Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
The Weather Prediction Center
Site Map News Organization
  DOC NOAA NWS NCEP Centers: AWC CPC EMC NCO NHC OPC SPC SWPC WPC

 
 

 
Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Facebook Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Twitter
NCEP Quarterly Newsletter
WPC Home
Analyses and Forecasts
   National High & Low
   WPC Discussions
   Surface Analysis
   Days ½-2½ CONUS
   Days 3-7 CONUS
   Days 4-8 Alaska
   QPF
   PQPF
   Flood Outlook
   Winter Weather
   Storm Summaries
   Heat Index
   Tropical Products
   Daily Weather Map
   GIS Products
Current Watches/
Warnings
Satellite and Radar Imagery
  GOES-East Satellite
  GOES-West Satellite
  National Radar
Product Archive
WPC Verification
   QPF
   Medium Range
   Model Diagnostics
   Event Reviews
   Winter Weather
International Desks
Development and Training
   Development
WPC Overview
   About the WPC
   Staff
   WPC History
   Other Sites
   FAQs
Meteorological Calculators
Contact Us
   About Our Site
 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official web portal to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services.


WPC Verification
Forecast Products
 
QPF's:    24-Hourly    6-Hourly    Days 4-5/6-7    5-Day Total
Medium Range:    Min Temps    Max Temps    Prob of Pcpn (PoP)    WPC Grids
Sea-level Pressure
 
Verification for specific events:    Hurricane Isaac QPF    Hurricane Sandy QPF
 

Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts

How Threat Scores and Bias are Computed

24-Hourly QPF's
Monthly Record Threat Scores

Annual WPC Day-1 / Day-2 / Day-3 Threat Scores
and Observed Areal Coverage;
Annual WPC Day-1 / Day-2 / Day-3 Bias
.50 inch (1961-2018) 1.00 inch (1961-2018) 2.00 inches (1970-2018)
Threat Bias Threat Bias Threat Bias

Annual WPC vs. NWP Guidance Threat Scores
1993-2018
1.00 inch
Day 1 Threat Percent Improvement Over NWP

Monthly WPC vs. NWP Guidance Threat Scores and Bias
November 2018 to November 2019
.50 inch 1.00 inch 2.00 inches
Day 1 Threat Bias Threat Bias Threat Bias
Day 2 Threat Bias Threat Bias Threat Bias
Day 3 Threat Bias Threat Bias Threat Bias

Monthly WPC Threat Score and Bias Comparisons (.50", 1.00", 2.00")
November 2018 to November 2019
Day 1 Day 2 Day 3
Threat Bias Threat Bias Threat Bias

Monthly WPC Threat Score and Bias Comparisons (Day 1 / Day 2 / Day 3)
November 2018 to November 2019
.50 inch 1.00 inch 2.00 inches
Threat Bias Threat Bias Threat Bias

NAM and GFS QPF Verification by Region
 
Object-oriented Verification


6-Hourly QPF's
Monthly Record Threat Scores

Monthly WPC vs. NWP Guidance Threat Scores
Update
November 2018 to November 2019
00-06 Hours .25 inch .50 inch

Monthly WPC vs. NWP Guidance Threat Scores
Day 1
November 2018 to November 2019
06-12 Hours .25 inch .50 inch
12-18 Hours .25 inch .50 inch
18-24 Hours .25 inch .50 inch
24-30 Hours .25 inch .50 inch

Monthly WPC vs. NWP Guidance Threat Scores
Day 2
November 2018 to November 2019
30-36 Hours .25 inch .50 inch
36-42 Hours .25 inch .50 inch
42-48 Hours .25 inch .50 inch
48-54 Hours .25 inch .50 inch

Monthly WPC vs. NWP Guidance Threat Scores
Day 3
November 2018 to November 2019
54-60 Hours .25 inch .50 inch
60-66 Hours .25 inch .50 inch
66-72 Hours .25 inch .50 inch
72-78 Hours .25 inch .50 inch

WPC vs. NWP Guidance - Threat Scores
December 2018 to November 2019
All 6-Hour Periods .25 inch .50 inch


Days 4-5/6-7 QPF's

Annual WPC Days 4-5/6-7 Threat Scores
and Observed Areal Coverage (2001-2018)
.50 inch 1.00 inch 2.00 inches
Threat Threat Threat

Monthly WPC vs. NWP Guidance Threat Scores and Bias
November 2018 to November 2019
.50 inch 1.00 inch 2.00 inches
Days 4-5 Threat Bias Threat Bias Threat Bias
Days 6-7 Threat Bias Threat Bias Threat Bias

