MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0331
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
553 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST COLORADO...WESTERN TO CENTRAL
KANSAS...SOUTHERN NEBRASKA

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 192152Z - 200452Z

SUMMARY...CONVECTION IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY ACTIVE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM FAR
SOUTHEAST COLORADO---NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. 
AN INITIAL BATCH OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON---FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL ORGANIZED CONVECTION PUSHING
EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT AFTER 0000 UTC WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR GOES-16 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REGIONAL
RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY
OF THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  MUCAPE VALUES AS
PER SPC MESOANALYSIS AND RAP32 GUIDANCE ARE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG
IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT STRETCHING FROM SOUTHEAST
COLORADO---ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA.  THE STRENGTHENING MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...PW VALUES 1.5 TO 2+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE
MEAN...INTO THIS AXIS OF VERY UNSTABLE AIR IN THE VICINITY OF THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ENHANCING CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LIFT ENHANCED FURTHER BY UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SPREADING VERY WELL DEFINED UPPER DIFLUENCE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY ACROSS WESTERN TO CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER 0000 UTC JUNE 20. 

MODEL WISE...THE 2000 UTC HRRR AND HRRR EXPERIMENTAL ARE SHOWING
SIMILAR EVOLUTION TO THE CONVECTION NEAR THIS FRONT...WITH CELLS
INITIALLY CONCENTRATED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL
MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY PUSHING EASTWARD FROM EASTERN
COLORADO...ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AFTER 0000 UTC.  THE
INITIAL CELL DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE FRONT IS SHOWING SLOW MOTION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL OF 1-2" IN AN
HOUR POSSIBLE.  THIS MAY BE FOLLOWED BY MORE PROGRESSIVE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION PRODUCING ADDITIONAL MORE WIDESPREAD REGION OF 1"+ PER
HOUR AFTER 0000 UTC.  IN AREAS OF REPEAT ACTIVITY...THE POTENTIAL
FOR RUNOFF ISSUES WILL BE INCREASING.

ORAVEC

ATTN...WFO...BOU...DDC...GID...GLD...ICT...LBF...OAX...PUB...
TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   41139623 40739588 39249729 37080134 37050185
            37470239 38100256 38430290 38760343 38870408
            38980457 39260469 39840381 40200296 40570108
            40630018 40759984 41099761