Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
258 AM EST Fri Feb 22 2019

Valid 12Z Fri Feb 22 2019 - 12Z Sun Feb 24 2019

...HIGH Risk of excessive rainfall on Friday with more heavy rain likely
in the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys...

...Thunderstorms will continue into Saturday for the Lower Mississippi and
Tennessee Valleys, with severe weather likely...

...Heavy snow ongoing in the Four Corners region will spread into the
Northern/Central Plains and Upper Midwest, with freezing rain and high
winds likely as well...

Copious amounts of moisture will continue streaming into the southeastern
U.S. over the next couple of days. This along with a quasi-stationary
front that will eventually lift north as a warm front is expected to
continue producing heavy rain and thunderstorms across the south central
and southeastern U.S. The biggest concern on Friday will be for heavy rain
in parts of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys--here, soils are
already oversaturated, so there is a High Risk of excessive rainfall/flash
flooding in those areas. Any additional rain will cause dangerous flooding
conditions. On Saturday, severe weather is forecast for the Lower
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. The Storm Prediction Center has
currently outlooked an Enhanced Risk of severe weather for eastern
Arkansas, northern Mississippi, and southwestern Tennessee. The rain is
expected to finally end on Saturday night after a cold front sweeps
through the region, drying out the atmosphere.

An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward through the Four
Corners region on Friday and into the Plains on Saturday. At the surface,
a low pressure system will slowly move across the Southwest on Friday and
Friday night, then rapidly through the Plains and Middle Mississippi
Valley on Saturday while strengthening. The cold temperatures and the lift
(rising motion of the air) in association with these features will create
more winter weather. Additional snow of 6 to 10 inches is forecast for
higher elevations of the Mongollon Rim and the Southern and Central
Rockies on Friday. As the low tracks east and then northeast, winter
weather will spread to the Northern/Central Plains on Friday and into the
Upper Midwest by Friday night. A swath of 6 to 8 inches of snow is
forecast for the Central Plains, with higher totals of 8 to 12 inches in
the Middle/Upper Mississippi Valley through Sunday morning. Additionally,
freezing rain is expected to accumulate in these areas, with over a tenth
of an inch of ice currently forecast for parts of Iowa, Wisconsin, and
northern Michigan. Hazardous travel conditions are likely. By Sunday
morning, the deep low pressure system will bring strong winds and heavy
snow to the Upper Great Lakes region.

In the Northwest, another upper low is expected to drop southward through
the region and lead to moderate to heavy precipitation there through the
end of the week. Though mainly rain along the Pacific Northwest coast,
snow could mix in even in the lower elevation cities (Seattle and Portland
for example) with the persistent cold conditions. The higher elevations of
the Cascades could see 1 to 2 feet of snow, with moderate to heavy snow in
the Northern Great Basin as well. Temperatures will remain colder than
average in the western half of the CONUS.


Tate


Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php