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Short Range Public Discussion
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1942Z Feb 28, 2021)
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 242 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021 Valid 00Z Mon Mar 01 2021 - 00Z Wed Mar 03 2021 ...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains and the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys through Monday morning... ...Some snow is possible across parts of the Northeast and the Southern Rockies/Southern High Plains... A front extending roughly from the Mid-Atlantic southwestward to the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley will slowly move off most of the East Coast by Monday evening. In contrast, a quasi-stationary front lingers over the Southeast/Central Gulf Coast through Tuesday. Moisture will pool along the boundary producing showers and thunderstorms from parts of the Southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley on Sunday evening into Monday morning. The SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains and the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys through Monday morning. The greatest threat from the severe thunderstorms will be hail, with a 10% chance of hail two inches or greater over parts of the Ark-La-Tex region. Other threats with severe thunderstorms are frequent lightning, damaging severe thunderstorm wind gust, hail, and tornadoes. Areas of heavy rain are also expected with some of the thunderstorms. As the front moves eastward, the severe threat diminishes on Monday, while a few areas of heavy rain are possible. Rain will also develop over parts of the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic and moving into the Northeast on Sunday evening. Overnight Sunday, the rain will move into parts of New England. Meanwhile, a front over the Upper Great Lakes snaking roughly northwestward to the Northern High Plains will move eastward into the Northeast by Monday evening. The system will produce light snow over parts of the Upper Great Lakes on Sunday evening, ending overnight, as rain over the Lower Great Lakes changes over to light snow by Monday morning. The rain over the Central Appalachians will change over to snow on Monday afternoon before ending by Monday evening. Also, by Monday evening, the rain over New England will change over to snow. Light lake effect snow will linger downwind from the Great Lakes overnight Monday ending by Tuesday morning. Furthermore, upper-level energy over the Southwest/Southern Rockies will move eastward into the Southern Plains by Tuesday morning. The energy will help produce light snow over parts of the Southern Rockies and move into the Southern High Plains on Monday morning. The light snow will end overnight Monday. Elsewhere, a weak front will move onshore over the Pacific Northwest overnight Monday, producing light snow areas over parts of the Northern Cascades and Northern Rockies early Tuesday into Tuesday evening. On the southern end of an upper-level trough over the West, gusty winds are possible for California into the Desert Southwest and Southern High Plains. Scattered High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories are in effect, and the winds could cause elevated fire danger as well, with Red Flag Warnings and a Critical Risk of fire weather for southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at