Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
322 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2023

Valid 00Z Fri Mar 31 2023 - 00Z Sun Apr 02 2023

...A major early spring storm to bring multiple hazardous impacts across
large sections of the Lower 48...

...Heavy snow and significant ice accumulations likely across portions of
the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley and Upper Great
Lakes...

...Severe weather threat through the Middle to Lower Mississippi Valley,
Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley...

...Heavy rains and flash flooding possible across the Ohio Valley, Lower
Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley...

...Critical Fire Weather threat, high winds and blowing sand likely across
the Southern High Plains...


A storm system across the Central Plains Thursday afternoon will be
strengthening as it pushes northeast through the Upper Mississippi Valley
and into the Upper Great Lakes Friday into Saturday.  This major early
spring storm will have multiple hazardous impacts associated with it,
stretching from the Great Lakes, through the Mississippi Valley, Ohio
Valley, Tennessee Valley and into the Southern Plains.  Heavy snows and
significant icing are likely from portions of the Northern Plains, east
northeastward through the Upper Mississippi Valley and into the Upper
Great Lakes region.  Snowfall accumulations in excess of a foot possible
across central to northeastern South Dakota, northeast Wisconsin into
large portions of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, while ice accumulations
of .10 to .25 inch are possible from far eastern South Dakota, through
central Minnesota and across northern Wisconsin.  In addition to the heavy
snow and ice potential, strong winds with gusts over  50 mph will produce
blizzard conditions from portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper
Great Lakes with very hazardous travel conditions likely.

To the south of the heavy snow and ice threat regions, several rounds of
rainfall are likely to push from west to east through the Lower to Middle
Mississippi Valley and Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.  Large portions of
these regions have seen much above average rainfall over the past few
weeks, resulting in above average stream flows and soil saturation levels.
 Flash flooding will be a concern across these areas as locally heavy
rainfall amounts are likely over the next two days. 

In addition to the heavy rains and flash flooding threat, an organized
area of thunderstorms are likely to develop Friday afternoon across the
Middle to Lower Mississippi Valley along and ahead of a strong front
pushing across these regions.  These thunderstorms are then expected to
push quickly through the Mid West, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Friday
evening/Friday night.  Severe weather will be a significant threat from
these thunderstorms with tornadoes, large hail and high winds possible. 

On the far south side of the developing Northern Plains to Upper Great
Lakes storm, strengthening winds and dry conditions will produce critical
fire weather condition over the next two days across much of the Southern
High Plains.  Red Flag warnings and high wind warnings are currently in
effect from eastern New Mexico, across West Texas, much of Oklahoma,
southern and western Kansas and southeast Colorado.  Wind gusts across
these regions are likely to be greater than 50 miles per hour.  In
addition to supporting wild fire conditions, these wind gusts will also
produce areas of blowing sand with dust storm warnings also in effect
across portions of the Southern High Plains.  The combination of high
winds and reduced visibility from blowing sand will result in very
hazardous travel conditions.

Oravec


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php