MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0430
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
154 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST AZ...EXT WEST CENTRAL NM...

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 111800Z - 120000Z

SUMMARY...LIMITED ORGANIZATION BUT SCATTERED QUICK HIGHLY
EFFICIENT WET MICROBURST WITH 1-2" IN LESS THAN AN HOUR TO POSE
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING RISK. 

DISCUSSION...GOES-16 1-MINUTE VISIBLE .5KM LOOP SHOWS A BROAD AREA
OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION WITH SCATTERED TCU BECOMING DEEPER CBS
WITH EXPANDING ANVILS PARTICULARLY ACROSS SE AZ VERY NEAR A
REMNANT MCV THAT CROSSED INTO COCHISE COUNTY.  A MID-LEVEL TROF
CAN BE ANALYZED THROUGH VWP AND GOES-16 WV SUITE EXTENDING NORTH
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SUN VALLEY AND ARCHING BACK TOWARD THE
MEAN LARGER SCALE CENTER OVER SE CA.  NORTH AND EAST OF THIS TROF
MOISTURE IS POOLED THROUGH A GREAT DEPTH AS FAR NORTH AS NORTH
CENTRAL AZ TO BACK TO CENTRAL NM. CIRA LPWS OVER .2" IN THE 3-5H
LAYER FAN BACK FROM SE COCONINO, AZ TO SOCORRO, NM COUNTIES. 
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR IS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST OF THIS AXIS WITH 7-5H
OVER .5" PW...WHICH IS VERIFIED WITH THE 12Z ABQ SOUNDING COMPARED
TO FGZ & 74626.  NEAR THE MCV DEEPER MOISTURE IS POOLED WITH TUS
SOUNDING INDICATING TPWS TO 1.8". 

EVEN THOUGH CLOUD COVER WAS MDT TO SOLID THIS MORNING...BREAKS
QUICKLY EVOLVED EVEN VERY NEAR THE MCV ITSELF AND FURTHER WEST IN
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE OF W PIMA COUNTY. THIS WAS ALSO THE CASE FOR
CATRON/SOCORRO COUNTIES IN NM...AND AS SUCH INSTABILITY INCREASED
SUFFICIENTLY OVER 1500 SBCAPES PER RAP ANALYSIS.  WITH NEARLY ZERO
CAPPING...THE CELLS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING ON HIGHEST TERRAIN
LOCATED IN THESE BREAKS. GIVEN DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE CELLS WILL BE
VERY EFFICIENT WITH LIMITED LOSS TO EVAPORATION WHEN FALLING. 
INITIALLY RATES WILL BE AT OR BELOW 1" IN THE 30 MINUTES/1HR OF
THE UP/DOWN CYCLE OF THESE INITIAL CELLS.  THE LIMITING FACTOR TO
THESE CELLS IS ORGANIZATION AS WINDS (PARTICULARY AT CLOUD BASE)
ARE LESS THAN 10KTS THROUGHOUT THE DOMAIN.  ONLY A VERY SMALL ZONE
OF 10-15KT AT 8-7H CAN BE ANALYZED ON THE NORTH AND EAST SIDE OF
THE MCV LIFTING NORTHWARD ALONG THE AZ/NM LINE. SO THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LONGER DURATION OR SLIGHTLY INCREASED ORGANIZATION
HERE.  

INITIALLY FF RISK WILL BE LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE UNTIL
INSTABILITY FURTHER INCREASES AND PEAKS AROUND THE 20-22Z TIME
FRAME AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS ARE MORE FREQUENT ALLOWING
FOR BROADER/STRONGER UPDRAFTS/OVER-TURNING.  STILL WITHOUT THE
MAINTAINED INFLOW...WET MICROBURSTS WITH  1-2" TOTALS IN A VERY
SHORT TIME (LESS THAN 1 HOUR) OVER THIS BROADER AREA OF THE
DOWNDRAFT ARE MORE LIKELY TO POSE FLASH FLOODING RISKS IN LINE
WITH HRRRE NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES OF 1"/1HR RUNNING ABOUT
50-90% NEAR THE MCV FROM 19Z-21Z SHIFTING TOWARD THE DEEPER
MOISTURE BAND TO THE NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM INTO NM
TOWARD 00Z.   AS SUCH FLASH FLOODING IS CONSIDERED POSSIBLE BUT
HIGHLY LOCALIZED.

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   35081167 34961056 34600938 34730843 34310683
            33580709 33050788 32300848 31520898 31180939
            31501181 32491197 33221210 34191243 34791222