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Short Range Public Discussion
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1941Z Nov 29, 2023)
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 241 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 00Z Thu Nov 30 2023 - 00Z Sat Dec 02 2023 ...Milder temperatures over the Plains and Midwest to push east toward the East Coast for the remainder of the week... ...New storm system to bring threat of severe thunderstorms and heavy rain across the Arklatex and the Lower Mississippi Valley on Thursday... ...Atmospheric river activity arriving across the Pacific Northwest by the end of the week will bring heavy rain to the coastal ranges, and heavy snowfall to the Cascades... Cold air and below normal temperatures lingering along the East Coast today will give way to a warming trend for the next couple of days as milder temperatures already advancing across many areas of the Plains and Midwest advances off to the east. However, there will be one more night of sub-freezing temperatures that will impact portions of the Southeast with a focus on southeast Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, the northern Florida Peninsula, and southern Georgia where Freeze Warnings are in effect. Once again there should be precautions taken to protect sensitive vegetation as low temperatures by Thursday morning are expected to drop as cold as the upper 20s and low 30s. On Thursday and heading into Friday, one of the bigger stories will be the increasing threat of severe weather and even some concerns for localized flash flooding as a storm system crossing the Southwest tonight ejects out across the southern Plains and takes aim on the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South. In conjunction with the arrival of multiple cold fronts, there will be the development of low pressure near the Red River Valley by late Thursday which will open the door for a rather significant northward surge of moisture and instability from the Gulf of Mexico heading through Thursday evening and into Thursday night. This will set the stage for rather widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms across the Arklatex and the Lower Mississippi Valley, with adjacent areas of the Middle Mississippi Valley and Mid-South also likely to see areas of moderate to locally heavy rainfall. Severe weather is becoming more of a concern in particular over areas of southeast Texas on Thursday, and the Storm Prediction Center has depicted an Enhanced Risk of severe weather across this region with concerns for a few tornadoes. Some of the severe weather threat may spread east into areas of southwest Louisiana heading into Thursday night. Regarding the rainfall threat, locally a few inches of rain will be possible, and while most of the rain should be beneficial in nature across the broader Arklatex and Lower Mississippi Valley, some localized flash flooding concerns and especially around the more urbanized areas of southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana, will be possible. The Weather Prediction Center currently has a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall depicted across these areas. On Friday, this storm system will cross through the Mid-South and lift into the Lower Ohio Valley. A fairly widespread area of moderate to locally heavy rain will still accompany the low track, but the heaviest rains should stay confined closer to the central Gulf Coast where better moisture and instability will help concentrate more of the thunderstorm activity. A Marginal Risk of both severe weather and flash flooding is depicted across these areas respectfully from the Storm Prediction Center and Weather Prediction Center. Elsewhere, an active and wet weather pattern will begin to ensue across the Pacific Northwest on Thursday and Friday as atmospheric river activity arrives in off the Pacific Ocean in conjunction with a couple of cold fronts. Strengthening onshore flow and moisture transport will set the stage for areas of heavy rainfall across the coastal ranges, with locally a few inches of rain expected. However, over the higher elevations of the Cascades, heavy snowfall is expected, and some areas may see as much as 1 to 2 feet of new snow by late Friday with more on the way heading into the weekend. Orrison Graphics available at