WPC Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook
Risk of 1 to 6 hour rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance at a point
Updated: 1959 UTC Mon Oct 3, 2022
Valid: 12 UTC Oct 05, 2022 - 12 UTC Oct 06, 2022
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Mon Oct 03 2022
Valid 12Z Wed Oct 05 2022 - 12Z Thu Oct 06 2022
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...
No changes to the previous forecast were made with this update.
Expected precipitation across much of NM remains unchanged from
the previous. There is certainly some room for a localized upgrade
to a SLGT along the mountains, particularly the Sacramento
Mountains, but that will be dependent on how much rain is picked
up in this area both today and Tuesday.
For the Northeast, the coastal low will finally begin to move out
to sea on Wednesday. There will likely be lingering rain along the
Jersey Shore north to coastal RI/MA, but rainfall amounts should
stay below FFG thresholds.
The frontal boundary will continue to press southward into the
Southern Plains. Showers and thunderstorms will persist along this
boundary, producing moderate to heavy rainfall across parts of the
Southwest and Southern Rockies. The threat for excessive rainfall
will remain elevated given the recent wet pattern and available
moisture to tap into. A Marginal Risk covers New Mexico, eastern
Arizona, southern Colorado and parts of western Texas.
Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt