TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
428 PM EDT MON JUL 08 2024

FORECAST BULLETIN 08 JUL 2024 AT 2000 UTC: A POTENT UPPER TROUGH
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH0CENTRAL USA EXTENDS AN AXIS INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS IS FAVORING WESTERLY FLOW...WHICH IS
SUSTAINING A BREAK IN DIURNAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTH
AMERICAN MONSOON. PRECIPITATION IN MEXICO IS FORECAST TO PRIMARILY
ORGANIZE WITH A TROPICAL WAVE FORECAST TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA ON MONDAY...OAXACA/CENTRAL VERACRUZ ON
TUESDAY...ALONG 100W ON WEDNESDAY AND IN WEST MEXICO NEAR 105W ON
THURSDAY. ON MONDAY EXPECT THE STRONGEST CONVECTION TO CLUSTER
AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM SOUTH GUATEMALA INTO THE CHIVELA
PASS...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 35-70MM WITH A RISK FOR MCS
FORMATION. A TROUGH IN OAXACA WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. IN THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...MAXIMA LIMITED TO 20-35MM DUE TO SHORT
RESIDENCE TIMES OF THUNDERSTORMS AND ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JETS. ON TUESDAY...THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WITH THE WAVE IS EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN
VERACRUZ/OAXACA WHERE EXPECT AMOUNTS OF 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
40-80MM. TRAILING MOISTURE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN
CHIAPAS/WEST GUATEMALA. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH ONSHORE FLOW IN CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL...WHERE AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO REACH
MAXIMA OF 40-80MM DUE TO OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT. IN SOUTHWEST
MEXICO EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.

TO THE EAST...A POTENT TUTT CENTERS NEAR 30N 73W AND IS RAPIDLY
RETROGRADING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS WHILE
WEAKENING. THIS SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND
ENHANCED CONVECTION WHICH IS LOCATED PRIMARILY TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE BAHAMAS. HOWEVER...PART OF THIS CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO
REACH THE EXTREME NORTHWEST BAHAMAS TO FAVOR LOCALIZED MAXIMA OF
20-35MM WITH A RISK FOR SQUALLY CONVECTION ON MONDAY. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVOLUTION THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE...AS MOST
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE BULK OF CONVECTION REMAINING JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...GIVEN CLOSENESS TO THE EXTREME
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER TUTT LOW FROM THE
EAST...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO
CONTINUE. BY TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY THERE IS CHANCE FOR
MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

IN THE CARIBBEAN...A TUTT LOW CENTERS OVER THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE/HAITI ON MONDAY. THE TUTT IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE TO
CENTER JUST WEST OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. IN
THE LOW LEVELS...A POTENT TRADE WIND SURGE AND SAHARAN DUST IS
PRESENT ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE SURGE IS
PROPAGATING ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS ON MONDAY AND IS FORECAST
TO LOSE DEFINITION ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING
TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS LIMITED IN THE CARIBBEAN...A
TROPICAL WAVE IS RAPIDLY PROPAGATING ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO
RICO/MONA PASSAGE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND IS ENHANCING CONVECTION
LOCALLY. THIS WILL FAVRO ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN PUERTO RICO
AND EASTERN HISPANIOLA ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY...AS MOISTURE FROM
THE WAVE INTERACTS WITH TERRAIN IN HISPANIOLA AND WITH THE
TUTT...EXPECT MAXIMA INCREASING TO 15-30MM IN HISPANIOLA. ON
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT PRECIPITATION WITH THE WAVE TO CLUSTER IN
EASTERN NICARAGUA WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. THIS WILL ALSO
FAVOR ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 20-40MM IN SOUTHERN BELIZE. IN CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CUBA...TRAILING MOISTURE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TUTT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. NOTE THAT
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERITY DEVELOPS ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL. AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES ACROSS HISPANIOLA ON
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MAXIMA OF 20-40MM IN AFTERNOON
CONVECTION.

IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...MOST ACTIVITY WILL CLUSTER WITH THE
NET/ITCZ IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRA VENEZUELA AS WELL AS
CENTRLA/NORTHERN COLOMBIA. EXPECT MAXIMA GENERALLY IN THE
20-45MM/DAY RANGE. OTHERWISE...LOWER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
NORTHERN GUIANAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DRY AIR MASS PRESENT IN THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC.

GALVEZ...(WPC)
FERNANDER...(BDM)
LEDESMA...(WPC)
CLARKE...(CINWS)