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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0800Z Nov 01, 2024)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 AM EDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 12Z Fri Nov 01 2024 - 12Z Sun Nov 03 2024 ...Threat of a heavy rain and severe weather event increasing across the central to southern Plains throughout the weekend... ...Mountain snow will overspread from the Pacific Northwest into much of the Intermountain West over the next couple of days with heavy rain today near the Pacific Northwest coast... ...Much above average temperatures expected across large portions of the central to eastern U.S. with little rain in sight along the East Coast... A trailing cold front in connection with a low pressure system currently moving east across the Great Lakes toward New England will bring a chance of rain into the eastern U.S. on this first day of November following an exceptionally dry October for this part of the country. However, it appears that the rain will not progress much beyond the Appalachians today as another day of warm and dry conditions is forecast for the East Coast. In fact, the warm temperatures into the 70s early this morning have already challenged high temperature records for November in upstate New York. In addition, record high morning lows are possible this morning from the Mid-Atlantic into New England and record high temperatures are possible Friday afternoon from near New York City to northern Maine. The cold front will bring gusty winds and cool temperatures into the Northeast by tonight and into the weekend. While less record temperatures are forecast over the next few days across the eastern two-thirds of the country, widespread above average temperatures are expected across large portions of the central to eastern U.S. A high pressure system will build across the Northeast during the weekend and will sustain the dry conditions down the Eastern Seaboard for the first few days of November. Attention will then focus across the central and southern Plains as a rather significant heavy rain and severe weather event will be emerging throughout the weekend. As moist air from the Gulf of Mexico returns and streams northward into the southern Plains behind the high pressure system, a deepening upper-level trough will be moving through the western U.S. This trough will bring another round of heavy rain near the coast for Pacific Northwest today before spreading more mountain snow across the Intermountain West through the weekend. Southwesterly flow ahead of the trough will then interact with the returning Gulf moisture over the southern Plains and lift the moisture over a warm front. It appears that moderate to heavy rain associated with organized thunderstorms will first develop over the southern High Plains tonight. The thunderstorms and heavy rain will then expand northeastward into the central Plains through the weekend. A few inches of heavy rain with locally higher amounts is forecast across the southern Plains, with the heaviest rains expected across central Oklahoma. Similar to many areas of the Lower 48, this region is experiencing moderate to extreme drought conditions. While this round of heavy rain will help aleviate the drought, the high rainfall rates will also bring an increasing threat of flash flooding. Please keep abreast of the latest forecast updates on this upcoming heavy rain/severe weather event across the central to southern Plains. Kong Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php