- Enhanced wildfire risk across portions of the Southern Rockies, the Central/Southern Plains, and
the Southwest, Sun-Mon, May 29-May 30.
Much of the country will experience active weather during the medium range period (Sunday, May 29th
- Thursday, June 2nd), but the hazardous weather is likely to remain confined to the western and
central portions of the CONUS. A closed upper-level low will slide down into the West from Canada
this weekend as another trough pushes off into the Atlantic. Scattered to isolated thunderstorms
will remain possible over the Florida Peninsula through mid-week.
The upper low in the West will settle over the Rockies and Plains this weekend and drive most of
the hazards over the western and central U.S. through the end of the month. Models have converged
on a possible solution for heavy rainfall over parts of the Willamette Valley, central Cascades and
coastal range of Oregon on Saturday into Sunday. This weekend's enhanced wildfire risk is likely to
continue over parts of central New Mexico on Monday due to dry and windy conditions caused by the
digging upper trough to the north. Warm air will advect into western New Mexico, northwest Texas
and southern Oklahoma beginning this weekend as an upper ridge glides across the Gulf states. High
temperatures in the aforementioned areas of Texas, New Mexico and Oklahoma will exceed 100 degrees
for 2 days in a row (Saturday-Sunday) which warrants an excessive heat area. Those with particular
heat sensitivities should take precaution.
Troughing in the West will also support the potential for heavy precipitation over parts of
west-central Montana on Sunday and Monday, where heavy low elevation rain and heavy mountain snow
is expected. Heavy rain is forecast to spread across southeastern Montana and into the western
Dakotas, northeastern Wyoming and northwestern Nebraska on Sunday and Monday as the front stalls
out over the Northern/Central Plains. An axis of additional heavy rainfall may develop along the
front in southeastern Nebraska on Tuesday before expanding into central Kansas on Wednesday. Severe
thunderstorms are also forecast to develop out ahead of the surface front over parts of the eastern
Dakotas/Nebraska, western Iowa and much of Minnesota on Sunday, before expanding into north-central
Nebraska on Monday.
. . .Alaska. . .
A quasi-stationary front will remain draped across the northern mainland, while a deep area of low
pressure weakens as it approaches the Gulf coast throughout the medium range period. Warmer than
normal temperatures are expected across the central/southern mainland as a result. Another deep
area of low pressure will approach the western Aleutians by next Thursday.
|Download Day 3-7 Shapefiles||Download Day 3-7 KML|