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Tropical Discussion
 
(Latest Discussion - Issued 1827Z May 27, 2022)
 
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
227 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2022

TROPICAL DISCUSSION FROM MAY 27/18 UTC: IN WESTERN MEXICO...A
NARROW UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TO EXTEND
FROM CHIHUAHUA INTO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL ENHANCE
UPPER DIVERGENCE AND ASCENT OVER THE SIERRA TARAHUMARA AND
NORTHERN SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL. LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL
LIMIT AMOUNTS TO 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM...BUT THEN PULLS
RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST...WHICH WILL FAVOR A DECREASE IN
ACCUMULATIONS THEREAFTER.

A MUCH WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST MEXICO AND CENTRAL
AMERICA GIVEN THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
ENHANCED WESTERLIES ALONG THE PACIFIC BASIN. THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER IS MONITORING THIS SYSTEM. IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE BROAD AREA OF ENHANCED CONVECTION...AN UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES
TO BUILD OVER THE REGION AND WILL SET FOOTHOLD THROUGH THE
FORECAST CYCLE OVER ALL OF CENTRAL AMERICA...WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND
WESTERN COLOMBIA. NORTHEASTERLY MID-UPPER FLOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE RIDGE...AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL WESTERLIES ALONG THE PACIFIC BASIN
OF CENTRAL AMERICA WILL FAVOR THE LARGEST ACCUMULATION ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THE PACIFIC BASIN FROM COSTA RICA INTO
SOUTHERN MEXICO. ON FRIDAY...THE LARGEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN
WESTERN GUATEMALA/CHIAPAS TO REACH 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
30-60MM. FROM THE GULF OF FONSECA/CENTRAL HONDURAS EST INTO
NORTHERN GUATEMALA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA
EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM. IN THE PACIFIC BASIN OF
COSTA RICA EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. IN CENTRAL
PANAMA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-30MM. ON SATURDAY...AN INCREASE IN
UPPER DIVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY WILL COUPLE WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
TO TRIGGER MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN COSTA RICA/WESTERN PANAMA. FROM
NORTHWEST COSTA RICA INTO CHIAPAS AND OAXACA/SOUTHERN VERACRUZ IN
MEXICO EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. FROM SAN
ANDRES/PROVIDENCIA ACROSS NORTHERN HONDURAS INTO BELIZE EXPECT
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EXPECT
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM. ON SUNDAY...EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM FROM CENTRAL PANAMA INTO THE GULF OF FONSECA
REGION AND ACROSS WESTERN HONDURAS/NORTHERN EL SALVADOR INTO
EASTERN CHIAPAS. FROM SAN ANDRES/PROVIDENCIA INTO BELIZE AND
CAMPECHE EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. IN SOUTHERN
OAXACA...FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL FAVOR
25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-125MM.

AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE EASTERN US WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST PLUME
IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN/CUBA...TO ENHANCE CONVECTION IN CUBA
AND THE BAHAMAS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL FAVOR
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM IN CUBA ON BOTH DAYS...WHILE IN
THE BAHAMAS EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM ON SATURDAY
INCREASING TO 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM ON SUNDAY.

THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
AN UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WHILE
STILL MEANDERING OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE A
ROBUST MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC
INTO THE NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE STABILIZING
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WILL LIMIT THE EFFECT OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...TO SUSTAIN A GENERALLY DECREASING TREND IN ACCUMULATIONS.
ON FRIDAY...EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN
HISPANIOLA...WHILE IN PUERTO RICO/VI AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED IN JAMAICA..SOUTHEAST CUBA AND IN WESTERN CUBA. ON
SATURDAY...EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN
HISPANIOLA...WHILE IN PUERTO RICO AND THE VI...AND JAMAICA AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15MM. ON SUNDAY...EXPECT ISOLATED
CONVECTION IN MOST REGIONS. IN HISPANIOLA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...EXPECT MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION TO PRODUCE 05-10MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 15MM.

IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...EXPECT A NOTICEABLE DECREASING TREND
AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE CARIBBEAN DECREASES IN
RELATION WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH...AND IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A GENERAL STABILIZATION IF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE LARGEST
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST COLOMBIA ON
FRIDAY...TO REACH 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-5-MM. EAST OF THESE
LOCATIONS INTO GUYANA EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON
SATURDAY EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN SOUTHERN
VENEZUELA/NORTHWEST BRASIL. ON SUNDAY EXPECT SIMILAR AMOUNTS IN
THESE REGIONS. IN THE GUIANAS...EXPECT AN INCREASE TO 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM AS A TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS THE REGION FORM
THE ATLANTIC.

TROPICAL WAVES/TUTT INDUCED PERTURBATIONS/TRADE WIND SURGES
INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC:
TYPE  INIT  SOF  NOF 28/00 28/12 29/00 29/12 30/00 30/12 31/00
TW     37W  12N  03S   41W   45W   49W   53W   56W   59W   62W
EW     68W  11N  02S   71W   73W   75W   78W   81W   84W   87W
TW     78W  13N  01S   80W   82W   85W   87W   89W   91W   93W

A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 37W. THIS WAVE WILL ARRIVE IN
THE GUIANAS ON SUNDAY TO FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.

AN EASTERLY WAVE INITIALIZED AT 68W WILL FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN WESTERN VENEZUELA AND EASTERN COLOMBIA ON
FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY IT FAVORS 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM IN
NORTHWEST COLOMBIA AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM IN SOUTHWEST/WESTERN
COLOMBIA. ON SUNDAY IT FAVORS 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM IN
WESTERN PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 78W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 13N. ON
FRIDAY...IT WILL FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN
CENTRAL PANAMA. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-60MM IN THE
PACIFIC BASIN OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA...AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM
IN NORTHEAST NICARAGUA AND NORTHERN HONDURAS. ON SUNDAY IT WILL
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 35-70MM FROM WESTERN NICARAGUA INTO SOUTHERN
CHIAPAS AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN EASTERN HONDURAS/NORTHEAST
NICARAGUA INTO BELIZE AND CAMPECHE.

GALVEZ / DIAWARA...WPC (USA)