SOUTH AMERICA FORECAST DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
319 PM EDT MON JUL 15 2024

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

SOUTH AMERICAN FORECAST BULLETIN FOR 15 JUL 2024 AT 1930 UTC:

A DRY PATTERN HAS ESTABLISHED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE SOUTH
AMERICAN DOMAIN ON MONDAY AND IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE
NEXT THREE DAYS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS TROPICAL NORTH
AMERICA...SOUTH-CENTRAL CHILE...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST BRASIL. ON
MONDAY...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS OVER NORTHEAST BRASIL
AND MEANDERS INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY FAVORING
DRIER CONDITIONS  FROM CENTRAL BRASIL INTO
BOLIVIA...PARAGUAY...NORTHERN ARGENTINA...AND URUGUAY. IN THE
LOWER LEVELS...THE DRY TRADE WINDS FROM THE EAST ARE EXPECTED OVER
MOST OF THE REGION. POTENTIAL FOR CONVERGENCE OF ANY AVAILABLE
MOISTURE IN THE COASTAL REGIONS OF THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF BRASIL
WILL FAVOR SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN EXTREME NORTHEAST
BRASIL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20MM ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE PASSING OF TROPICAL WAVES OVER THE GUIANAS...VENEZUELA...AND
COLOMBIA WILL FAVOR PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION. MOST OF THE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO THE NORTH OF FORECAST
DOMAIN. ON MONDAY...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-40MM
FROM EAST VENEZUELA TO THE GUIANAS. THE SAME WAVE WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN SOUTHERN VENEZUELA ON TUESDAY. SIMILAR
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA DUE TO A PASSING
TROPICAL WAVE. BY WEDNESDAY...THE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED IN EAST
COLOMBIA AND CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.

IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CONTINENT...A BLOCKING PATTERN IN
THE LOWER LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND INTO SOUTHERN
BRASIL...SOUTH BOLIVIA...PARAGUAY...AND ARGENTINA...AND WITH THE
ASSISTANCE OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN CENTRAL
BRASIL...WILL FAVOR FRONTAL PASSAGES TO REMAIN TO THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CHILE AND ARGENTINA. THEY ARE ALSO NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH PAST SOUTHERN PARAGUAY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. ON MONDAY...EXPECT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO PROPAGATE
OVER NORTHERN CHILE AND ARGENTINA. DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE IN THE REGION...GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-30MM ARE
EXPECTED IN SOUTH-CENTRAL CHILE...WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW. ON
TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION DECREASES TO MAXIMA OF 15MM IN CENTRAL
CHILE. ON WEDNESDAY...A NEW FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED WHICH WILL
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION.

ACOSTA...(WPC)