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WPC Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook Risk of 1 to 6 hour rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance at a point
Updated: 0716 UTC Sat Apr 1, 2023
Valid: 12 UTC Apr 02, 2023 - 12 UTC Apr 03, 2023
Forecast Discussion
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
323 AM EDT Sat Apr 01 2023
Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Apr 02 2023 - 12Z Mon Apr 03 2023
A southern stream shortwave interacting with a Gulf Coast warm
front along with sufficient moisture/instability is expected to
produce locally heavy rainfall from eastern Texas into the Lower
Mississippi Valley. Its general progression should keep amounts
from becoming particularly extreme. Some low- to mid-level
frontogenesis tracking roughly between the ArkLaTex, near the
AR/LA border, and through the ArkLaMiss into MS, but even amongst
the GFS and NAM guidance the axis of such is different. As the
placement remains a question mark due to the north-south spread in
the guidance, with the 00z Canadian Regional unusually on the
southern side and the 00z NAM remaining up north. The ECMWF has
been steadily shifting northward. Instability and low-level
inflow/effective bulk shear should be sufficient for convective
organization. Hourly rain totals up to 2" with local amounts in
the 2-4" range are expected in this region. A couple narrow
swaths of 1-2" of rainfall fell Friday into Friday Night across
southern AR and from northeast TX across northern LA and should
have saturated soils to some degree. The Slight Risk remains in
place and like the QPF splits the difference in the guidance.
Roth
Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
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