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Short Range Public Discussion
(Latest Discussion - Issued 0755Z Apr 01, 2023)
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 355 AM EDT Sat Apr 01 2023 Valid 12Z Sat Apr 01 2023 - 12Z Mon Apr 03 2023 ...Strong winds and severe thunderstorms possible across the Ohio Valley, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic today... ...Heavy snow to diminish across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes this morning before the next winter storm begins to develop over the central High Plains Monday night... ...Heavy mountain snow continues across the Pacific Northwest... ...Critical Fire Weather persists over parts of the Central/Southern Plains for the next several days... An elongated and strong area of low pressure over the Great Lakes this morning, combined with both a leading and secondary cold front extending to the south-southwest, will produce a large area of potentially damaging wind gusts from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic through tonight. Maximum wind gusts could approach 60 mph throughout much of the Appalachians, upper Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic today. Winds of this magnitude are likely to blow down numerous trees and potentially lead to widespread power outages. High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories are in effect. Additionally, severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening as the secondary cold front and newly developing low pressure system swing into the Interior Northeast. Warming temperatures this afternoon are expected to help lead to an environment conducive for severe thunderstorm development along the secondary cold front as it pushes from the Ohio Valley to the Northeast, with storms capable of containing damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes. A few severe thunderstorms are also possible further to the south as the aforementioned cold front reaches the Southeast today. On the cold side of this system, heavy snow and gusty winds are expected to come to an end across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes this morning as the area of low pressure quickly slides east. The next major winter storm (not an April Fools' joke) is set to begin forming across the central Great Basin and Rockies on Monday before eventually swinging into the central/northern High Plains on Monday night. A deep upper-level low diving into the West will be responsible for the potential widespread area of heavy snow, as well as the likelihood of strong winds. The greatest potential for over 8 inches of snow through early Tuesday is forecast to stretch from the mountainous terrain of Utah to southeast Wyoming, western South Dakota, and northwest Nebraska. The combination of heavy snowfall rates and gusty winds in these regions are likely to make travel very dangerous. Strong southwesterly winds across the Southwest are also likely to lead to travel impacts on Monday, especially for high profile vehicles, as wind gusts potentially exceed 60 mph. For the Pacific Northwest, continued onshore flow underneath the deep-upper level trough is expected to produce very heavy snow across much of the Cascades through early next week. Total snowfall amounts are likely to approach 3 to 4 feet, with slightly lesser amounts further inland across the northern Rockies. Unsettled and warm weather is forecast throughout much of the south-central U.S. and Deep South to kick off the month of April. A warm front lifting into the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday will combine with an approaching shortwave trough to produce numerous showers and thunderstorms Sunday night. A few storms could contain intense rainfall rates between northeast Texas and central Mississippi, leading to potential flash flooding concerns. Otherwise, well above average temperatures are also set to build into the region by Monday and include widespread highs into the 90s and upper 80s across the Lone Star State. The warm temperatures combined with gusty winds and low relative humidity will contribute to produce Critical Fire Weather conditions throughout the central/southern High Plains. Snell Graphics available at