Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
345 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2019

Valid 00Z Tue Apr 23 2019 - 00Z Thu Apr 25 2019

...Severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall possible across parts of
the Southern Plains...

...Snowmelt combined with rainfall could lead to flooding across parts of
the Upper Midwest and northern Maine...

...The Western U.S. should stay mostly dry and very warm through the short
range...

A slow moving frontal boundary will continue shifting south and eastward
through the middle part of the country today and allow for scattered
showers from the Upper Midwest to the Southern Plains. Strong to severe
thunderstorms could be a threat Monday night into Tuesday across parts of
Texas and southeast New Mexico, where the Storm Prediction Center (SPC)
has highlighted a Slight Risk. Storms could also contain heavy rainfall
with locally excessive rains/flash flooding possible. As the system shifts
further southeast on Tuesday and Wednesday, SPC has a Slight Risk for
severe storms on both days across portions of Texas. Heavy rain will also
continue to be a threat, particularly on Wednesday across northern and
central Texas. Here, rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are possible, with
locally higher amounts in thunderstorms.

Along the same boundary to the northeast, enhanced rainfall will continue
into early Tuesday morning across parts of Wisconsin and the Upper
Peninsula of Michigan, where present snow cover coupled with modest
rainfall could lead to flooding. Flood watches remain in effect across
this region. This front will usher in a much cooler airmass Tuesday and
Wednesday from the Upper Mississippi Valley to the Southern Plains, with
locally heavy mountain snows continuing across parts of the Colorado
Rockies. The cold air sinks south and eastward by Tuesday, with the
greatest departures (as much as 20 degrees below normal) expected across
parts of western Texas and eastern New Mexico. Ahead of the front,
temperatures will be warm and above normal from the Midwest to the East,
with daytime highs running about 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

Elsewhere, a surface low off the Atlantic coast will continue lifting
northward tonight and into Tuesday. This will cause scattered rain showers
across parts of the Northeast. Though amounts should generally be light,
any additional rainfall could exacerbate ongoing flooding across parts of
northern Maine due to snowmelt. Out west, a weak front entering the
Pacific Northwest on Tuesday may spark light and scattered rain for parts
of the Northwest and Northern Rockies, but otherwise weather across the
remainder of the West will be dry and very warm (10 to 20 degrees above
normal) as a strong ridge of high pressure builds and expands across the
region.

Snell


Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php