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Short Range Public Discussion
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0800Z Jun 01, 2023)
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 AM EDT Thu Jun 01 2023 Valid 12Z Thu Jun 01 2023 - 12Z Sat Jun 03 2023 ...Scattered showers and thunderstorms with the potential for isolated flash flooding and severe weather continue from the Plains to Intermountain West... ...Area of low pressure in the Gulf to bring increasing chance of thunderstorms to Florida the next few days... ...Much above average, record tying/breaking warmth from the Northeast to the Great Lakes to end the week... A blocky weather pattern continues across the CONUS heading into June. Upper troughing remains present across the western U.S. leading to scattered showers and thunderstorms over much of the central/western U.S. Meanwhile, a trough moving into the Gulf of Mexico and another trough/closed low off the Mid-Atlantic coast will remain blocked by an upper-level closed high over the northeastern U.S., which is forecast to expand to the west into the Great Lakes over the next couple of days. This pattern is manifested with a north-south temperature reversal at the surface, with much above normal temperatures across the northern tier states in contrast with cooler than normal conditions across the southern tier and along the West and East Coasts. A couple of upper-level troughs/lows moving into/across the western U.S. will focus two main areas of moderate to heavy rainfall as we head into the first weekend of June. An upper low currently crossing the Southwest will help destabilize the atmosphere over the very moist, southeasterly low-level flow over the southern High Plains for the next couple of days. The highest chance of seeing heavy rain and severe weather will be across the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma. A few more organized, supercell storms could produce large hail and gusty winds together with heavy rain capable of triggering flash flooding today and again on Friday with activities most active during the late afternoon into the evening hours. Meanwhile, an upper-level trough edging into the Pacific Northwest will focus a second area of moderate to heavy rainfall across central Montana where a couple of fronts are forecast to interact with a surface low pressure system. Over the Gulf of Mexico, the National Hurricane Center continues to watch a developing low pressure system for signs of tropical cyclone development. Models generally agree that the core of the system will stay at a distance off to the west of Florida through Saturday morning. Regardless of tropical development, this system will likely bring an increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms over portions of the central and southern Florida Peninsula. High temperatures will continue to trend 15-25 degrees above average from the Northeast to the Great Lakes and Northern Plains as upper-level ridging hovers over the region. Highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s, which may come close to tying/breaking a few daily records both Thursday and Friday. A back-door cold front will then push southward from Canada into New England later on Friday, bringing a surge of cool and damp air into the region along with an expanding area of showers and embedded thunderstorms across New York and central New England into Saturday morning. Above normal conditions will extend south into the Tennessee/Ohio/Mississippi Valleys between the southeastern and western troughs, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Across the West, high temperatures through Friday will be around average for northern portions of the Pacific Northwest, with forecast highs in the 70s and 80s. Highs will be much below average along the California Coast, with mostly 60s expected, as well as into the Southwest with 80s to low 90s forecast. Kong/Putnam Graphics available at