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Day 2 Outlook >
 
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook
Risk of 1 to 6 hour rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance at a point
 
Updated: 2306 UTC Mon Oct 3, 2022
Valid: 01 UTC Oct 04, 2022 - 12 UTC Oct 04, 2022
 
Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
 
Forecast Discussion
 
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
708 PM EDT Mon Oct 03 2022
 
Day 1
Valid 01Z Tue Oct 04 2022 - 12Z Tue Oct 04 2022 

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS 
OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THE COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC STATES...


...Coastal Mid-Atlantic States...
A strong coastal low that is nearly stationary centered off the 
coast of the Delmarva continues to wrap bands of mostly light to 
moderate rain into portions of the Mid-Atlantic. The bands could 
develop some convective elements across the Eastern Shore 
overnight, and some of the activity over Long Island has shown 
some modest convective tendency recently.  Most of the convection 
has been confined to areas over the ocean east of center.  There 
is greater uncertainty than usual as to where the core of the 
heaviest rain will set up, so the Marginal Risk area is focused on 
where rain is ongoing now along with some of the mesoscale 
guidance projections, which have been shifty as of late. 


...Southwest...
A shortwave dropping into the base of the upper-level trough will 
encounter a rather moist airmass has triggered rounds of diurnally 
driven convection. Any of these thunderstorms may produce moderate 
to heavy rainfall with the potential for flash flooding over the 
next several hours, especially across areas of complex terrain and 
burn scar areas. QPF amounts may be as high was 1 to 2 inches 
therefore the Marginal Risk remains in effect for the Four Corners 
region and into parts of the lower Colorado Basin.  The risk area 
was expanded per recently issued Mesoscale Precipitation 
Discussion #1073.

Roth/Wegman/Campbell
 
Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
 

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