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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1959Z Nov 19, 2019)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 259 PM EST Tue Nov 19 2019 Valid 00Z Wed Nov 20 2019 - 00Z Fri Nov 22 2019 ...Heavy mountain snow over the Central/Southern Rockies and moderate snow over the Northern Tier States along the border with Canada... ...There is a Moderate risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southwest... ...There is a critical risk of wild fire spreading over parts of Northern/Central California... A deep upper-level low over the west will aid in producing heavy mountain snow and heavy lower elevation rain over parts of the Southwest and into parts of the Central/Southern Rockies through Thursday evening. The heavy rain over the Southwest will produce numerous flash flooding of many streams and potentially affecting larger rives through Thursday morning. Tropical moisture from the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Raymond will be transporting northward into the Desert Southwest into the path of a strong closed upper low west of the Baja Peninsula. As this frontal system progresses through the Great Basin/Four Corners region, temperatures will drop significantly while showers and thunderstorm activity increases across southern California, Arizona and New Mexico into southern Utah by midday Tuesday. Moderate to heavy rain is expected for much of Arizona and will quickly elevate the risk for flash flooding. WPC has a Moderate Risk for excessive rainfall in effect for portions of Arizona through Thursday morning where 1-3 inches of rain are forecast through Wednesday afternoon. During this time the daily maximum temperatures will range from 10 to 20 degrees cooler than average across this section of the country. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php