Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
344 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2024

Valid 12Z Fri Sep 13 2024 - 12Z Sun Sep 15 2024

...Francine will continue to weaken while bringing a heavy rain and flash
flood threat to the Southeast over the next couple days...

...Above average temperatures will develop across the Central U.S. and
Northeast while below normal temperatures persist in the Southeast and
West...


Francine will continue to weaken today as its low pressure center meanders
east across northern Arkansas. A stationary boundary extending from the
occluded system will remain parked across the Southeast and provide a
focus for showers and thunderstorms through Saturday. The storm's slow
motion will result in multiple days of heavy rain for the Southeast, which
will create a flash flooding risk. There is a Slight Risk of Excessive
Rainfall (level 2/4) today from western Tennessee through northern and
central Alabama to central/southern Georgia, with an embedded Moderate
Risk (level 3/4) for portions of northern and central Alabama. Flooding
will be most likely in urban and poor drainage areas and areas that
receive training/repeat convection, and locally considerable flash
flooding may be possible, especially where soils are already saturated
from previous rainfall. The flash flood threat will continue for these
areas on Saturday with another Slight Risk (level 2/4). Flood Watches are
in effect for much of the risk area. If you encounter flooding, turn
around, don't drown. It is never safe to walk or drive into flood waters,
and most flood fatalities occur in vehicles. Isolated severe thunderstorms
will also be possible for parts of the Southeast today where the Storm
Prediction Center has issues a Marginal Risk of Severe Thunderstorms
(level 1/5). Severe storm hazards may include a few tornadoes or severe
wind gusts.

The flash flood and severe weather threats associated with Francine will
gradually decease through the weekend, and the remnants will begin moving
south Saturday night and stall along the Gulf Coast on Sunday. Another
area of low pressure is forecast to form along the stalled frontal
boundary off the Southeast Coast, which will create stormy weather from
Florida through the eastern Carolinas through this weekend into early next
week.

In the north, an occluded low pressure system north of Montana will push
further into Canada today and Saturday and will bring a weak cold front
across the northern and central Plains. Precipitation will linger on the
backside of the low in the northern Rockies and northern High Plains this
morning, and cold air will allow for snow and mixed wintry precipitation
at higher elevations. Shower and thunderstorm chances will accompany the
weak cold front through Saturday. Strong high pressure over the Northeast
will prevent the front from making significant eastward progress, and the
front will weaken and dissipate on Sunday.

In the West, a stronger Pacific frontal system will approach the coast
later today and move inland over the weekend. Precipitation chances will
begin in the Northwest late tonight/early Saturday and spread across the
Great Basin and northern California Sunday into Monday. Precipitation
chances will also increase across portions of the Southwest on Sunday as
tropical moisture from Ileana spreads north.

Temperatures will be on the rise this weekend across the Central U.S. and
Northeast, with high temperatures forecast to reach values as high as
10-15 degrees above normal for this time of year. Highs in the 80s and 90s
will be common for the Plains, Upper Midwest/Great Lakes, and Northeast.
Precipitation and cloud cover from Francine will keep temperatures below
average for much of the Southeast. Temperatures across much of the West
will be near to slightly below average through Saturday. On Sunday, the
Pacific frontal system will usher in cooler, unsettled weather, and
temperatures will drop to well below normal along the West Coast.


Dolan


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php