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Short Range Public Discussion
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0800Z Nov 30, 2023)
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 300 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 12Z Thu Nov 30 2023 - 12Z Sat Dec 02 2023 ...Storm system to bring threat of severe thunderstorms and heavy rain from the Southern Plains to the Lower Mississippi Valley on Thursday, spreading further into the Southeast Friday... ...Areas of light to moderate precipitation expected from the Central Plains to the interior Northeast, with a wintry mix possible for some locations... ...Atmospheric river activity arriving across the Pacific Northwest by the end of the week will bring heavy rain to the coastal ranges, and heavy snowfall to the Cascades... ...Locally heavy snowfall possible for higher mountain elevations in the Four Corners region... An upper-level shortwave over the Southwest will move over the Southern Plains Thursday, helping to better organize/strengthen a surface frontal system and bring increasing storm chances from eastern portions of the Southern Plains to the Lower Mississippi Valley. Very moist southerly return flow from the Gulf will result in a threat for both severe weather and some flash flooding. The best chance for severe weather Thursday will be in southeastern Texas where strengthening wind fields will overspread the more buoyant air close to the Gulf Coast. The Storm Prediction Center has issued an Enhanced Risk of severe weather (level 3/5) for the threat of a few tornadoes. Additionally, some very heavy downpours will be possible, with a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall now in place for the greater Houston area east through southwestern Louisiana where the greatest chance for a few instances of flash flooding is expected. A more isolated threat for severe weather and flash flooding will exist further north into the Arklatex and Lower Mississippi Valley. Storm chances will shift slowly eastward into the Southeast and along the central Gulf coast Thursday, with a continued risk of a couple isolated instances of severe weather and flash flooding. Additional light to moderate precipitation is expected to the north of the surface low track, stretching from the Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley Thursday into the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and interior Northeast Friday. Some snow will likely mix in to the north of a quasi-stationary boundary draped through the region, most likely for portions of the Central Plains Thursday and from the Great Lakes into the interior Northeast Friday. Some light accumulations of 1-2" will be possible. An active pattern of Atmospheric River activity looks to set up along the West Coast through at least this weekend with a series of shortwaves and influx of moisture overspreading the Pacific Northwest/northern California. Coastal/lower elevations will see moderate to locally heavy rain, with the heavier rainfall more likely Friday and then into the weekend. The flood threat currently looks low with this initial rainfall, though will likely slowly increase as antecedent conditions become wetter. Heavy snowfall is forecast for higher elevations in the Cascades, with totals exceeding a foot through the end of the period. Moisture will also spread inland through the Great Basin and Northern Rockies, with a rain/snow mix for lower elevations and moderate to heavy snow in the regional mountain ranges. Any accumulations should be limited for the lower elevations, but some of the mountains could see 6-12", with locally higher amounts. A rain/snow mix at lower elevations and moderate to heavy snow for higher mountain locations will also continue in the Four Corners region through Friday as the upper-level wave currently over the Southwest departs but the pattern remains active with shortwaves dropping southward from the Northwest. Elsewhere, milder temperatures are forecast to return to the East Coast after several chilly days. Conditions will be dry Thursday but rain chances will increase by late Friday as the storm system to the west approaches. Temperatures will be near average with dry conditions from the Northern Plains to the Upper Midwest. Putnam Graphics available at