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Day 2 Outlook >
 
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook
Risk of 1 to 6 hour rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance at a point
 
Updated: 0053 UTC Sat Nov 23, 2019
Valid: 01 UTC Nov 23, 2019 - 12 UTC Nov 23, 2019
 
Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
 
Forecast Discussion
 
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
800 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2019
 
Day 1
Valid 01Z Sat Nov 23 2019 - 12Z Sat Nov 23 2019 

...A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXISTS FROM PORTIONS OF 
THE WESTERN GULF COAST INTO THE MID-SOUTH...

...Western Gulf Coast / Lower Mississippi Valley / Tennessee 
Valley... 
0100 UTC Update -- Updates to the day 1 ERO were purely based on 
the latest observational trends -- i.e. paring the western 
periphery from the Upper TX Coast through portions of western LA 
-- as the going outlook elsewhere downstream remains on track. 
-Hurley  

...Previous Discussion...
A slow moving axis of 1.25-1.75" precipitable water values shifts 
eastward across the western Gulf coast into the Lower Mississippi 
Valley into the Mid-South today in an area of upper level 
divergence to the south and southeast of an upper level trough 
moving out of the southern Rockies into the Midwest. Much like 
Thursday/Thursday night, the main issues on Friday precluding a 
more widespread threat of flash flooding/excessive rainfall are 
expected to be instability, as the highest instability remains 
across portions of southeast TX and LA this afternoon and evening, 
and drier than normal conditions as of late, with most areas 
receiving <50% of their average rainfall during the past couple of 
weeks.  Areas closer to the Gulf Coast close to the instability 
pool (mainly across LA and MS) stand the best chance of 1-2" 
hourly rain totals, but a few hours of training would be necessary 
to reach the three hourly flash flood guidance values.  The 00z 
HREF probabilities of 1"+ an hour are highest in this region, but 
remain under 40% even during their peak in the 19z-01z time frame. 
 The high bar for local amounts appears to be 3", which would 
flirt with the three hourly flash flood guidance values.  A 
marginal risk for the region still appears to be the best course 
of action, which maintained good continuity both temporally and 
spatially.

Roth/Burke
 
Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
 

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