Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
401 AM EDT Mon Sep 27 2021
Valid 12Z Mon Sep 27 2021 - 12Z Tue Sep 28 2021
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWEST U.S....
...Southwest U.S/Southern Great Basin....
The inherited Marginal risk was generally left unchanged across
portions of the Southwest. Scattered convection is again likely
near the closed mid level low, and like the past couple days, a
few localized instances of flash flooding are possible. The 00z
HREF does indicate a possible focus for higher totals over
portions of Yavapai and Coconino counties of northern AZ...where
neighborhood probabilities of 1"+ an hour get into the 40-60%
range. Thus the flood risk may be a bit higher here than elsewhere
within the Marginal risk...although given the small areal extent
of these higher probs and some inherent uncertainty on exactly
where an axis of higher rains may actually develop...not seeing
enough to go any higher than the Marginal risk.
The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.
The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.
Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt