Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 AM EDT Mon May 20 2019
Valid 12Z Mon May 20 2019 - 12Z Wed May 22 2019
...A significant severe weather and flash flood event is likely today
across parts of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas...
...Heavy snow expected for the central Rockies with well below average
temperatures extending from the central and northern High Plains into much
of the West through Wednesday...
...Above average warmth for the East Coast today with much cooler
temperatures for the Northeast on Tuesday...
A major spring storm system is set to affect the Great Plains today with
the potential for widespread severe weather and flash flooding from
northwestern Texas into Oklahoma where the Storm Prediction Center is
forecasting a High Risk of severe thunderstorms. Severe threats include
very large hail, damaging straight line wind gusts and tornadoes, some of
which may be long-track and rather significant. Thunderstorms are expected
to be ongoing early this morning across eastern New Mexico into the Texas
and Oklahoma panhandles with convection expanding north and east during
the day today. Additional thunderstorm development is expected across
western Texas this afternoon resulting in multiple rounds of strong to
severe thunderstorms with heavy rain resulting in a High Risk of flash
flooding, centered over Oklahoma but with a Moderate Risk extending
northward into Kansas and southwestward into northwest Texas. Forecasts of
rainfall ending Tuesday morning are for 3 to 6 inches across a
considerable area extending from southwestern Oklahoma into southeastern
Kansas and the Ozarks, with locally higher totals likely.
The threats for severe weather shift east for Tuesday into the Arklatex
through Missouri and while still noteworthy, do not look as extreme as the
forecasts for today/Monday. A large Slight Risk of flash flooding is
forecast on Tuesday from South Dakota into eastern Kansas and Missouri. As
a strong area of low pressure and its attendant fronts advance east, the
cold front over Texas will weaken but continue to provide a focus for
strong to severe thunderstorms.
To the north and west of the low center, high temperatures will be 20 to
30 degrees below average for portions of the central and northern High
Plains today and Tuesday, with clouds and rain keeping many locations
across the Intermountain West and north of the warm front unsettled. A
second storm system will enter the western U.S. tonight bringing rain and
higher elevation snow to Oregon, Nevada and northern California. By
Tuesday, temperatures should fall low enough to support heavy mountain
snow for Wyoming and Colorado where 1-2 feet could fall in the higher
elevations through Wednesday with minor accumulations even possible for
the lower elevations in eastern Wyoming.
Out East, high temperatures will be well into the 80s and low 90s from
Florida and Georgia to New England today. These temperatures are 10-20
degrees above mid-May averages. A cold front will change that for Tuesday
however, with high falling back into the 50s and 60s for the Northeast
with 70s into the northern Mid-Atlantic region. Cooler weather is also
expected across the Ohio Valley for Tuesday, although rain should hold off
until late Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php