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WPC Formal Publications

Papers with WPC-affiliated authors (bolded) , published in formal, refereed journals (e.g., AMS, EJSSM, NWA), from newest to oldest.


Wilson, K. A., N. Yussouf, P. L. Heinselman, ; A. Orrison , R. Otto , P. S. Skinner, K. Knopfmeier, B. Matilla, and M. Erickson, 2023: The NOAA Weather Prediction Center's use and evaluation of experimental Warn-on-Forecast System guidance. J. Operational Meteor., 11 (7) , 82-94,

Radford, J. T., G. M. Lackmann, J. Goodwin; J. Correia Jr , K. Harnos , 2023: An iterative approach towards development of ensemble visualization techniques for high-impact winter weather hazards. Part 2: Product development. BAMS, accepted.

Radford, J. T., G. M. Lackmann, J. Goodwin; J. Correia Jr , K. Harnos , 2023: An iterative approach towards development of ensemble visualization techniques for high-impact winter weather hazards. Part 2: Product evaluation. BAMS, accepted.

Williamson M., K. Ash, M. J. Erickson , and E. Mullens, 2023: Damages associated with Excessive Rainfall Outlooks (ERO) and missed flash floods. Wea. Forecasting , 35, 971–984,

Lamers, A. , Devi S, S., Sharma, M., Berg, R., Gálvez, J.M., Yu, Z., Kriat, T., Cardos, S., Grant, D., Moron, L.A., 2023: Forecasting tropical cyclone rainfall and flooding hazards and impacts, Tropical Cyclone Research and Review ,

Novak, D. R., S. E. Perfater, J. L. Demuth, S. W. Bieda III, G. Carbin, J. Craven, M. J. Erickson, M. E. Jeglum, J. Kastman, J. A. Nelson, D. E. Rudack, M. J. Staudenmaier, and J. S. Waldstreicher, 2023: Innovations in winter storm forecasting and decision support services, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 104 , E715–E735,

Burke, P. C., A. Lamers, G. Carbin, M. J. Erickson, M. Klein, M. Chenard , J. McNatt, and L. Wood, 2023: The Excessive Rainfall Outlook at the Weather Prediction Center: Operational definition, construction, and real-time collaboration, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , 104, E542–E562,

Lamberson, W. S., M. J. Bodner, J. A. Nelson, and S. A. Sienkiewicz , 2023: The use of ensemble clustering on a multimodel ensemble for medium-range forecasting at the Weather Prediction Center, Wea. Forecasting , 38, 539–554,

Asherman, J. , B. Bates, W. Flynn, M. Erickson, and  A. Lamers , 2022: Anticipating the big one: Developing decision support with emergency managers to mitigate flood impacts. J. Business Continuity & Emergency Planning , 16, 1–13.

McMurdie, L. A., G. M. Heymsfield,... David. R. Novak ..., 2022: Chasing snowstorms: The Investigation of Microphysics and Precipitation for Atlantic Coast-Threatening Snowstorms (IMPACTS) campaign. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , 103, E1243–E1269,

Veenhuis , B. A., and K. F. Brill , 2022: On the emergence of frequency bias from accumulating or disaggregating bias-corrected quantitative precipitation forecasts, Wea. Forecasting , 37 ,   511–524,

Erickson, M. J., B. Albright, and J. A. Nelson , 2021: Verifying and redefining the Weather Prediction Center’s Excessive Rainfall Outlook forecast product. Wea. Forecasting , 36, 325–340, .

Klaus, E., P. Market, A. Lupo, M. Bodner, J. Kastman , 2020: Projecting Northern Hemisphere Flow Regime Transition Using Integrated Enstrophy. < span class="c3 c6">Atmosphere , 11, 915,

Glenn, E.; Smith, T.M.,  Gálvez, J.M. , Davison, M. , Hibbert, K., González, J.E., 2021: Tropical Convection in the Caribbean and Surrounding Region during a Regional, Warming Sea-Surface Temperature Period, 1982–2020. Hydrology , 8, 56.

Schumacher, R. S., A. J. Hill, M. Klein, J. A. Nelson, M. J. Erickson, S. M. Trojniak , and G. R. Herman, 2021: From random forests to flood forecasts: A research to operations success story. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc .,i   102, E1742–E1755, .

Demuth, J. L., R. E. Morss, I. Jankov, T. I. Alcott, C. R. Alexander, D. Nietfeld, T. L. Jenson, D. R. Novak , and S. G. Benjamin, 2020: Recommendations for Developing Useful and Usable Convection-Allowing Model Ensemble Information for NWS Forecasters. Wea. Forecasting , 35, 1381–1406,

Stovern, D. R., J. A. Nelson , S. Czyzyk. M. Klein , K. Landry-Guyton, K. Mattarochia, E. Nipper, and J. W. Zeitler, 2020: The Extreme Precipitation Forecast Table: improving situational awareness when heavy rain is a threat. J. Operational Meteor ., 8 (7), 93-104,

Martinaitis, S.M.,  B. Albright , J.J. Gourley, S. Perfater , T. Meyer, Z. Flamig, R.A. Clark, H. Vergara,  M. Klein , 2020: The 23 June 2016 West Virginia Flash Flood Event as Observed through Two Hydrometeorology Testbed Experiments. Wea. Forecasting , 35, 2099-2126,


Erickson, M. J., J. S. Kastman, B. Albright, S. Perfater, J. A. Nelson, R. S. Schumacher, and G. R. Herman, 2019: Verification Results from the 2017 HMT-WPC Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall Experiment. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol.i , 58, 2591–2604,

Pyle, M. E., and K. F. Brill , 2019: A comparison of two methods for bias correcting precipitation skill scores. Wea. Forecasting , 34 , 3–13, .

Snook, N., F. Kong, K.A. Brewster, M. Xue, K.W. Thomas, T.A. Supine, S. Perfater, B. Albright , 2019: Evaluation of Convection-Permitting Precipitation Forecast Products Using WRF, NMMB, and FV3 for the 2016–17 NOAA Hydrometeorology Testbed Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall Experiments. Wea. Forecasting , 34, 781-804,

Erickson, M. J., J. S. Kastman, B. Albright, S. Perfater, J. A. Nelson , R. S. Schumacher, and G. R. Herman, 2019: Verification results from the 2017 HMT–WPC flash flood and intense rainfall experiment. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol ., 58 , 2591–2604, .

Rothfusz, L. P., R.l Schneider, D. Novak , K. Klockow-McClain, A. E. Gerard, C. Karstens, G. J. Stumpf, and T. M. Smith, 2018: FACETs: A proposed next-generation paradigm for high-impact weather forecasting. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc ., 99 , 2025–2043,

Blake, B. T., J.R. Carley, T.I. Alcott, I. Jankov, M.E. Pyle, S.E. Perfater, B. Albright , 2018: An Adaptive Approach for the Calculation of Ensemble Gridpoint Probabilities. Wea. Forecasting , 33, 1063-1080,

Martinaitis, S.M., J. Gourley, Z.L. Flamig, E.M. Argyle, R.A. Clark III, A. Arthur, B.R. Smith, J.M. Erlingis, S. Perfater, B. Albright , 2017: The HMT Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor Hydro Experiment, Bull. Amer. Met. Soc ., 98, 347-359,

Barthold, F. E., T. E. Workoff, B. A.,  Cosgrove, J. J. Gourley, D. R. Novak , and K. M. Mahoney, 2015: Improving flash flood forecasts: The HMT-WPC flash flood and intense rainfall experiment. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , 96 , 1859–1866, .

Moore, B. J., T. M. Hamill, E. M. Sukovich, T. Workoff, and F. E. Barthold , 2015: The utility of the NOAA reforecast dataset for quantitative precipitation forecasting over the coastal western United States. J. Operational Meteor. , 3 (12), 133–144.

Brill, K. F., A. R. Fracasso, and C. M. Bailey , 2015: Applying a Divisive Clustering Algorithm to a Large Ensemble for Medium-Range Forecasting at the Weather Prediction Center. Wea. Forecasting ,   30 ,  873–891,

Call, D. A., K. E. Grove, and  P. J. Kocin , 2015: A meteorological and social comparison of the New England blizzards of 1978 and 2013. J. Operational Meteor ., 3 (1), 1–10.

