Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
318 PM EDT Fri Oct 04 2024

Valid 00Z Sat Oct 05 2024 - 00Z Mon Oct 07 2024

...Record-breaking heat remains across California and the Southwest
through this weekend, while briefly overspreading portions of the Plains
and Midwest on Saturday...

...Strong winds and dangerous fire weather conditions are forecast
throughout the northern Great Basin, northern Rockies, and into the High
Plains...

...Locally heavy rainfall will be possible across the immediate Gulf Coast
through Saturday, with more of a focus toward the Florida Peninsula by
late Sunday...

A late-season heatwave will continue this weekend across the Southwest
U.S. as high pressure aloft persists over the region. Record or
near-record high temperatures are forecast over a rather widespread region
including central and southern California through the Desert Southwest
where there will be temperatures reaching over 100 degrees. Some of the
interior deserts of the Southwest my locally reach over 110 degrees.
Heat-related advisories and warnings are in place as the heat remains at
levels dangerous to anyone without adequate cooling or hydration. As a
cold front crosses through the Northwest and ejects east across the
northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley through Saturday, some of the
heat across the interior of the West will also eject east across portions
of the Plains and Midwest where high temperatures will be locally 20 to 25
degrees above average, which may result in a few record-high temperatures
here as well.

Aside from the heat-related hazards, another major concern through the
weekend will be strong winds and dangerous fire weather conditions setting
up in close proximity to the aforementioned cold front crossing through
the Northwest. This front will settle down through the northern Great
Basin, northern Rockies and High Plains and will be accompanied by
sufficiently high enough winds for downed trees and power lines to occur.
High-wind watches and warnings are in effect. These winds coupled with the
very warm and dry airmass near the front will favor critical fire weather
conditions that will initially be over the northern Great Basin and
northern Rockies tonight through early Saturday, but will then eject east
out across the central High Plains Saturday afternoon and evening, and
will include areas of the Front Range from Wyoming down into Colorado. The
Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a Critical Risk (level 2/3) of
fire weather across many of these locations, and there are Red Flag
Warnings and Fire Weather Watches in effect.

Elsewhere, much of the rest of the country will be tranquil and dry going
through the weekend. However, exceptions will include the Great Lakes and
Northeast as a frontal system crosses the region and brings a threat of
showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. Rainfall amounts though with this
should be relatively light. Also, there will be some concerns along areas
of the immediate Gulf Coast for locally heavy rainfall from areas of
slow-moving showers and thunderstorms. A substantial amount of moisture
pooled around the Gulf of Mexico coupled with proximity of a couple of
low-level boundaries will be the main facilitators of this. However, by
later Sunday, there will tend to be a growing threat of heavier rainfall
and potentially some flooding concerns toward parts of the Florida
Peninsula as multiple areas of low pressure begin to congregate offshore
over the Gulf of Mexico which will begin enhance the transport of moisture
along a front draped across the state.

Orrison


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php