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< Day 2 Outlook
 
WPC Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook
Risk of 1 to 6 hour rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance at a point
 
Updated: 1949 UTC Fri May 27, 2022
Valid: 12 UTC May 29, 2022 - 12 UTC May 30, 2022
 
Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
 
Forecast Discussion
 
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
349 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022
 
Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun May 29 2022 - 12Z Mon May 30 2022 

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS 
OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

Deep troughing ejecting out of the Northern Rockies into the 
Northern Plains will lead to a broad area of enhanced lift across 
the eastern Dakotas and Upper Midwest Sunday/Sunday night. 
Embedded shortwave impulses within the flow will lead to multiple 
convective clusters supporting heavy rainfall. Ingredients 
continue to look favorable/conducive for heavy rainfall with an 
environment characterized by anomalously high PWs, sufficient 
instability, and strong low level moisture transport. Only minor 
changes were made to the Marginal Risk for this update and as the 
event draws near, could see an upgrade to a Slight somewhere but 
confidence in those details remain low at this point. 


Chenard/Taylor
 
Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt
 

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