Novak, D. R., K. Brill, and W. A. Hogsett , 2014: Using percentiles to communicate snowfall uncertainty. Wea. Forecasting , 29 , 1259–1265,

Sukovich, E. M., F. M. Ralph, F. E. Barthold, D. W. Reynolds, and D. R. Novak , 2014: Extreme quantitative precipitation forecast performance at the Weather Prediction Center from 2001 to 2011. Wea. Forecasting , 29 , 894–911,

Picca, J.C, D. M. Schultz, B. A. Colle, S. Ganetis, D. R. Novak , and M. Sienkiewicz, 2014: The value of dual-polarization radar in diagnosing the complex microphysical evolution of an intense snowband. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , 95, 1825–1834,

Brill, K. F ., 2014: Revisiting an old concept: The gradient wind, Mon. Wea. Rev. , 142 , 1460–1471,

Novak, D. R., C. Bailey, K. F. Brill, P. Burke, W. A. Hogsett, R. Rausch, and M. Schichtel , 2014: Precipitation and temperature forecast performance at the Weather Prediction Center. Wea. Forecasting ,   29, 489–504, .

Stuart, N. A., R. H. Grumm, and M. J. Bodner, 2013: Analyzing predictability and communicating uncertainty: Lessons from the post-Groundhog Day 2009 storm and the March 2009 “megastorm.”  J. Operational Meteor ., 1 (16), 185–199, .

Novak, D. R . and B. A. Colle, 2012: Diagnosing snowband predictability using a multi-model ensemble system. Wea. Forecasting , 27, 565–585,

Clark, A. J., S. J. Weiss, J. S. Kain, I. L. Jirak, M.l Coniglio, C. J. Melick, C. Siewert, R. A. Sobash, P. T. Marsh, A. R. Dean, M. Xue, F. Kong, K. W. Thomas, Y. Wang, K. Brewster, J. Gao, X. Wang, J. Du, D. R. Novak, F. E. Barthold, M. J. Bodner , J. J. Levit, C. B. Entwistle, T. L. Jensen, and J. Correia Jr., 2012: An overview of the 2010 hazardous weather testbed experimental forecast program spring experiment. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc ., 93 , 55–74,

White, A. B., B. Colman, G. M. Carter, F. M. Ralph, R. S. Webb, D. G. Brandon, C. W. King, P. J. Neiman, D. J. Gottas, I. Jankov, K. F. Bril l, Y. Zhu, K. Cook, H. E. Buehner, H. Opitz, D. W. Reynolds, and L. J. Schick, 2012: NOAA's Rapid Response to the Howard A. Hanson Dam Flood Risk Management Crisis, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc ., 93,   189–207,

Bodner, M. J., N. W. Junker , R. H. Grumm, R. S. Schumacher, 2011: Comparison of atmospheric circulation patterns during the 2008 and 1993 historic midwest floods. NWA Digest , 35 , 103-119.

Brill, K. F. , and M. Pyle, 2010: The Response of Performance Metrics for Binary Forecasts to Hedging that Approaches Random Change, Wea. Forecasting ,   25,  1307–1314,


Junker, N. W., M. J. Brennan, F. Pereira, M. J. Bodner , and R. H. Grumm, 2009: Assessing the Potential for Rare Precipitation Events with Standardized Anomalies and Ensemble Guidance at the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc ., 90,  445–454,

Brill, K. F ., 2009: A general analytic method for assessing sensitivity to bias of performance measures for dichotomous forecasts. Wea. Forecasting , 24,  307–318, .

Brill, K. F. , and F. Mesinger, 2009: Applying a General Analytic Method for Assessing Bias Sensitivity to Bias-Adjusted Threat and Equitable Threat Scores, Wea. Forecasting , 24 , 1748–1754,

Market, P. S., R. L. Ebert-Cripe, and M. Bodner,  2007: Case study of a long-lived thundersnow event, N WA Digest , 31, 103-120.

Im, J.-S., Brill K. , and Danaher E. , 2006: Confidence interval estimation for quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) using Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts (SREF). Wea. Forecasting , 21 , 24–41,

Charba, J. P., D. W. Reynolds , B. E. McDonald, and G. M. Carter, 2003: Comparative Verification of Recent Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts in the National Weather Service: A Simple Approach for Scoring Forecast Accuracy, Wea. Forecasting, 18 ,  161–183.

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