Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Valid 00Z Sat Jun 29 2024 - 00Z Mon Jul 01 2024

...Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding possible across portions of the
central Plains and Midwest today...

...Unsettled weather with the potential for heavy rain and strong storms
enter the Lower Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley on Saturday...

...Dangerously hot conditions will continue from parts of the southern
Plains to the Southeast this weekend...


A low pressure system is pushing across the northern and central Plains
this afternoon. The low pressure center is moving east along the
U.S.-Canada border with a trailing cold front extending south and west
from the Upper Mississippi Valley through the Central Plains and a warm
front lifting north across the Midwest ahead of the system. Conditions
will be favorable for scattered severe thunderstorms to develop through
this evening, and potential storm hazards may include large hail, damaging
winds, and a couple of tornadoes. Strong storms may also produce locally
heavy rainfall that could lead to instances of flash flooding,
particularly in areas where soils are saturated from recent heavy rains
and areas where training/repeating storms develop.  

The low pressure system will track eastwards on Saturday, slowly moving
across the Upper Great Lakes region, with the trailing cold front
extending back through the Ohio and Middle Mississippi Valleys to the
central Plains and southern Rockies and with the leading warm front
lifting across the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast. Shower and
thunderstorm chances will shift east with the system, and some storms may
become severe on Saturday. The main storm hazards will include scattered
damaging winds, a couple of tornadoes, and locally heavy downpours. Due to
the slow moving nature of the showers and storms, isolated to scattered
instances of flash flooding will be possible along the entire length of
the cold front.

On Sunday, the system will gain a bit more momentum, and the central low
will push into southeastern Canada while the trailing cold front moves
towards the East Coast. Meanwhile, another low pressure system will
develop over the Pacific Northwest/southern Canada, which will bring
precipitation chances back to the Pacific Northwest on Sunday that will
spread into the northern and central Plains on Monday.

Dangerous heat will continue to be a major weather story through the last
couple days of June as an upper level ridge strengthens over the
south-central U.S. and the Southeast. This will lead to above average
temperatures impacting areas from the central/southern Plains to the
Southeast, with summer heat also building across the Southwest and
northern High Plains by Sunday. High temperatures are forecast to reach
the upper 90s and low 100s in the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi
Valley today, where Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories are in
effect. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms may keep the sizzling heat at
bay across the Southeast, but highs into the mid-90s can still be expected
this weekend. If spending time outdoors be sure to follow proper heat
safety by taking frequent breaks, staying hydrated, and checking on
neighbors.

Dolan


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php