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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1945Z Apr 22, 2019)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 345 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2019 Valid 00Z Tue Apr 23 2019 - 00Z Thu Apr 25 2019 ...Severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall possible across parts of the Southern Plains... ...Snowmelt combined with rainfall could lead to flooding across parts of the Upper Midwest and northern Maine... ...The Western U.S. should stay mostly dry and very warm through the short range... A slow moving frontal boundary will continue shifting south and eastward through the middle part of the country today and allow for scattered showers from the Upper Midwest to the Southern Plains. Strong to severe thunderstorms could be a threat Monday night into Tuesday across parts of Texas and southeast New Mexico, where the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has highlighted a Slight Risk. Storms could also contain heavy rainfall with locally excessive rains/flash flooding possible. As the system shifts further southeast on Tuesday and Wednesday, SPC has a Slight Risk for severe storms on both days across portions of Texas. Heavy rain will also continue to be a threat, particularly on Wednesday across northern and central Texas. Here, rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are possible, with locally higher amounts in thunderstorms. Along the same boundary to the northeast, enhanced rainfall will continue into early Tuesday morning across parts of Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, where present snow cover coupled with modest rainfall could lead to flooding. Flood watches remain in effect across this region. This front will usher in a much cooler airmass Tuesday and Wednesday from the Upper Mississippi Valley to the Southern Plains, with locally heavy mountain snows continuing across parts of the Colorado Rockies. The cold air sinks south and eastward by Tuesday, with the greatest departures (as much as 20 degrees below normal) expected across parts of western Texas and eastern New Mexico. Ahead of the front, temperatures will be warm and above normal from the Midwest to the East, with daytime highs running about 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Elsewhere, a surface low off the Atlantic coast will continue lifting northward tonight and into Tuesday. This will cause scattered rain showers across parts of the Northeast. Though amounts should generally be light, any additional rainfall could exacerbate ongoing flooding across parts of northern Maine due to snowmelt. Out west, a weak front entering the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday may spark light and scattered rain for parts of the Northwest and Northern Rockies, but otherwise weather across the remainder of the West will be dry and very warm (10 to 20 degrees above normal) as a strong ridge of high pressure builds and expands across the region. Snell Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php