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Short Range Public Discussion
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0806Z Feb 28, 2021)
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 306 AM EST Sun Feb 28 2021 Valid 12Z Sun Feb 28 2021 - 12Z Tue Mar 02 2021 ...Flash flooding and flooding are likely across portions of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and Central Appalachians today and tonight as a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall is in place... ...Severe weather is possible for the Ark-La-Tex into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys... ...Some snow is possible across the Upper Midwest to Northeast through Monday... Another day of widespread rain and thunderstorms is expected for portions of the central and eastern U.S., as ample moisture from the Gulf of Mexico streams in ahead of a frontal system. Rainfall amounts over an inch are possible stretching from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the northern Mid-Atlantic, with rainfall of 3+ inches possible in the Ohio Valley. Many of these areas have received considerable rainfall over the last few days as well, exacerbating the risk for flooding and flash flooding. A Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall is in place for the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys into the Central Appalachians through tonight, while Flood Watches are in effect as well. Severe weather is also a threat, mainly just to the south of the main flash flooding axis, with a Slight Risk of severe weather located across the Ark-La-Tex and into parts of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. The Slight Risk of excessive rainfall stretches into these areas as well. The southeastern quadrant of the country will be quite warm especially today ahead of the front, and daily record high maximum and minimum temperatures could be broken. While rain and thunderstorms should clear out of the Ohio Valley by Monday morning after the cold front passes, showers and thunderstorms will continue Monday in the Gulf Coast states as the front lingers there. Areas from eastern Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley could see some isolated flash flooding concerns, but not nearly as widespread. Light precipitation could fall in the form of snow or mixed precipitation in the Southern Rockies and east into the Southern Plains on Monday, as temperatures cool to below normal behind the front. Farther north, snow is expected in the Upper Midwest to Upper Great Lakes region today. An axis of 6 to 8 inches of snow is forecast in northern Wisconsin into the U.P. of Michigan, and Winter Weather Advisories are in effect there. Lighter snow could again move through these regions tonight into early Monday. Farther east, interior New England could see light mixed precipitation or snow beginning this evening, with a round of snow spreading across the Lower Great Lakes into the Northeast Monday as a cold front passes through. Generally light amounts of snow are forecast, but isolated areas could accumulate a few inches of snow. On the southern end of an upper-level trough over the West, gusty winds are possible today for California into the Desert Southwest and Southern High Plains. Scattered High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories are in effect, and the winds could cause elevated fire danger as well, with Red Flag Warnings and a Critical Risk of fire weather for southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico. This trough should also lead to cooler than normal temperatures in the Great Basin and Rockies today, moderating on Monday. Tate Graphics available at