Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
242 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2020
Valid 00Z Sun Feb 23 2020 - 00Z Tue Feb 25 2020
...An energetic storm system expected to impact the Southwest on Saturday,
Central Rockies/Plains on Sunday, and into the Mississippi and Ohio
Valleys by Monday...
...Rain and mountain snow return to the Northwest on Sunday reaching the
northern High Plains by Monday...
A storm system currently tracking through the Southwest is producing
periods of rain, falling heavily at times, across southern Nevada, much of
Arizona, and western New Mexico. Rainfall totals between 1 to 2 inches
with localized amounts exceeding 2 inches are likely as rich subtropical
moisture streams overhead this afternoon and into the evening hours. A
Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall remains in place for south-central
Arizona and far western New Mexico where there is the potential for flash
flooding into Saturday evening. The higher elevations of the Four Corners
region can expect precipitation to fall in the form of snow tonight and
into Sunday. Winter Weather Advisories are in effect from south-central
Nevada to southern Utah and the Colorado Rockies. Even a few locations in
northern Arizona and New Mexico can expect accumulating snowfall
By Sunday, the storm system is forecast to intensify as it moves into the
central High Plains. Showers and some thunderstorms will quickly develop
and expand across the central Plains toward the Mid-Mississippi Valley
through Sunday night. Some wintry precipitation is also possible farther
north stretching from the central Plains and the Midwest into the lower
Great Lakes Sunday night into Monday morning. The southern and central
Appalachians could also witness wintry precipitation Monday morning. To
the south, thunderstorms will likely be moving across the lower to
mid-Mississippi Valley Sunday night then into the Southeast late in the
day on Monday ahead of the intensifying storm. Marginal Risks for flash
flooding have been issued for eastern Kansas and southern Missouri on
Sunday, as well as southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle on Monday.
Further north, another low pressure system will cause an increase in
showers and mountain snow over the Pacific Northwest on Sunday. The
Olympics and Cascades will receive more mountain snow while the valleys
and coastal areas see rain. The storm system will then track into the
northern Rockies Sunday night leading to more areas of mountain snow.
Periods of snow will then expand farther east into the northern Plains as
the storm center moves into the northern High Plains by Monday morning.
Light snow and a surge of below normal temperatures in wake of the storm
will spill south through the northern Rockies and into the High Plains
Monday night and into Tuesday morning.
Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php