Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
The Weather Prediction Center

 
 

 

Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Facebook Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Twitter
NCEP Quarterly Newsletter
WPC Home
Analyses and Forecasts
   National High & Low
   WPC Discussions
   Surface Analysis
   Days ½-2½ CONUS
   Days 3-7 CONUS
   Days 4-8 Alaska
   QPF
   PQPF
   Flood Outlook
   Winter Weather
   Storm Summaries
   Heat Index
   Tropical Products
   Daily Weather Map
   GIS Products
Current Watches/
Warnings

Satellite and Radar Imagery
  GOES-East Satellite
  GOES-West Satellite
  National Radar
Product Archive
WPC Verification
   QPF
   Medium Range
   Model Diagnostics
   Event Reviews
   Winter Weather
International Desks
Development and Training
   Development
WPC Overview
   About the WPC
   Staff
   WPC History
   Other Sites
   FAQs
Meteorological Calculators
Contact Us
   About Our Site
 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official web portal to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services.
 
WPC Met Watch

 
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion: #0249
(Issued at 940 PM EDT Fri May 17 2019 )

MPD Selection
 


Graphic for MPD #0249

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0249
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
940 PM EDT Fri May 17 2019

Areas affected...West central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 180145Z - 180730Z

Summary...Short training or cell mergers across portions of west
central TX could result in a flash flood threat into the early
morning hours.

Discussion...The GOES-16 clean IR loop showed an expanding area of
cold cloud tops across portions west central TX, though the tops
have warmed in recent images. The convection developed on the
dryline, which provided sufficient low level convergence to allow
the storms to punch through the mid level cap late this afternoon.
The airmass is still relatively dry across this part of TX, as the
00z MAF sounding showed precipitable water values near an inch.

The soundings also showed mid level lapse rates greater than 7.5
C/km, and not surprisingly, the storms have been hail/wind driven
thus far. The sounding also showed that the cap has been broken
here (though it remains in place across north TX, per the 00z FWD
sounding). More storms are developing near the dryline, and along
old outflow boundaries laid down by the first cluster of storms. 

As a developing 90 knot jet streak crosses NM into the TX
Panhandle before 18/06z, increasing difluence should allow
synoptic scale lift to help remove some of the remaining cap, and
organize convection forming in the axis of 1500/3000 J/KG of
MLCAPE across west TX. Ahead of the jet streak and attendant short
wave, a 30/40 knot low level southeast flow transports 1.50 inch
precipitable water air into west and central TX, and the
increasing moisture should be ingested into the developing
convection.

The increased moisture could allow the cells to transition from
mainly hail and wind to more of a flash flood threat, especially
where short term training and cell mergers occur (as the
propagation vectors suggest supercells mergers as the entire area
of convection moves northeast with the mid level flow).

There is a multi high resolution model signature for local
2.00/4.00 inch rainfall amounts across portions of central TX,
with the most recent HRRR indicating a bullseye between Midland
and San Angelo. Three hour flash flood guidance values are as low
as 2.50 inches, as some areas have seen over 250 percent of normal
rainfall over the past 14 days. Based on the above, there is a
flash flood threat, especially where short term training or cell
mergers occur. The threat could persist beyond 18/07z.

Hayes

ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   32270032 31869977 31090007 30610110 30650174
            31040228 31600192


Last Updated: 940 PM EDT Fri May 17 2019
 

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Weather Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740
Weather Prediction Center Web Team
Disclaimer
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 13-May-2015 19:29:02 GMT