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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0817Z Jul 15, 2019)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 417 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019 Valid 12Z Mon Jul 15 2019 - 12Z Wed Jul 17 2019 ...Tropical Depression Barry remains a flooding threat for the Lower Mississippi Valley and northward... ...Severe weather and flash flooding are possible in the north-central U.S. for the beginning of the workweek... Barry, currently a tropical depression, is expected to transition to a post-tropical cyclone today as it moves slowly northeastward. Heavy rainfall of an additional 3 to 6 inches is possible in its vicinity, with locally higher amounts. These accumulations will lead to continued flooding and flash flooding concerns across the Lower Mississippi Valley and northward. A Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall is in place for early Monday across parts of Louisiana, far southeastern Texas, and far southwestern Mississippi, with a Slight Risk extending northward to the bootheel of Missouri. As Barry moves northeastward on Tuesday, the flash flooding threat will shift a bit and stretch from Arkansas into parts of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, where there is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall in effect. A brief tornado or two is also possible. As a frontal system moves across the north-central U.S. and then stalls, scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast there. Flash flooding and severe weather are both possible. For Monday, Slight Risks of both severe weather and flash flooding are in place for the Midwest, with chances for severe weather and locally heavy rain stretching westward into the Northern/Central High Plains. Severe weather is again forecast for the Northern High Plains on Tuesday. Farther south, scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms will continue for the Rockies and High Plains on Monday and Tuesday. Cool high temperatures are likely in the Lower Mississippi Valley with Barry, and record low maximum temperatures could be set there today. Behind a cold front moving across the Northwest, high temperatures will be 5 to 15 degrees below average. Elsewhere, temperatures will generally be at or above average. Excessive Heat Warnings are in effect for portions of Arizona and California, with Heat Advisories in place in parts of the Northern Plains and Midwest as well as the Carolinas. Tate Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php