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Short Range Public Discussion
(Latest Discussion - Issued 1959Z Oct 22, 2018)
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 358 PM EDT Mon Oct 22 2018 Valid 00Z Tue Oct 23 2018 - 00Z Thu Oct 25 2018 ...Locally heavy rain and storms are possible for the Four Corners, Southwest U.S., and into Texas... ...Snow possible in the Great Lakes region and into northern New England... A combination of weather features will continue to create active weather for parts of the western U.S. into Texas over the next couple of days. First, an upper-level trough is forecast to push through the Four Corners and Southwest, and sufficient moisture will lead to showers and scattered thunderstorms in those areas. Moisture could be tied to Hurricane Willa in the Eastern Pacific. The focus of this rain will shift farther east into western Texas by Tuesday and Wednesday. Marginal Risks of both flash flooding and severe weather are in place for some areas (see the Storm Prediction Center for information on the severe weather threat). Another weather maker will be a surface low near the southern tip of Texas and a stationary front off the Gulf Coast. Rain and thunderstorms will continue along the western and central Gulf Coast, and Marginal Risks of flash flooding are in effect. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible in Florida as well due to the stationary front. All of this will lead to below normal temperatures.--the Southern High Plains in particular will have high temperatures 15 to 25 degrees below average. A surface low pressure system is expected to continue moving eastward through the Great Lakes region and into New England through Wednesday, and some generally light precipitation is likely. Near the Great Lakes, snow showers are possible, but accumulating snow over an inch will likely be confined to northern New England. 6 to 10 inches of snow is forecast for northern Maine. The cold front associated with this low will sweep through the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic, bringing another shot of cold air and below normal temperatures to northern and central parts of the U.S. On the other hand, the West will see above normal temperatures through midweek. Tate Graphics available at