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Short Range Public Discussion
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 2032Z Mar 31, 2023)
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 432 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023 Valid 00Z Sat Apr 01 2023 - 00Z Mon Apr 03 2023 ...A major severe weather outbreak is forecast to continue into tonight across portions of the Mississippi Valley... ...Winter Storm with Blizzard conditions from Northern Plains to Upper Midwest/Great Lakes tonight... ...Heavy snow across northwestern mountains... ...Critical Fire Weather persists over parts of the Central/Southern Plains for the next several days... A deep upper-level trough will continue to trigger severe weather and excessive rainfall across the Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys from Iowa to Ohio down to eastern Texas tonight. The Storm Prediction Center recently issued a High Risk of Severe Thunderstorms over portions of southeast Iowa, west-central Illinois, far northeastern Missouri, and in parts of eastern Arkansas, northern Mississippi and southwestern Tennessee. A few long-track strong to potentially violent tornadoes are probable, particularly over portions of the Mid-Mississippi Valley to Mid-South. Damaging wind gusts and very large hail are expected as well. People in these areas should remain vigilant and prepared to take emergency precautions if necessary. Conditions should improve later tonight when the line of convection moves into the Tennessee/Ohio Valley and Southeast. Some thunderstorms produce heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding as depicted by a Slight Risk area. Showers and thunderstorms will move into the Eastern third of the country on Saturday. A Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is in effect for parts of the Northeast, Delaware as well as the Southeast where damaging winds will be the main physical weather concern. There's a Marginal risk of flash flooding in the Southeast on Saturday. Shortwave energy swinging through the Southern Plains will draw up another round of Gulf moisture, renewing flash flooding concerns over portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday that might be impacted by rain and thunderstorms from the ongoing event. Simultaneously, a winter storm on te northern side of the mid-latitude cyclone will dump heavy snow, strong winds and blizzard conditions from southern Minnesota, northern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan tonight. Between 6-12 inches of snow is expected with a quarter to half inch of sleet and some freezing rain possible within the transition zones on the southern periphery of the snow shield. The combination of heavy snow, wind, freezing rain and sleet may cause issues to power and other infrastructure tonight. Strong winds and Light to moderate snow will linger over parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes on Saturday. A large upper-level low will spin into the Pacific Northwest tonight, bringing a strong surface low pressure system into the region. Heavy snow is likely to impact the Cascades and Northern Rockies this weekend as a result. Between 1-3 feet is expected for the Northern Rockies while 2-4 feet are possible over the Cascades. All the while, dry and windy conditions will support a Critical Fire Weather threat over portions of southeastern Colorado, southwestern Kansas and western Oklahoma/Texas tonight before shrinking a bit to encompass the Texas-New Mexico border region this weekend into early next week. Warm temperatures in the East will give way to cooler conditions following a strong cold frontal passage on Saturday night. The West remains below average, while the Northern/Central Plains and Midwest drop well below average beneath a building area of high pressure. Kebede Graphics available at