Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
338 PM EDT Sat Oct 12 2024

Valid 00Z Sun Oct 13 2024 - 00Z Tue Oct 15 2024

...There is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
southeastern Florida Peninsula...

...There is a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central Appalachians on Sunday...

A front extending from the Mid-Atlantic westward to the Central Plains has
a wave of low pressure over the Middle Mississippi Valley that moves
northeastward to Northern New England by Monday evening. The system will
produce rain over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley through Late
Sunday night. In addition, showers and thunderstorms will develop over
parts of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley that move into the Northern
Mid-Atlantic by Sunday evening. Furthermore, rain will develop over parts
of the Lower Great Lakes on Saturday evening, extending into the Northeast
overnight Saturday. The rain will continue through Monday evening. On
Sunday evening, wet snow will develop over parts of the Adirondack
Mountains and continue into Monday evening.

Moreover, as the front moves into the Central Appalachians on Sunday
afternoon, the boundary will produce showers and moderate to severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Central Appalachians. Therefore, the SPC
has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Central Appalachians from Sunday into Monday morning. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes.

Meanwhile, easterly flow off the Atlantic will aid in producing showers
and thunderstorms with moderate to heavy rain over parts of southeastern
Florida. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of
excessive rainfall over parts of southeastern Florida through Monday
morning.  The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash
flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain.

Over the West Coast, weak onshore flow will create light rain over parts
of Northern California through late Saturday afternoon. Furthermore,
upper-level dynamics associated with an upper-level low over the Great
Basin will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms over parts of the
Great Basin and Central Rockies from Sunday evening through Monday evening.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php