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< Day 2 Outlook
 
WPC Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook
Risk of 1 to 6 hour rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance at a point
 
Updated: 1959 UTC Mon Oct 3, 2022
Valid: 12 UTC Oct 05, 2022 - 12 UTC Oct 06, 2022
 
Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
 
Forecast Discussion
 
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Mon Oct 03 2022
 
Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Oct 05 2022 - 12Z Thu Oct 06 2022 

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS 
OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...

...2030Z Update...

No changes to the previous forecast were made with this update. 
Expected precipitation across much of NM remains unchanged from 
the previous. There is certainly some room for a localized upgrade 
to a SLGT along the mountains, particularly the Sacramento 
Mountains, but that will be dependent on how much rain is picked 
up in this area both today and Tuesday. 

For the Northeast, the coastal low will finally begin to move out 
to sea on Wednesday. There will likely be lingering rain along the 
Jersey Shore north to coastal RI/MA, but rainfall amounts should 
stay below FFG thresholds.

Wegman

...Previous Forecast...

The frontal boundary will continue to press southward into the 
Southern Plains. Showers and thunderstorms will persist along this 
boundary, producing moderate to heavy rainfall across parts of the 
Southwest and Southern Rockies. The threat for excessive rainfall 
will remain elevated given the recent wet pattern and available 
moisture to tap into. A Marginal Risk covers New Mexico, eastern 
Arizona, southern Colorado and parts of western Texas.

Campbell
 
Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt
 

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