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Short Range Public Discussion
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1820Z May 23, 2019)
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 220 PM EDT Thu May 23 2019 Valid 00Z Fri May 24 2019 - 00Z Sun May 26 2019 ...More widespread severe weather and flash flooding is expected for portions of the central and southern Plains along with the Midwest... ...Near record heat and dry weather is expected across the Southeast U.S.... ...Very cool and unsettled weather continues for the West... A very active weather pattern is forecast to continue across the central part of the nation through the end of the week and the first part of the weekend. This is in response to a strong upper level trough situated over the Intermountain West and a large upper level ridge anchored over the southeastern U.S. A clash of air masses from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley region will support multiple episodes of severe weather along with the threat for additional flash flooding in the general vicinity of a slow moving frontal boundary where multiple waves of low pressure will be developing along it. The first of these surface lows will cross the Great Lakes region through this afternoon and advance across New England early Friday. This will allow a cold front to drop southeast and cross the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and New England tonight through Friday morning, and bringing cooler temperatures for the end of the week and going into the first part of the weekend. In the warm sector of this approaching low center and cold front, severe thunderstorms will be possible from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through this afternoon and evening, and the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted portions of this region in a Slight to Enhanced Risk of severe weather. Some locally heavy rainfall will be possible as well, but conditions will improve rapidly after the cold front crosses the region. A second low pressure system will develop across the western High Plains tonight and lift northeastward across the northern Plains and upper Midwest by Friday evening. A corridor of enhanced rainfall along with severe weather is likely from the Texas Panhandle to Wisconsin over the next couple of days. The Storm Prediction Center currently has a Moderate Risk of severe weather for this afternoon and evening focused across the Texas panhandle which is embedded within a broader Enhanced Risk area over portions of the southern and central High Plains. Flash flooding will be a significant concern tonight across areas central and southern Kansas where the Weather Prediction Center has highlighted a High Risk of excessive rainfall and this is embedded within a broader Moderate Risk areas across the greater central Plains. On Friday and going into Saturday, the threat for severe weather and flash flooding will shift farther northeast toward the upper Midwest as the aforementioned low center lifts off to the northeast. In terms of temperatures, readings will continue to be well below average for the Rockies and extending westward across the Great Basin and into California given the presence of an upper level trough, cloud cover and plenty of shower activity. In some cases, temperatures will be as much as 10 to 20 degrees below normal, and it will be cold enough across the higher terrain for some additional accumulating snowfall. Meanwhile, across portions of the Tennessee Valley, the Deep South and the Southeast, very dry conditions and near record high temperatures will be possible Friday and well into the Memorial Day weekend as high pressure overhead will yield high temperatures soaring well into the 90s to locally near 100 degrees. Orrison Graphics available at