Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
405 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Valid 00Z Sat Jul 27 2024 - 00Z Mon Jul 29 2024

...Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across portions of the
South this evening with a risk for flash flooding in the coastal
Carolinas, southern Lower Mississippi Valley, and southeastern Texas...

...Hot weather is in store across portions of the Northern Plains and
Upper Midwest before a cold front brings the risk of severe thunderstorms
on Saturday and heavy downpours on Sunday...

...Monsoonal thunderstorms continue for portions of the Intermountain West
with isolated flash flooding possible...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across portions of the
South this evening, particularly for the coastal Carolinas, the southern
Lower Mississippi Valley, and southeastern Texas. These showers and storms
will be capable of producing heavy to locally intense downpours given
plentiful moisture and several disturbances in place. Heavy rain combined
with wet antecedent conditions from previous rainfall will increase the
risk for scattered instances of flash flooding. As a result, the
aforementioned areas continue to be highlighted by a Slight Risk of
Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4). An isolated to scattered threat for flash
flooding will exist more broadly across the region on Saturday, though
southeast Texas will again be a focus for more concentrated heavy
rainfall. By Sunday, the risk for downpours and potential flash flooding
concerns shifts to the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys to round out the weekend.

A cold front will advance across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest on
Saturday, bringing the potential for scattered thunderstorms capable of
producing severe weather. Ahead of the front, temperatures will soar well
into the 90s, with humidity making it feel even hotter. The hot and humid
weather will set the stage with plenty of fuel for storms to work with.
The increasing instability along with the arrival of stronger winds aloft
is expected to produce at least a few intense thunderstorms. As a result,
the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk of severe weather
(level 2/5) for portions of northwestern Minnesota and eastern North
Dakota, with large hail and damaging winds the greatest threats. The cold
front slows down on Sunday, which may allow showers and thunderstorms to
evolve into more of a heavy rain and flash flooding threat across the
Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.

Monsoonal showers will continue across portions of the Intermountain West
on Saturday, particularly from the Southwest north through the Rockies and
central Great Basin. Deep moisture lingering through the area will bring
the threat for some locally intense downpours. Isolated instances of flash
flooding will remain possible, particularly for terrain sensitive areas
such as burn scars. Forecast highs across the West will generally be below
average with an upper-level trough overhead, with highs in the 80s and 90s
across the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, Rockies, and interior
California, and 60s and 70s along the Pacific Coast. The Desert Southwest
will be much hotter, with highs in the low to mid-110s. The hot weather
and dry conditions outside of monsoonal storms will continue to foster
fire weather concerns across portions of the West, with smoke from
wildfires resulting in continued unhealthy air quality.

Elsewhere, mainly dry weather is in store from the Midwest to the
Northeast with high pressure in control. Forecast highs will warm up a bit
more each day through the weekend, reaching into the mid-to upper 80s.

Miller/Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php