Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
317 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Valid 12Z Fri Jun 28 2024 - 12Z Sun Jun 30 2024

...Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding possible across portions of the
central Plains and Midwest today...

...Unsettled weather with the potential for heavy rain and strong storms
enter the Lower Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley on Saturday...

...Dangerously hot conditions will continue from parts of the southern
Plains to the Southeast this weekend...


A storm system crossing the northern tier of the Nation from the northern
Plains today to northern New England on Sunday will be the catalyst for
pockets of unsettled weather through the final weekend of June. The upper
trough and area of low pressure are forecast to ride along the
U.S.-Canadian border through early Saturday and usher warm, moist air from
the Gulf of Mexico towards the Midwest. Developing thunderstorms across
the central Plains and Midwest are anticipated to take advantage of the
buoyant atmosphere while also using nearby frontal boundaries as a focus
for organization. Some storms could turn severe and contain damaging wind
gusts, large hail, and tornadoes between northeast Colorado and the
Mid-Mississippi Valley. Additionally, slow-moving and/or repeating
thunderstorms could lead to scattered areas of flash flooding across parts
of Iowa and central/northern Missouri into tonight.

The aforementioned low pressure system is forecast to push across the
Upper Great Lakes and enter southeast Canada on Saturday, while a warm
front lifts northward across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Meanwhile, an
approaching cold front is forecast to near the Lower Great Lakes by
Saturday afternoon and spark strong to severe thunderstorms from the Ohio
Valley to the Interior Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic. Damaging winds
gusts and a few tornadoes are forecast to be the main weather hazard,
particularly for parts of Ohio, Pennsylvania, northern West Virginia and
western New York. Instances of heavy rain could also create a flash flood
concern in urban areas and regions with poor drainage. Isolated to
scattered downpours and strong thunderstorms are also possible along the
entire length of the cold front as it stretches westward across the
Mid-Mississippi Valley, central/southern Plains, and Southern Rockies,
with moisture lingering on Sunday across the Four Corners region.

Heat has been a major story over the last few weeks and will continue to
impact parts of the country through the last couple days of June. Upper
level ridging is forecast to remain over the south-central U.S. today
before sliding to the Southeast on Saturday and then restrengthening over
the central Plains by the end of the weekend. This will lead to above
average high temperatures impacting areas from the central/southern Plains
to the Southeast, with summer heat also building across the Southwest and
northern High Plains by Sunday. Upper 90s and low 100s are the expected
high temperatures in the southern Plains today, where Excessive Heat
Warnings and Heat Advisories have been issued. Scattered afternoon
thunderstorms may keep the sizzling heat at bay across the Southeast, but
highs into the mid-90s can still be expected this weekend. If spending
time outdoors be sure to follow proper heat safety by taking frequent
breaks, staying hydrated, and checking on neighbors.

Snell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php