Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019

Valid 12Z Tue Jul 16 2019 - 12Z Thu Jul 18 2019

...Post-Tropical Cyclone Barry remains a flooding threat for the
Lower/Middle Mississippi, Tennessee, and Ohio Valleys...

...Severe weather and flash flooding are both possible in the
north-central U.S....

...Heat will begin building in the central and eastern U.S. by midweek...

Barry, now a post-tropical cyclone, will continue to be a flooding threat
as it moves northeastward through the Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys
and produces heavy rainfall. On Tuesday, a Moderate Risk of excessive
rainfall/flash flooding is in place for portions of Arkansas, northern
Mississippi, and far southwestern Tennessee as a band of heavy
thunderstorms is forecast to repeat over that area. A Slight Risk of
excessive rainfall stretches northward into portions of the Ohio Valley. A
couple of brief tornadoes are also possible on Tuesday. The risk of flash
flooding shifts eastward on Wednesday, with a Slight Risk of excessive
rainfall stretching from the Tennessee Valley to eastern portions of the
Ohio Valley and the northern Mid-Atlantic.

A frontal system is forecast to stall across the north-central U.S. as
upper-level impulses pass through, which will lead to scattered
thunderstorms. A Slight Risk of severe weather is in place for the
Northern Plains today, with locally heavy rain possible as well. On
Wednesday, Slight Risks of severe weather and excessive rainfall/flash
flooding are outlooked for the Midwest, with flash flooding chances
stretching into the Upper Great Lakes region. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are also possible farther south in the Central/Southern
Rockies and High Plains, mainly in the afternoon and evening.

Temperatures will generally be at or above average for midweek, with the
exception of the Northwest behind a cold front and areas where Barry is
affecting. One more hot day is expected for the Southwest on Tuesday,
where Excessive Heat Warnings are in effect. Heat will begin building in
the Central Plains to Middle Mississippi Valley, where high temperatures
of 10 to 15 degrees above average are forecast by Wednesday, and an
Excessive Heat Watch is in place. Heat Advisories are in effect for
portions of the Southern Plains and Carolinas.


Tate


Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php