< Day 1 Outlook
Day 3 Outlook >
WPC Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook
Risk of 1 to 6 hour rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance at a point
Updated: 0824 UTC Sun Jun 24, 2018
Valid: 12 UTC Jun 25, 2018 - 12 UTC Jun 26, 2018
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
435 AM EDT Sun Jun 24 2018
Valid 12Z Mon Jun 25 2018 - 12Z Tue Jun 26 2018
...SLIGHT RISK REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MS VALLEY...
...Southern MN across IA/MO to KS/OK...
Closed mid level low pressure shifts east from the SD/NE border to
the MN/IA border Monday through Monday night. Remnant
activity/MCVs from Sunday night will be able to tap into an
environment with ample moisture/instability as it shifts ahead of
the surface moving into Missouri. Thinking is that this will lead
to redevelopment of new convection that will produce heavy to
potentially excessive rainfall. Limited instability will lift
north of the warm front and across IA into MN/WI and back to SD.
Largely maintained the Day 3 Slight Risk of excessive rain as it
becomes the latest Day 2 forecast with only minor modifications.
In particular, made few changes where the area had previously been
expanded south. One exception was on the northern periphery of
the boundary where we nudged areas northward a bit over concerns
about convection that fires close to the cut off low. The
numerical guidance has been struggling to handle the convection
even in the short term, so confidence is particular low with
respect to the finer scale details.
A cold front sags across the Carolinas Monday night. Precipitable
water values ahead of the front are forecast to be around 2
inches, which is 2 standard deviations above normal. Ample
instability will allow for thunderstorms and weakening mean flow
will lead to slow movement and potential for localized flash
flooding. A Marginal Risk of excessive rain was maintained.
Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt