Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1156 AM EDT Sat Apr 01 2023
 
Day 1
Valid 16Z Sat Apr 01 2023 - 12Z Sun Apr 02 2023 

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less 
than 5 percent.

Locally heavy rainfall remains probable across portions of AL/GA 
into the FL panhandle. However amounts exceeding flash flood 
guidance appear unlikely, and thus we opted to remove the Marginal 
risk with this update.

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to move 
across portions of PA/NY this afternoon. While these storms will 
produce briefly heavy rain, the quick movement of the cells should 
generally prevent a flood threat. There is some chance we could 
see localized urban high water across portions of eastern PA 
towards NYC as storms enter a slightly more unstable environment 
with higher lower level dewpoints. However, even here storms will 
be moving so quick that the flood risk should be low. The overall 
environment certainly favors severe weather as the main impact 
with this activity, and thus while the urban minor flood threat is 
non-zero, we will continue to go with no areas in the ERO.

Chenard
 
Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt