MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0126
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1100 PM EDT SUN APR 17 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...N CENT TEXAS...S OKLAHOMA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 180300Z - 180800Z
 
SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL TRAINING IN THE SHORT TERM TO PROLONG FLASH
FLOODING CONDITIONS...LONGER TERM THREAT INCREASING EASTWARD ALONG
RED RIVER AS COMPLEX SHIFTS

DISCUSSION...CURRENT UPPER LEVEL SETUP IDEAL FOR INCREASED UVV
MAINTAINING MODEST CONVECTION EVEN THOUGH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED.   WV LOOP SHOWS SHORTWAVE LIFTING ACROSS W OK WITH
ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX LIFTING NORTH AS WELL PROVIDING STRONG RIGHT
ENTRANCE ASCENT ALONG WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW EASTWARD.  THIS IS
ALIGNED WITH SSW-NNE FRONTAL ZONE THAT CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN SOME
MODEST SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO CONVECT AND
TAP LIMITED 500 J/KG INSTABILITY FOR SOME STRONGER CORES THAT ARE
A BIT MORE FRACTURED WITH RATES IN THE .75-1.25"/HR RANGE.  MCS
COMPLEX ACROSS E TX SEEMS TO BE OBSTRUCTING MUCH OF THE BEST
FLOW...BUT A CHANNEL WEST OF THE COMPLEX OVER THE HILL COUNTY IS
CLEAR TO SUPPORT SOME UPSTREAM REDEVELOPMENT THAT GIVEN STEERING
FLOW IS LIKELY TO REPEAT ACROSS THE SAME AREAS. GIVEN ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS WITH FFG VALUES IN THE SUB 1.5" RANGE EVEN AT LONGER
3-6HR DURATIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE EXCEEDED.  

TOWARD 06Z...A NEW SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE BIG BEND OF TX
WILL ONCE AGAIN PROVIDE GENERAL LARGER SCALE ASCENT...RAP
FORECASTS ARE FOR LOWER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND A WEAK CYCLONIC
ZONE TO FORM ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO ONCE AGAIN POOL ALONG THE
FRONT WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITIES ADVECTING IN TO SUPPORT AND
INCREASED MST TRANSPORT WITH TPWS UP TO 1.75" DUE TO SOME OF THE
MOISTENING OF THE PRE-CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS N CENTRAL
TX...WITH DECENT FORCING TO MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SHIFTING
SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD DFW METRO AND S CENTRAL/SE OK BY 07-08Z. 
THOUGH GUIDANCE IS A BIT HIGHER HERE...THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND
SLIGHTLY MORE VIGOROUS POTENTIAL POSES A FLASH FLOOD THREAT HERE
AS WELL.  MCS COMPLEX TO THE EAST DOES REDUCE CONFIDENCE IN THIS
EXACT EVOLUTION IS CONTINGENT ON FORCING CONVECTING ON THE SW SIDE
OF THE MCS OVER E TX. 

GALLINA 

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SHV...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   34829673 34769534 34099497 33589561 32919718 
            32149913 32329965 33079907 34589780