Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
256 AM EST Wed Mar 03 2021

Valid 12Z Wed Mar 03 2021 - 12Z Fri Mar 05 2021

...A low pressure system will spread precipitation across the southwestern
to south-central CONUS...

...Elevated to Critical Risks of fire weather are in place for portions of
the Southwest to Southern High Plains...

A surface low pressure system along with an upper-level low are forecast
to move across Southern California into the Four Corners states through
Thursday and into the Southern Plains early Friday. Along this track,
precipitation is forecast to spread across these regions, with rain in the
lower elevations and snow in higher elevations. Snow could accumulate to a
few inches in the mountains of Southern California, the Mogollon Rim, and
Wasatch, while the Central Rockies and San Juan Mountains could see 6-12
inches of snow through Friday morning. Showers and a few thunderstorms are
forecast for the Southern/Central Plains late Thursday into Friday.

Another threat with this system will be fire danger. An Elevated Risk of
fire weather as well as Red Flag Warnings are in effect for much of
Arizona today. On Thursday, as winds increase and humidity dries out
behind the cold front, a Critical Risk of fire weather is in place for the
Southern High Plains.

Elsewhere, the Southeast should see rain and thunderstorms ending today
after a low pressure system moves away into the Atlantic. Light snow is
possible in the interior Northeast through Thursday, with snow
accumulating to a few inches possible in higher elevations. The Pacific
Northwest can expect precipitation chances to increase late Thursday into
Friday as an upper-level low and frontal system approach.

Temperature-wise, the Northern Plains should continue to see rather mild
temperatures with highs nearing or exceeding 60 degrees over the next
several days, about 20-30 degrees above average. The Southeast can expect
cooler than normal temperatures today, while Thursday will be chillier
than average in the Northeast.

Tate

Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php