Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
242 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

Valid 00Z Mon Mar 01 2021 - 00Z Wed Mar 03 2021

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southern Plains and the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys through Monday
morning...

...Some snow is possible across parts of the Northeast and the Southern
Rockies/Southern High Plains...

A front extending roughly from the Mid-Atlantic southwestward to the
Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley will slowly move off most of the
East Coast by Monday evening. In contrast, a quasi-stationary front
lingers over the Southeast/Central Gulf Coast through Tuesday.  Moisture
will pool along the boundary producing showers and thunderstorms from
parts of the Southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley on Sunday evening
into Monday morning.  The SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains and the Lower
Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys through Monday morning.  The greatest threat
from the severe thunderstorms will be hail, with a 10% chance of hail two
inches or greater over parts of the Ark-La-Tex region.  Other threats with
severe thunderstorms are frequent lightning, damaging severe thunderstorm
wind gust, hail, and tornadoes.  Areas of heavy rain are also expected
with some of the thunderstorms. As the front moves eastward, the severe
threat diminishes on Monday, while a few areas of heavy rain are possible.
 Rain will also develop over parts of the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes into the
Mid-Atlantic and moving into the Northeast on Sunday evening.  Overnight
Sunday, the rain will move into parts of New England. 

Meanwhile, a front over the Upper Great Lakes snaking roughly
northwestward to the Northern High Plains will move eastward into the
Northeast by Monday evening.  The system will produce light snow over
parts of the Upper Great Lakes on Sunday evening, ending overnight, as
rain over the Lower Great Lakes changes over to light snow by Monday
morning.  The rain over the Central Appalachians will change over to snow
on Monday afternoon before ending by Monday evening.  Also, by Monday
evening, the rain over New England will change over to snow.  Light lake
effect snow will linger downwind from the Great Lakes overnight Monday
ending by Tuesday morning. 

Furthermore, upper-level energy over the Southwest/Southern Rockies will
move eastward into the Southern Plains by Tuesday morning.  The energy
will help produce light snow over parts of the Southern Rockies and move
into the Southern High Plains on Monday morning.  The light snow will end
overnight Monday.  Elsewhere, a weak front will move onshore over the
Pacific Northwest overnight Monday, producing light snow areas over parts
of the Northern Cascades and Northern Rockies early Tuesday into Tuesday
evening.  On the southern end of an upper-level trough over the West,
gusty winds are possible for California into the Desert Southwest and
Southern High Plains. Scattered High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories are
in effect, and the winds could cause elevated fire danger as well, with
Red Flag Warnings and a Critical Risk of fire weather for southeastern
Arizona and southwestern New Mexico.

Ziegenfelder

Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php