Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
859 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024

Day 1
Valid 01Z Wed Oct 02 2024 - 12Z Wed Oct 02 2024

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA Peninsula...

01Z Update...

As low pressure off of the Mid-Atlantic Coast continues to drift
further offshore, the threat for additional widespread heavy
rainfall amounts has ended. Therefore, the Marginal Risk was
removed from the Mid-Atlantic.

Across Florida, the Marginal Risk was maintained. Deep moisture
(PWs at or above 2 inches) ahead of a frontal boundary that is
settling across North Florida, along with weak forcing aloft, will
help continue to support shower and thunderstorm activity across
the region for at least a few more hours before waning overnight.
HREF neighborhood probabilities indicate that some areas,
especially near Lake Okeechobee, could see additional amounts of 2+
inches before these storms dissipate.

Pereira

Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Oct 02 2024 - 12Z Thu Oct 03 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

There will be a lingering potential for convection near the
eastern coastline that could result in bursts of modest or very
local heavy rainfall intensities. The threat for excessive rainfall
and flooding concerns will remain below the 5 percent threshold for
this period.

Hamrick/Campbell

Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Oct 03 2024 - 12Z Fri Oct 04 2024

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA...

There is the potential for moderate to locally heavy rainfall to
move northward from the Gulf of Mexico and affect areas near the
Mississippi River delta, and generally along and south of the
Interstate 10 corridor in Louisiana. This is associated with
moisture convergence along a quasi-stationary frontal boundary over
the northern Gulf of Mexico. The latest 12Z model guidance
suggests the heaviest rainfall should remain just offshore, but any
northward trend could lead to some nuisance level instances of
flooding, thus prompting a Marginal Risk area. Max model QPF for
the 24-hour period is on the order of 3-4 inches over the coastal
waters.

Hamrick

Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt