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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0758Z Jul 16, 2019)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 358 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019 Valid 12Z Tue Jul 16 2019 - 12Z Thu Jul 18 2019 ...Post-Tropical Cyclone Barry remains a flooding threat for the Lower/Middle Mississippi, Tennessee, and Ohio Valleys... ...Severe weather and flash flooding are both possible in the north-central U.S.... ...Heat will begin building in the central and eastern U.S. by midweek... Barry, now a post-tropical cyclone, will continue to be a flooding threat as it moves northeastward through the Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys and produces heavy rainfall. On Tuesday, a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall/flash flooding is in place for portions of Arkansas, northern Mississippi, and far southwestern Tennessee as a band of heavy thunderstorms is forecast to repeat over that area. A Slight Risk of excessive rainfall stretches northward into portions of the Ohio Valley. A couple of brief tornadoes are also possible on Tuesday. The risk of flash flooding shifts eastward on Wednesday, with a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall stretching from the Tennessee Valley to eastern portions of the Ohio Valley and the northern Mid-Atlantic. A frontal system is forecast to stall across the north-central U.S. as upper-level impulses pass through, which will lead to scattered thunderstorms. A Slight Risk of severe weather is in place for the Northern Plains today, with locally heavy rain possible as well. On Wednesday, Slight Risks of severe weather and excessive rainfall/flash flooding are outlooked for the Midwest, with flash flooding chances stretching into the Upper Great Lakes region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also possible farther south in the Central/Southern Rockies and High Plains, mainly in the afternoon and evening. Temperatures will generally be at or above average for midweek, with the exception of the Northwest behind a cold front and areas where Barry is affecting. One more hot day is expected for the Southwest on Tuesday, where Excessive Heat Warnings are in effect. Heat will begin building in the Central Plains to Middle Mississippi Valley, where high temperatures of 10 to 15 degrees above average are forecast by Wednesday, and an Excessive Heat Watch is in place. Heat Advisories are in effect for portions of the Southern Plains and Carolinas. Tate Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php