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Short Range Public Discussion
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 2005Z Feb 21, 2019)
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 305 PM EST Thu Feb 21 2019 Valid 00Z Fri Feb 22 2019 - 00Z Sun Feb 24 2019 ...A major snow storm will impact the Four Corners region tonight and advance into the Central Plains for Saturday... ...More heavy rain for portions of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley with flash flooding likely... ...Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley into western Kentucky/Tennessee... A strong storm system will move across the Southwest tonight with major snowfall accumulations expected for the higher terrain of the Four Corners region through Friday. Up to three feet of snow is expected along the highest elevations of Arizona's Mogollon Rim and over a foot of new snow can be expected for the higher elevations of southwestern Colorado. Low pressure will emerge in the southern High Plains Friday night into Saturday with rain changing to snow for southern Nebraska into western Kansas as colder temperatures filter in behind the low track. As the surface low strengthens through the day on Saturday, winds will pick up which will lead to blowing snow and hazardous travel conditions across the Central Plains. Through Saturday evening, forecast snowfall accumulations for portions of central Kansas into central Nebraska range from 4-8 inches. Gulf of Mexico moisture intersecting a stalled front extending from the Southeast coast into eastern Texas will play a significant role in expected heavy rain from portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley into northern Mississippi/Alabama and Tennessee into Kentucky over the next two days. Additional rainfall of 3-5 inches is expected through Saturday evening which will fall on top of locations which have received well over 200 percent of normal rainfall over the past two weeks. Some of these locations are already flooded so additional heavy rain may lead to a very dangerous flooding situation for folks in this part of the country. Severe thunderstorms will also be possible as the storm system advances east through the Plains on Saturday with the Storm Prediction Center forecasting an Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms from eastern Arkansas into northern Mississippi, western Tennessee and western Kentucky. Straight line wind damage along with an elevated risk of tornadoes will be the main severe threats. Otto Graphics available at