Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
348 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Valid 12Z Wed Apr 24 2024 - 12Z Fri Apr 26 2024

...Unsettled weather and severe thunderstorm chances gradually expand
across much of the central United States over the next several days...

...Active fire weather pattern to become situated over the southern High
Plains...

...Above average temperatures shift from the Great Basin to the Plains,
while the West and East remain cool through the end of the week...

The benign weather pattern experienced throughout much of the Nation over
the last few days is expected to conclude as developing upper troughing
over the western U.S. helps create a ripe spring severe weather setup over
parts of the central and southern Plains. This trough is expected to enter
the Southwest by early Thursday and swing into the central Plains by
Friday. At the surface, returning moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will
begin to lift northward today and pool along a gradually lifting warm
front draped across the southern Plains. Combined with a southern High
Plains dryline, a few developing thunderstorms could turn severe today
from West Texas to central Oklahoma, as well as the chances for isolated
flash flooding. A greater severe weather threat exists beginning on
Thursday as a surface cyclone rapidly deepens over the central High Plains
in response to the approaching upper level trough. The aforementioned warm
front is expected to continue lifting northward while the High Plains
dryline pushes east. This environment is anticipated to produce numerous
thunderstorms across the central and southern Plains, with scattered
storms turning severe. The Storm Prediction Center has issued an Enhanced
Risk (level 3/5) for severe weather across parts of
southwest/south-central Kansas and western Oklahoma into the eastern Texas
Panhandle. Very large hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple strong
tornadoes will all be possible. Multiple rounds of heavy rain could also
lead to scattered flash flooding, which has prompted a Slight Risk (level
2/4) of Excessive Rainfall across parts of northeast Oklahoma, eastern
Kansas, western Missouri, and northwest Arkansas. By Friday, the
aforementioned low pressure system is forecast to deepen and slide east
into the central Plains while shower and thunderstorm chances also push
eastward into the Upper Midwest, Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, and
southern Plains.

Behind the dryline across the southern High Plains, the combination of
very low relative humidity and gusty winds are expected to create Critical
Fire Weather on Thursday and Friday. Any fires that develop will likely
spread rapidly. Outdoor burning is not recommended. Additionally, gusty
winds up to 55 mph could lead to areas of blowing dust.

Precipitation chances will also exist elsewhere across the Nation. A cold
front crossing the Northeast today will spread showers over the region,
with snow showers possible across northern New England. Unsettled weather
is expected to develop over the West, Great Basin, and Rockies as well
over the next few days underneath the deepening upper trough. Most
precipiation is expected to remain mostly light, with embedded downpours
and high elevation heavy snow by Friday across the Rockies. This active
weather will also lead to a cooling trend throughout the West compared to
the spring warmth felt over the last few days. Chilly weather is also
forecast across the Northeast through the end of the week as high pressure
builds southward from Canada. Low temperatures could dip below freezing on
Thursday morning and have prompted Freeze Watches to be issued from the
Lower Great Lakes to southern New England. Most of the above average
warmth will be found throughout the Plains, besides of any areas
experiencing prolonged periods of rainfall, with highs into the 80s
remaining across the Southern Tier States until Friday.

Snell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php