Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
309 AM EDT Wed Jul 18 2018
Valid Jul 18/0000 UTC thru Jul 21/1200 UTC
...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
12Z Model Evaluation...with Preliminary Preferences and Confidence
...Overall Model Analysis for the CONUS...
Overall Preference: Blend of 00Z ECMWF, UKMET, CMC
General Confidence: Average
The ECMWF and UKMET trended a closer to the GFS with their 00Z
runs, but the preliminary preference remains unchanged.
Models continue to show the greatest differences with a trough
digging into the Upper Midwest by late in the week, and an
associated broad trough over the Southeast. The 00Z NAM and GFS
are more amplified with the digging trough and generally show
lower heights than the consensus of the remaining global models
over the eastern half of the CONUS. The NAM is also slightly
faster with the progression of the surface low in the Great Lakes.
The preference was to lean toward a blend of the remaining models
(12Z ECMWF, UKMET, CMC), as they are better supported by the range
of NAEFS and ECMWF ensemble members (GFS is more amplified than
just about all of them). Elsewhere, models show greater
similarity, and a general model blend could conceivably be used.
Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml