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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Latest Discussion - Issued 0742Z Mar 19, 2024)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 342 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 12Z Tue Mar 19 2024 - 12Z Thu Mar 21 2024 ...Lake effect snow continues across the Great Lakes before a developing low pressure system spreads snowfall east into northern New England on Wednesday... ...Light to moderate snow enters the northern Plains midweek and pushes into the Upper Midwest on Thursday... ...Shower and thunderstorm chances return to the southern Plains and western Gulf Coast... Cold northwest flow crossing over relatively warm lake waters will lead to additional lake effect snow showers today, which will be further enhanced as a low pressure system crosses from southern Ontario, Canada towards Maine by early Thursday. Greatest probabilities for at least 4 inches of snow exist across the eastern U.P. of Michigan and the Tug Hill Plateau of western New York. As the low pressure system deepens over eastern Maine on Thursday, additional snowfall is expected to develop just to its northwest throughout northern Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine. Medium probabilities (40-70%) for at least 6 inches of snow is currently depicted across this region. Gusty winds and below average temperatures are forecast in the system's wake, with highs only expected to reach into the 30s and 40s throughout the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast. Snow potential also returns to the northern Plains and northern Rockies on Wednesday due to the combination of a nearby stationary front and favorable jet stream dynamics. Far northwest Montana and the Yellowstone region currently have the best chances for accumulating snow to add up to over 4 inches. By Thursday, a developing low pressure system along the aforementioned stationary front is anticipated to progress eastward across the northern Plains and towards the Upper Midwest. This will spread light to moderate snow from parts of the Dakotas to central/southern Minnesota, far northern Iowa, and Wisconsin. Uncertainty remains on exactly where the heaviest snowbands may set up, but residents should remain weather aware and prepare for potentially difficult travel across the Upper Midwest between Thursday night and Friday morning. For the southern Plains, rain and thunderstorm chances return on Wednesday as an upper low lingering over the Southwest finally ejects eastward. A few isolated thunderstorms could turn severe over western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, as well as south-central Texas. By Thursday, heavy rain may develop along the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast, which could lead to isolated flooding concerns. As far as the temperature highlights for the short term time period, a frost/freeze threat remains this morning from the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Southeast as lows dip into the 20s and 30s. This cold snap is forecast to be short-lived as temperatures warm to near average by Thursday across the South. Meanwhile, above average temperatures are expected today across the central Plains and Northwest. Afternoon highs could break daily temperature records throughout the northern Great Basin as thermometer readings soar into the 70s. Snell Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php