Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
259 PM EST Tue Nov 19 2019

Valid 00Z Wed Nov 20 2019 - 00Z Fri Nov 22 2019

...Heavy mountain snow over the Central/Southern Rockies and moderate snow
over the Northern Tier States along the border with Canada...

...There is a Moderate risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southwest...

...There is a critical risk of wild fire spreading over parts of
Northern/Central California...

A deep upper-level low over the west will aid in producing heavy mountain
snow and heavy lower elevation rain over parts of the Southwest and into
parts of the Central/Southern Rockies through Thursday evening.  The heavy
rain over the Southwest will produce numerous flash flooding of many
streams and potentially affecting larger rives through Thursday morning.  

Tropical moisture from the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Raymond will be
transporting northward into the Desert Southwest into the path of
a strong closed upper low west of the Baja Peninsula. As this frontal
system progresses through the Great Basin/Four Corners region,
temperatures will drop significantly while showers and thunderstorm
activity increases across southern California, Arizona and New Mexico into
southern Utah by midday Tuesday. Moderate to heavy rain is expected for
much of Arizona and will quickly elevate the risk for flash flooding. WPC
has a Moderate Risk for excessive rainfall in effect for portions of
Arizona through Thursday morning where 1-3 inches of rain are forecast
through Wednesday afternoon. During this time the daily maximum
temperatures will range from 10 to 20 degrees cooler than average across
this section of the country.

Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php