MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0623
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
238 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...WEST COAST OF THE FL PENINSULA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 311837Z - 312340Z
 
SUMMARY...THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS
PARTS OF THE WESTERN FL PENINSULA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

DISCUSSION...AS OF 1830Z...AREA 88DS SHOWED AN INCREASING SHIELD
OF RAIN OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH EMBEDDED AREAS WHERE
RAINFALL RATES WERE ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. 
THAT AREA WAS MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST COAST OF THE FL PENINSULA. 
THINK THAT PROBLEMS DUE TO RUN OFF AND PONDING MAY OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHICH HAD
ALREADY RECEIVED 3 TO 5 INCHES OR MORE IN THE 24 HOUR PERIOD
ENDING AT 12Z THIS MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH 01/00Z WITH LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 30 KTS OR SO CONTINUING TO DRAW IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.5 INCHES ACROSS THIS PART OF THE
PENINSULA.  

SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED WARMING CLOUD TOPS
NEAR THE FL COAST...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT RAINFALL RATES OF 2
INCHES PER HOUR MAY NOT BE REALIZED BUT THE PERSISTENT NATURE OF
THE MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY STILL YIELD SOME
AMOUNTS OF 1.5 TO 3 INCHES PER 6 HOURS.  

THE 17Z RUN OF THE HRRR WAS MORE INCLINED TO KEEP THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL SOUTH OF OTHER GUIDANCE...DROPPING ITS HEAVIEST RAINFALL
IN THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE MPD AREA.  


BANN

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   29408246 27938202 27028218 27368292 28698289 
            29358308