Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Valid 00Z Tue Apr 16 2024 - 00Z Thu Apr 18 2024

...Intensifying storm system to bring the threat of severe weather and
isolated flash flooding to the Plains tonight, followed by the Mississippi
Valley on Tuesday...

...Scattered to severe thunderstorms, over parts of the Mid-Atlantic early
this evening...

...Moderate to locally heavy snowfall expected over the next couple of
days for higher elevations of the northern Cascades, Northern/Central
Rockies, and eastern Great Basin...

...Well above average temperatures across the Central/Eastern U.S;
Critical Risk of Fire Weather for the Central/Southern High Plains
Monday....


Tonight, scattered showers and thunderstorms will proliferate across the
Great Plains with a focus around a dryline extending south across the
Central/Southern Plains. Some more storms are likely to pop up from the
Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic late this afternoon and early this
evening. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued an Enhanced Risk (level
3/5) of Severe Thunderstorms across parts of the Central Great Plains and
Central and eastern Virginia tonight. Scattered severe storms capable of
producing several tornadoes, large to very large hail, and damaging wind
gusts are all possible over the Plains with strong/violent tornadoes
possible over parts of Kansas and Nebraska. Severe wind gusts are probable
early this evening across portions of Virginia. Higher rainfall rates near
the surface low pressure center could produce Flash Flooding tonight,
which is partly why a Slight Risk (at least 15%) of Excessive Rainfall is
in effect for parts of southeastern South Dakota, northeastern Nebraska
and northwestern Iowa. Cold air flowing into the backside of the Plains
system, where moisture will also be present, will support moderate to
heavy snow to develop over parts of the Central Rockies tonight. Anywhere
between 6 to 12 inches of snow with isolated higher amounts are possible.
Dry and windy conditions will support a Critical Risk of Fire Weather
across portions of the Central/Southern High Plains into this evening.

The severe weather threat shifts into the Mississippi Valley, while snow
develops over the Northwest on Tuesday. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to propagate into the Upper/Middle Mississippi
Valley Tuesday morning and then over the Lower Mississippi Valley Tuesday
afternoon. SPC has another Enhanced Risk of Severe Thunderstorms out over
parts of southeast Iowa, northern Missouri and west-central Illinois with
a broader Slight Risk (level 2/5) area extending from northern Iowa down
to the ArkLaTex on Tuesday. Scattered severe storms capable of producing
significant/severe hail and tornadoes is forecast where the Enhanced Risk
is currently in effect. Excessive Rainfall threats remain marginal over
the same areas with the possibility of a targeted Slight Risk area being
issued as we get closer to the event.

Snow will likely develop on the backside of a pair of cold fronts pushing
through the Northwest on Tuesday/Tuesday night, while thunderstorms move
farther into the Upper Mississippi Valley and Midwest. Snow accumulations
of around 6-12 inches are likely over the ranges of northwestern Wyoming
into southern Montana, while 8-18 inches with isolated higher amounts
possible over the Bighorn Mountains. Showers and thunderstorms move into
the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Wednesday with a Slight Risk of Severe
Storms over parts of the Lower Ohio Valley into the Mid-South according to
the SPC. Mid to upper-level troughing over the northern tier will support
generally average to below average temperatures across that area over the
next couple of days while ridging over the southern tier will support
above average temps.


Kebede


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php