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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Latest Discussion - Issued 2000Z Dec 12, 2018)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM EST Wed Dec 12 2018 Valid 00Z Thu Dec 13 2018 - 00Z Sat Dec 15 2018 ...Strong storm to affect the southern Plains into the Gulf Coast region... ...Heavy rain and mountain snow for western Washington tonight into Thursday... A developing storm that is currently moving through the western U.S. has been associated with gusty winds along and west of the Continental Divide as well as heavy snow in the northern Washington Cascades and northern Rockies. This storm system will eject into the southern Plains by early Thursday morning with low pressure tracking through northern Texas and a powerful cold front trailing to its south. High Wind Watches and Warnings are in effect for portions of the southern to central High Plains given the expectation of wind gusts up to 60 mph beginning tonight and lasting through the day on Thursday. High winds and low relative humidity will also have the effect of an increased risk of spreading of wildfires across far western Texas into southern Texas. Cold temperatures advecting in from the north into Texas are expected to allow for snow or a rain/snow mix with light accumulations possible for north-central Texas late Thursday. Moisture returning ahead of the system's cold front will help to fuel locally heavy rain in the vicinity of the Arklatex and a low-end threat for severe storms as highlighted by the Storm Prediction Center's Marginal Risk extending from eastern Texas into the central Gulf Coast for Thursday. The cold front and associated heavy rain will spread east along the Gulf Coast states Thursday night through Friday while steady, light to moderate intensity rain falls to the north from the Ozarks into the central Appalachians, eventually reaching the Mid-Atlantic region by Friday afternoon. Across the Northwest, a cold front will approach Washington tonight but stall, allowing for a prolonged period of onshore flow into northwest Washington tonight. Heavy mountain snow for the northern Cascades and possible flooding for the Olympic Peninsula are expected given several inches of rain are expected for upslope favored locations by Thursday evening. A brief lull in precipitation intensity will occur Thursday night in advance of another storm system and strong low pressure to near the Pacific Northwest on Friday. Another round of rain and mountain snow, though not as heavy, will be tied to this system along with falling snow levels in the wake of the cold front Friday into Saturday. Farther east into the north-central U.S., downsloping flow will allow high temperatures to warm into the 30s and 40s, roughly 10 to 20 degrees above average both Thursday and Friday. Otto Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php