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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Latest Discussion - Issued 1944Z Mar 18, 2024)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 344 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Valid 00Z Tue Mar 19 2024 - 00Z Thu Mar 21 2024 ...Heavy lake-effect snow downwind from Lakes Erie and Ontario; moderate to heavy lake-effect snow over the eastern U.P. of Michigan... ...Light to moderate snow over parts of the Northern High Plains on Wednesday... ...There is a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of Florida... A front moving off of Florida will create showers and strong to severe thunderstorms over Florida. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of Florida through Tuesday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. By Tuesday, the showers and thunderstorms move off the southern tip of Florida as the front moves offshore. Meanwhile, upper-level energy over the Ohio Valley into the Northeast will move off the Northeast Coast by Tuesday morning. Additionally, upper-level energy will move over the Great Lakes into the Northeast on Tuesday. Furthermore, a second front moving south and eastward from Central Canada will move over parts of the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley on Monday evening, moving to the Great Lakes by Tuesday and to the Northeast Coast by Wednesday. The energy, and later the front, will aid in creating lake-effect snow downwind from the Great Lakes through Wednesday. With the front, moderate to heavy snow will develop over the eastern U.P. of Michigan Tuesday evening into Wednesday. Additionally, heavy lake-effect snow develops downwind from Lakes Erie and Ontario. Further, moderate snow will develop over the higher elevations of the Northeast through Wednesday evening and snow showers over parts of the Ohio Valley and the Central Appalachians through Tuesday afternoon. Along the western end of the front moving out of Canada, snow will develop over parts of the Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. Moreover, an upper-level low over the Southern California/Southwest will slowly move eastward to the Southern High Plains by Wednesday evening. The energy will produce snow and lower-elevation rain over parts of the Southwest and Southern Rockies, lingering through Wednesday afternoon. As the energy moves out of the Rockies, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Southern Plains. Farther north, a dissipating front moves near the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday into Wednesday afternoon and will produce rain over parts of the Northwest. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php