Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
251 PM EST Fri Feb 22 2019
Valid 00Z Sat Feb 23 2019 - 00Z Mon Feb 25 2019
...HIGH Risk of excessive rainfall through Saturday morning across the
Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys...
...Thunderstorms will continue into Saturday for the Lower Mississippi and
Tennessee Valleys, with severe weather likely...
...Heavy snow ongoing in the Four Corners region will spread into the
Northern/Central Plains and Upper Midwest, with freezing rain and high
winds likely as well...
Plentiful amounts of moisture will continue streaming into the
southeastern U.S. through the first half of the weekend. This along with a
quasi-stationary front that will eventually lift north as a warm front is
expected to continue producing heavy rain and thunderstorms across the
south central and southeastern U.S. The biggest concern tonight will be
for heavy rain in parts of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys--here, soils are already over saturated and flooding is occurring,
so there is a High Risk of excessive rainfall/flash flooding in those
areas. Any additional rain through Saturday night will cause more
dangerous flooding. Another concern Saturday will be severe weather across
the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. The Storm Prediction Center
has currently outlooked an Enhanced Risk of severe weather for eastern
Arkansas, northern Mississippi, and southwestern Tennessee. The rain is
expected to finally end on Saturday night after a cold front sweeps
through the region, drying out the atmosphere.
A strong upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward through the
Southern Rockies early Saturday morning and into the Plains by Saturday
afternoon. At the surface, a low pressure system will slowly move across
the Southwest Friday night, then rapidly through the Plains and Middle
Mississippi Valley on Saturday while strengthening. The cold temperatures
and the lift (rising motion of the air) in association with these features
will create more winter weather. Snowfall intensity will increase from
western Kansas to southern and eastern Nebraska and into southwest Iowa
during the day Saturday with around 6 inches of snow forecast over western
Kansas and 2 to 6 inches across southern Nebraska and southwest Iowa by
Saturday evening. Snow and wind will increase from Iowa northeastward to
Wisconsin through Saturday night with travel becoming hazardous in these
areas. By Sunday morning, snowfall amounts of 6 to 8 inches are expected
in a swath from central Iowa to the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan.
As the storm continues to intensify over the Great Lakes, and even after
accumulating snow ends across the Plains and Upper Midwest, high winds
will contribute to considerable blowing and drifting snow through Sunday.
Near blizzard to blizzard conditions will be possible across portions of
the Plains and Upper Midwest. Travel will remain difficult and scattered
power outages will also be possible. The high winds will shift to the
northern Appalachians and Northeast by Sunday afternoon.
In the Northwest, the wintry pattern continues as another upper low is
expected to drop southward through the region and lead to moderate to
heavy precipitation through the weekend. Though mainly rain along the
Pacific Northwest coast, snow could mix in even in the lower elevation
cities (Seattle and Portland for example) with the persistent cold
conditions. Where rain does fall, it could be heavy at times, with total
rainfall amounts reaching upwards of 5 inches through Sunday evening. The
higher elevations of the Cascades could see 1 to 2 feet of snow, with
moderate to heavy snow in the Northern Great Basin as well. Temperatures
will remain colder than average in the western half of the CONUS.
Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php