Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
239 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2019
Valid 00Z Thu Nov 21 2019 - 00Z Sat Nov 23 2019
...Heavy mountain snow over the Central/Southern Rockies as well as the
...Heavy snow over the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes...
...There is a moderate risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
...There is a critical risk of fire weather over parts of Northern/Central
A long stretch of warmer and drier conditions over parts of
Northern/Central California has primed that area for potential spread of
wildfires and this airmass is expected to persist through Thursday. As
such, there is a critical risk for fire weather across Northern California
through Thursday morning.
For the Southwest U.S., heavy mountain snow and moderate to heavy rain in
the lower elevations is expects as a deep upper-level low tracks east
across the region. The precipitation shield will shift into the
Southern/Central Rockies/High Plains as the front approaches. The
intensity and during of some of these downpours will likely lead to
numerous flash flooding of many streams and potentially affecting larger
rives through Thursday morning. Much of West-Central and Southern Arizona
has a Slight to Moderate Risk for Excessive Rainfall.
Low pressure over the Central High Plains will move northeastward to the
Great Lakes by Thursday evening and the associate front will move off the
Northeast Coast by Friday evening. The system will produce rain and snow
over parts of the Central/Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi
Valley/Upper Great Lakes overnight Wednesday into Thursday evening. The
snow will end over the Upper Great Lakes/Upper Mississippi Valley by
Friday morning. Light snow will fall across the higher terrain of the
Northeast Wednesday night into Thursday. As the front moves across the
Northeast areas of rain/freezing rain will develop overnight Thursday into
Friday afternoon. Rain will move into parts of the Northeast overnight
Thursday into Friday morning that will change over to snow on Friday.
Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php