Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
306 AM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

Valid 12Z Sun Feb 28 2021 - 12Z Tue Mar 02 2021

...Flash flooding and flooding are likely across portions of the Tennessee
and Ohio Valleys and Central Appalachians today and tonight as a Moderate
Risk of excessive rainfall is in place...

...Severe weather is possible for the Ark-La-Tex into the Lower
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys...

...Some snow is possible across the Upper Midwest to Northeast through
Monday...

Another day of widespread rain and thunderstorms is expected for portions
of the central and eastern U.S., as ample moisture from the Gulf of Mexico
streams in ahead of a frontal system. Rainfall amounts over an inch are
possible stretching from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the northern
Mid-Atlantic, with rainfall of 3+ inches possible in the Ohio Valley. Many
of these areas have received considerable rainfall over the last few days
as well, exacerbating the risk for flooding and flash flooding. A Moderate
Risk of excessive rainfall is in place for the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys
into the Central Appalachians through tonight, while Flood Watches are in
effect as well. Severe weather is also a threat, mainly just to the south
of the main flash flooding axis, with a Slight Risk of severe weather
located across the Ark-La-Tex and into parts of the Lower Mississippi and
Tennessee Valleys. The Slight Risk of excessive rainfall stretches into
these areas as well. The southeastern quadrant of the country will be
quite warm especially today ahead of the front, and daily record high
maximum and minimum temperatures could be broken.

While rain and thunderstorms should clear out of the Ohio Valley by Monday
morning after the cold front passes, showers and thunderstorms will
continue Monday in the Gulf Coast states as the front lingers there. Areas
from eastern Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley could see some
isolated flash flooding concerns, but not nearly as widespread. Light
precipitation could fall in the form of snow or mixed precipitation in the
Southern Rockies and east into the Southern Plains on Monday, as
temperatures cool to below normal behind the front.

Farther north, snow is expected in the Upper Midwest to Upper Great Lakes
region today. An axis of 6 to 8 inches of snow is forecast in northern
Wisconsin into the U.P. of Michigan, and Winter Weather Advisories are in
effect there. Lighter snow could again move through these regions tonight
into early Monday. Farther east, interior New England could see light
mixed precipitation or snow beginning this evening, with a round of snow
spreading across the Lower Great Lakes into the Northeast Monday as a cold
front passes through. Generally light amounts of snow are forecast, but
isolated areas could accumulate a few inches of snow.

On the southern end of an upper-level trough over the West, gusty winds
are possible today for California into the Desert Southwest and Southern
High Plains. Scattered High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories are in
effect, and the winds could cause elevated fire danger as well, with Red
Flag Warnings and a Critical Risk of fire weather for southeastern Arizona
and southwestern New Mexico. This trough should also lead to cooler than
normal temperatures in the Great Basin and Rockies today, moderating on
Monday.

Tate

Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php