Monthly WPC Threat Score and Bias Comparisons
.50", 1.00", 2.00"
November 2018 to November 2019
Days 4-5 Threat Bias
Days 6-7 Threat Bias


5-Day Total QPF's
Monthly WPC vs. NWP Guidance Threat Scores and Bias
November 2018 to November 2019
.50 inch 1.00 inch 2.00 inches 3.00 inches 4.00 inches
Threat Bias Threat Bias Threat Bias Threat Bias Threat Bias

Monthly WPC Threat Score and Bias Comparisons
.50", 1.00", 2.00", 3.00", 4.00"
November 2018 to November 2019
Threat Bias


Medium-Range Forecasts

Overview of data plotted on annual charts

Minimum Temperatures

Annual Mean Absolute Error (MAE) Charts (1972 - 2018)
WPC MAE for days 3-7 min temp fcsts
WPC -vs- Guidance MAE for day 3 min temp fcsts
WPC -vs- Guidance MAE for day 4 min temp fcsts
WPC -vs- Guidance MAE for day 5 min temp fcsts
WPC -vs- Guidance MAE for day 6 min temp fcsts
WPC -vs- Guidance MAE for day 7 min temp fcsts


Monthly Performance Charts (November 2018 - November 2019)
WPC RMS errors for Days 3-7 min temp fcsts
WPC percent improvement over MOS MAE (adjusted stations only) for Days 3-7 min temp fcsts
WPC winning percent vs MOS for Days 3-7 min temp fcsts


Year-to-Date Performance Chart (January - November 2019)
WPC improvement over MOS MAE, including percentage of stations adjusted, for Days 3-7 min temp fcsts


Maximum Temperatures

Annual Mean Absolute Error (MAE) Charts (1972 - 2018)
WPC MAE for days 3-7 max temp fcsts
WPC -vs- Guidance MAE for day 3 max temp fcsts
WPC -vs- Guidance MAE for day 4 max temp fcsts
WPC -vs- Guidance MAE for day 5 max temp fcsts
WPC -vs- Guidance MAE for day 6 max temp fcsts
WPC -vs- Guidance MAE for day 7 max temp fcsts


Monthly Performance Charts (November 2018 - November 2019)
WPC RMS errors for Days 3-7 max temp fcsts
WPC percent improvement over MOS MAE (adjusted stations only) for Days 3-7 max temp fcsts
WPC winning percent vs MOS for Days 3-7 max temp fcsts


Year-to-Date Performance Chart (January - November 2019)
WPC improvement over MOS MAE, including percentage of stations adjusted, for Days 3-7 max temp fcsts


Probability of Precipitation (PoP)

Monthly Performance Charts - 24-Hour PoP (November 2018 - November 2019)
WPC Brier scores for days 3-7 PoP fcsts
WPC percent improvement over MOS Brier score (adjusted stations only) for days 3-7 PoP fcsts
WPC winning percent vs MOS for Days 3-7 PoP fcsts


Year-to-Date Performance Chart - 24-Hour PoP (January - November 2019)
WPC improvement over MOS Brier score, including percentage of stations adjusted, for Days 3-7 PoP fcsts


Monthly Performance Charts - 12-Hour PoP (November 2018 - November 2019)
WPC Brier scores for days 3-7 12-Hour PoP forecasts
WPC percent improvement over MOS Brier score for days 3-7 12-Hour PoP forecasts

WPC Gridded Medium-Range Forecasts


How grids are verified
 
Monthly Performance Charts (November 2019)
Note:  MAE = Mean Absolute Error
 
Forecasts prepared by WPC meteorologists
MOS/WPC/NDFD Minimum Temperature 
(Days 4-7) 		MAE Bias
MOS/WPC/NDFD Maximum Temperature 
(Days 4-7) 		MAE Bias
MOS/WPC/NDFD 12-Hour PoP 
(Days 4-7) 		Brier Score

Products derived from forecasts prepared by WPC meteorologists
MOS/WPC/NDFD Dew Point Temperature 
(valid every 6 hours from F90-F180) 		MAE Bias
MOS/WPC/NDFD Wind Speed 
(valid every 6 hours from F90-F180) 		MAE Bias
MOS/WPC/NDFD Wind Direction 
(valid every 6 hours from F90-F180) 		MAE Bias
WPC/NDFD Cloud Cover 
(valid every 6 hours from F90-F180) 		MAE Bias

Mean Sea Level Pressure (PMSL)


WPC -vs- Guidance Anomaly Correlations

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Weather Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740
Weather Prediction Center Web Team		 Disclaimer
Credits
Glossary
 Privacy Policy
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 17-Jan-2020 18:30:50 UTC