TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
354 PM EDT TUE JUL 09 2024

FORECAST BULLETIN 09 JUL 2024 AT 2000 UTC: IN MEXICO...THE MOST
IMPORTANT STORY IS A TROPICAL WAVE PROPAGATING WESTWARD FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY TO EXTREME SOUTHWEST MEXICO BY THURSDAY.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST USA WILL CONTINUE
TO SUSTAIN WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MEXICO. THIS
WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON IN
AREAS NORTH OF SINALOA/DURANGO...LIMITING MODERATE PRECIPITATION
TO AREAS SOUTH OF SOUTHERN SINALOA/SOUTHERN DURANGO. ON
TUESDAY...THE TROPICAL WAVE CROSS THJE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL...WHERE EXPECT 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
40-80MM THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY PRECIPITATION WITH THE WAVE WILL FOCUS IN SOUTHWEST
MEXICO NORTH INTO NORTHERN JALISCO/NAYARIT...WHERE EXPECT
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. REMAINING ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL WILL FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. ON THURSDAY...INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE TROPICAL
WAVE AND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL
HIGHLIGHT PRECIPITATION IN JALISCO/NAYARIT/SOUTHERN SINALOA TO
FAVOR 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM.

A MOIST POOL IS PRESENT IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND...UNDER THE
VENTILATING INFLUENCE OF A WEAKENING TUTT...IT WILL COTNINUE TO
FAVOR THE REFORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA. THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. THIS INCREASES
TO MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ON WEDNESDAY AND DECREASES THEREAFTER.

LOW-LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE ACCELERATED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. A
TROPICAL WAVE IS PROPAGATING RAPIDLY...AND ON TUESDAY IS FORECAST
TO CROSS JAMAICA/SOUTHEAST CUBA...CROSS HONDURAS/NICARAGUA AND
NORTHERN COSTA RICA ON WEDNESDAY...AND REACH CHIAPAS/TABASCO ON
THURSDAY. THE RAPID SPEED OF THIS WAVE AND ASSOCIATION WITH A DRY
AIR MASS IN THE CARIBBEAN WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION. ON
WEDNESDAY...ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW INTO NICARAGUA/EASTERN HONDURAS
AND THE ISLANDS WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. ON THURSDAY THIS
WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN TABASCO/SOUTHERN VERACRUZ. ALSO ON
THURSDAY...AN EASTERLY WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN RAPIDLY CROM
PANAMA INTO COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA. GIVEN A BASIN-WIDE
ACCELERATION OF THE TRADES AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE PAPAGAYO
LOW-LEVEL JET...EXPECT ENHANCEMENT IN THE CYCLONIC TIER OF THE
JET. THIS WILL STIMULATE PRECIPITATION IN NORTHERN COSTA RICA AND
SOUTHEAST NICARAGUA WHERE EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA FO
30-60MM. TRAILING MOISTURE BEHIND THE EASTERLY WAVE WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN WEST PANAMA/SOUTH COSTA RICA ALSO ON
THURSDAY...AIDED BY ITCZ CONVERGENCE.

A QUIET PATTERN IS PRESENT IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY IS ORGANIZING WITH THE ITCZ/NET IN MID-SECTIONS OF THE
CONTINENT. ALSO...ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW IN WESTERN COLOMBIA WILL
FAVOR PERIODS OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION. THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN WESTERN AND NORTHWEST COLOMBIA...WHILE
A NEWLY-FORMED EASTERLY WAVE FAVORS MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN WESTERN
VENEZUELA/NORTHEAST COLOMBIA. ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-40MM IN WESTERN AND NORTHWEST COLOMBIA WHILE THE EASTERLY WAVE
FAVORS MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN PANAMA. ON THURSDAY...INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW INTO WESTERN COLOMBIA WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
ALSO ON THURSDAY...A TROPICAL WAVE ARRIVING FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO
GUYANA/EAST VENEZUELA WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.

GALVEZ...(WPC)
FERNANDER...(BDM)
LEDESMA...(WPC)
CLARKE...(CINWS)