Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 PM EDT Fri Oct 25 2024

Valid 00Z Sat Oct 26 2024 - 00Z Mon Oct 28 2024

...Rain over parts of the Northwest this weekend along with increasing
winds over interior portions of the Northwest...

...Warm and dry for many across the lower 48...

A large upper level low/trough will move into the northwestern U.S. this
weekend, bringing rain to the Pacific Northwest tonight into Saturday
morning and continuing through the weekend. Rainfall intensity will vary
over the next two days but total rainfall through Sunday of 2 to 4 inches
across the Coastal Ranges and Cascades (locally higher) will be beneficial
as much of the region has been drier than average over the past month.
Snow will be limited to the highest elevations of the Olympics and
Washington/Oregon Cascades, at least through Sunday morning, before colder
air filters in for the latter half of Sunday.

Excluding the Northwest, outside of a few showers and thunderstorms from
the Ozarks to the central Appalachians and southern Mid-Atlantic near a
progressive cold front, much of the lower 48 will remain warm and dry
through Sunday. This will be due to a lack of higher atmospheric moisture
and the stabilizing influence of high pressure from the Great Plains to
the East Coast. Locations to the south of the progressive cold front, from
the Southeast into Texas, as well as portions of the Southwest, will see
high temperatures of 10 to 20 degrees above late October averages this
weekend. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s across the Deep South may
break a few daily high temperature records. Farther north, while not
expected to be record breaking warmth, anomalous high temperatures of 15
to 25 degrees above average will focus from the central to northern High
Plains this weekend with downsloping winds aloft. In advance of the storm
system to impact the Northwest, some of these winds will be gusty across
interior portions of the Northwest to north-central U.S., especially in
the lee of the northern Rockies in Montana where a High Wind Watch is in
effect for Sunday with wind gusts of 55 to 70 mph possible.

One exception to the warm and dry conditions for much of the nation will
be southeast of lakes Erie and Ontario where lake effect showers will keep
temperatures cooler than average behind a series of cold fronts. Northern
New England will also see showers under the influence of upper troughing
and a series of cold fronts. Some snow mixing in will also be possible for
Saturday night into Sunday from the Adirondacks into northern Vermont, New
Hampshire and Maine.

Cooler than average temperatures will also extend southward into the
Mid-Atlantic region, but conditions will remain dry for these southern
locations. A few lake effect showers are also expected for the eastern
U.P. of Michigan and northern Lower Michigan this weekend but temperatures
will be a little above average through Sunday.

Otto


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php