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Short Range Public Discussion
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1922Z Mar 30, 2023)
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 322 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2023 Valid 00Z Fri Mar 31 2023 - 00Z Sun Apr 02 2023 ...A major early spring storm to bring multiple hazardous impacts across large sections of the Lower 48... ...Heavy snow and significant ice accumulations likely across portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes... ...Severe weather threat through the Middle to Lower Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley... ...Heavy rains and flash flooding possible across the Ohio Valley, Lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley... ...Critical Fire Weather threat, high winds and blowing sand likely across the Southern High Plains... A storm system across the Central Plains Thursday afternoon will be strengthening as it pushes northeast through the Upper Mississippi Valley and into the Upper Great Lakes Friday into Saturday. This major early spring storm will have multiple hazardous impacts associated with it, stretching from the Great Lakes, through the Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley and into the Southern Plains. Heavy snows and significant icing are likely from portions of the Northern Plains, east northeastward through the Upper Mississippi Valley and into the Upper Great Lakes region. Snowfall accumulations in excess of a foot possible across central to northeastern South Dakota, northeast Wisconsin into large portions of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, while ice accumulations of .10 to .25 inch are possible from far eastern South Dakota, through central Minnesota and across northern Wisconsin. In addition to the heavy snow and ice potential, strong winds with gusts over 50 mph will produce blizzard conditions from portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes with very hazardous travel conditions likely. To the south of the heavy snow and ice threat regions, several rounds of rainfall are likely to push from west to east through the Lower to Middle Mississippi Valley and Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Large portions of these regions have seen much above average rainfall over the past few weeks, resulting in above average stream flows and soil saturation levels. Flash flooding will be a concern across these areas as locally heavy rainfall amounts are likely over the next two days. In addition to the heavy rains and flash flooding threat, an organized area of thunderstorms are likely to develop Friday afternoon across the Middle to Lower Mississippi Valley along and ahead of a strong front pushing across these regions. These thunderstorms are then expected to push quickly through the Mid West, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Friday evening/Friday night. Severe weather will be a significant threat from these thunderstorms with tornadoes, large hail and high winds possible. On the far south side of the developing Northern Plains to Upper Great Lakes storm, strengthening winds and dry conditions will produce critical fire weather condition over the next two days across much of the Southern High Plains. Red Flag warnings and high wind warnings are currently in effect from eastern New Mexico, across West Texas, much of Oklahoma, southern and western Kansas and southeast Colorado. Wind gusts across these regions are likely to be greater than 50 miles per hour. In addition to supporting wild fire conditions, these wind gusts will also produce areas of blowing sand with dust storm warnings also in effect across portions of the Southern High Plains. The combination of high winds and reduced visibility from blowing sand will result in very hazardous travel conditions. Oravec Graphics available at