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Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
(Latest Discussion - Issued 1516Z Aug 21, 2018)
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Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1112 AM EDT Tue Aug 21 2018

Valid 00Z Wed Aug 22 2018 - 00Z Wed Aug 29 2018

...Threat of Hurricane Lane impacting Hawaii increases late this
...Windy and unsettled weather continues into the weekend and
early next week...

Hurricane Lane at category-4 intensity continues to edge closer
toward Hawaii from the southeast.  The GFS has been advertising a
hard right turn toward the main island chain through a weakness in
the high pressure ridge to the north.  The ECMWF, which had shown
a more westerly track farther to the south, has continued to
adjust its track closer and closer toward Hawaii in better
agreement with the GFS solutions.  Based on the recent model
trend, it appears that the threat of Hurricane Lane impacting
Hawaii has increased for Thursday into Friday time frame.  Lane is
forecast to weaken as it approaches Hawaii but unsettled weather
is expected to continue into the weekend and early next week as
another disturbance in the wake of Lane could acquire some
tropical characteristics while the circulation of Lane is forecast
to resume a general westerly track.  The GFS has begun to
introduce the idea of binary interaction between these two
circulations, lending new uncertainties to the future track of
Lane for this weekend into early next week.