Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
322 AM EDT Sat Apr 01 2023

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sat Apr 01 2023 - 12Z Sun Apr 02 2023

Deep convective activity is expected to be most robust but
generally progressive Saturday morning along the southern edge of
a departing deep layer cyclone moving from the Great Lakes into
New England.  The best overlap of available moisture and
instability that shows persistence is in the vicinity of the
AL/GA/FL border junction.  There's a bit of dispersion in the 00z
QPF guidance in this region, but an inspection of one of the
instability fields from the 00z GFS suggests that the mesoscale
guidance/HREF are on to something regarding the highest chances
(which are low) of 2"+ being across portions of the FL Panhandle,
FL Big Bend, and portions of southern AL and southern GA.  The
0-100 cm moisture is telling, showing a dry patch across
south-central GA which allowed their removal from the Marginal
Risk area.  To the north across the Carolinas, the front is more
progressive and moves through right as the instability is
increasing.  The moisture isn't overly stellar in the Carolinas
either, generally below 1.5".  Coordination with CHS, CAE, and ILM
led to the removal of the Marginal Risk area in those regions. 
Some 1-2" totals may occur over a relatively short period, with
the FL Panhandle and surroundings most likely to experience
isolated/ localized training along the tail end of a cold front. 
Cell mergers and mesocyclones cannot be ruled out.  The rapid
movement of the convection will likely limit the potential for
flash flooding to isolated areas.  

Roth


Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt