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Short Range Public Discussion
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0800Z May 31, 2023)
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 AM EDT Wed May 31 2023 Valid 12Z Wed May 31 2023 - 12Z Fri Jun 02 2023 ...Widespread scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across large portions of the central U.S., the northern Rockies and northern Great Basin... ...Watching the potential for low pressure to develop in the eastern Gulf and bring increasing chance of thunderstorms across southern Florida next few days... ...Much above average temperatures along the northern tier of the nation but cooler than normal across the southern tier and along the West and East Coasts... A blocky weather pattern continues across the mainland U.S. as we end the month of May and head into June. This pattern continues to present itself with upper troughing across the western U.S. leading to widespread scattered showers and thunderstorms over much of the central U.S., the northern Rockies and northern Great Basin/Intermountain region. Meanwhile, a trough moving into the Gulf of Mexico and another trough/closed low off the Mid-Atlantic coast will remain blocked by an upper-level closed high over northeastern U.S. which is forecast to expand to the west into the Great Lakes over the next couple of days. This pattern is manifested with a north-south temperature reversal at the surface, with much above normal temperatures across the northern tier states in contrast with cooler than normal conditions across the southern tier and along the West and East Coasts. By Friday, the Northeast is forecast to be very warm with high temperatures challenging daily records under the expanding upper High. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will once again be most active during the afternoon into the evening hours today and into Thursday from northern California through the northern Rockies where a marginal risk of flash flooding is anticipated. Later on Thursday into early Friday, expect an increasing chance for heavy rain/showers to be more focused across the northern High Plains with a slight risk of flash flooding. Meanwhile, strong to severe thunderstorms will be most likely across the central to southern High Plains through the next couple of days as upper-level impulses from the western U.S. mean trough eject into the Great Plains. Across the Mid-Atlantic, a lingering upper low with a stationary front at the surface will continue to push cooler air down from New England to the East Coast and Appalachians. There remains the chance for some light scattered showers and thunderstorms to spin back onshore into the Mid-Atlantic during the next couple of days. To the south, an upper-level trough settling over the Gulf of Mexico is forecast to spawn a new low-pressure system at the surface. This system is currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center. The exact track of this system remains uncertain, but showers and thunderstorms ahead of the system are expected to become increasingly active over the Florida Peninsula through the next few days. Kong Graphics available at