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< Day 2 Outlook
 
WPC Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook
Risk of 1 to 6 hour rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance at a point
 
Updated: 0718 UTC Sat Apr 1, 2023
Valid: 12 UTC Apr 03, 2023 - 12 UTC Apr 04, 2023
 
Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
 
Forecast Discussion
 
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
323 AM EDT Sat Apr 01 2023
 
Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Apr 03 2023 - 12Z Tue Apr 04 2023 

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN AND AROUND 
SOUTHERN AL & THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

While there are differences amongst the guidance mass fields, 
there is a general signal for a moisture plume with precipitable 
water values at or above 1.5" to become stuck vaguely near the FL 
border with AL and GA.  Instability, low-level inflow, and 
effective bulk shear appear sufficient for convective 
organization.  The flow should be fairly unidirectional with 
height from the west-southwest, leading to concerns for cell 
training.  With low-level inflow slightly convergent, cell mergers 
can't be ruled out either.  The low- to mid-level frontogenesis 
seen on Sunday should be exiting to the east and northeast.  The 
guidance spread in amounts is fairly wide, with the 00z NAM the 
driest and the 00z ECMWF the wettest, showing local amounts of 5". 
 Soil moisture across portions of southern AL and the FL Panhandle 
and Big Bend is elevated, and rainfall during the day Saturday 
(and possibly Sunday) could lead to further saturation.  The model 
guidance has a general signal for 1-3" in this area, which could 
fall as quickly as an hour or two.  Considering the above, a 
Marginal Risk area was added for this region.

Roth
 
Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt
 

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