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< Day 2 Outlook
 
WPC Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook
Risk of 1 to 6 hour rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance at a point
 
Updated: 0807 UTC Sun Jul 12, 2020
Valid: 12 UTC Jul 14, 2020 - 12 UTC Jul 15, 2020
 
Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
 
Forecast Discussion
 
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
456 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020
 
Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Jul 14 2020 - 12Z Wed Jul 15 2020 

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE CENTRAL 
PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND FOR A PORTION OF NORTHERN 
NEW ENGLAND...

...Plains to northern Great Lakes...
A broad upper trough will persist over the north-central CONUS 
from a closed low west of Hudson Bay. This will slow the 
progression of the cold front pushing southeast across the 
north-central Plains and western Great Lakes Tuesday/Tuesday 
night. Ample Gulf moisture streaming up the Plains and Midwest 
will interact with this front/prefrontal activity and make for a 
broad area of excessive rain risk. Raised a large Marginal from 
the central High Plains of CO/KS/NE across IA/southern MN/WI to 
northern MI for this prefrontal activity. Despite the front 
slowing the activity should be generally progressive in the 
increasing westerly flow, so no Slight Risks were raised at this 
time. The portion of this risk area with the most wet antecedent 
conditions are over east-central WI, so will need to see if any of 
the activity will slow/repeat instead of being progressive.


...Northern New England...
The lingering low over interior northern New England through 
Tuesday looks to maintain an east-west frontal boundary over 
northern NH/southern Maine which would be a focus of convergence 
for above normal moisture and potentially heavy rain. Given this 
should be a narrow corridor, went with a small Marginal Risk area 
for now, but the placement of this front has uncertainty, so the 
position is likely to change going forward.

Jackson

 
Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt
 

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