Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
323 AM EDT Sat Apr 01 2023
 
Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Apr 02 2023 - 12Z Mon Apr 03 2023 

A southern stream shortwave interacting with a Gulf Coast warm 
front along with sufficient moisture/instability is expected to 
produce locally heavy rainfall from eastern Texas into the Lower 
Mississippi Valley.  Its general progression should keep amounts 
from becoming particularly extreme.  Some low- to mid-level 
frontogenesis tracking roughly between the ArkLaTex, near the 
AR/LA border, and through the ArkLaMiss into MS, but even amongst 
the GFS and NAM guidance the axis of such is different.  As the 
placement remains a question mark due to the north-south spread in 
the guidance, with the 00z Canadian Regional unusually on the 
southern side and the 00z NAM remaining up north.  The ECMWF has 
been steadily shifting northward.  Instability and low-level 
inflow/effective bulk shear should be sufficient for convective 
organization.  Hourly rain totals up to 2" with local amounts in 
the 2-4" range are expected in this region.  A couple narrow 
swaths of 1-2" of rainfall fell Friday into Friday Night across 
southern AR and from northeast TX across northern LA and should 
have saturated soils to some degree.  The Slight Risk remains in 
place and like the QPF splits the difference in the guidance.  
  
Roth
 
Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt