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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1959Z Sep 24, 2021)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 359 PM EDT Fri Sep 24 2021 Valid 00Z Sat Sep 25 2021 - 00Z Mon Sep 27 2021 ...There is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of Southern California and the Southwest through Sunday morning... ...Temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees above average over parts of the Northern/Central High Plains and Northern Rockies... A front extending from the parts of the Northeast to Florida will remain quasi-stationary until Sunday when upper-level energy aid invigorates the boundary while moving eastward off the Northeast Coast. The moisture connection off the Atlantic will weaken overnight Friday. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the front through Sunday morning. There is an isolated threat of excessive rainfall with these storms through Sunday. Meanwhile, another front over the Upper Great Lakes roughly southwestward to the Southern High Plains will move eastward to the Northeast on Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the boundary over parts of the Upper Great Lakes, moving into the Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on Saturday and into parts of the Northeast on Sunday. Furthermore, upper-level energy and moisture over Southern California and the Southwest will aid in producing widely scattered showers and thunderstorms over the area through Sunday. Some of the thunderstorms will produce heavy rain, but this will be isolated. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of Southern California and the Southwest through Sunday morning. The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain. However, the excessive rainfall threat is minimal yet will continue over the region through Sunday. Additionally, upper-level ridging will move into parts of the Northern Rockies. At the same time, weak high pressure at the surface over California will create light wind over the San Joaquin Valley provide stagnant airflow. Therefore, Air Quality alerts are over parts of California due to wildfire smoke. In the meantime, temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees above average over parts of the Northern/Central High Plains and Northern Rockies. The temperatures and the gusty winds with decreasing humidity will aid in producing an area of Elevated Risk for fire weather through Saturday morning. Therefore, Red Flag Warnings are up over parts of the Northern Plains. Ziegenfelder Graphics are available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php