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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Latest Discussion - Issued 0758Z Apr 15, 2024)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 358 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 12Z Mon Apr 15 2024 - 12Z Wed Apr 17 2024 ...Intensifying storm system to bring the threat of severe weather and isolated flash flooding to the Plains Monday, followed by the Mississippi Valley on Tuesday... ...Scattered thunderstorms, including the threat for some severe weather, from the Upper Ohio Valley east through the Mid-Atlantic Monday... ...Moderate to locally heavy snowfall expected over the next couple of days for higher elevations of the northern Cascades, northern/central Rockies, and eastern Great Basin... ...Well above average temperatures across the Central/Eastern U.S; Critical Risk of Fire Weather for the central/southern High Plains Monday.... A deep, upper-level low and associated low pressure/frontal system over the West will begin to push into the Plains Monday. The accompanying height falls will help lead to lee cyclogenesis, rapidly deepening/organizing the low pressure system over the central High Plains. Gulf moisture return aided by intensifying southerly flow will eventually lead to increasing shower and thunderstorm chances by Monday evening to the northwest of the low over the central/northern High Plains, along a warm front slowly lifting northward through the Missouri and Middle Mississippi Valleys, and southward ahead of a dry line/rapidly approaching cold front through the central and southern Plains. An Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms (level 3/5) has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center from the low pressure center in western Nebraska/South Dakota arcing southward ahead of the approaching dry line/cold front across portions of the central Plains. Some more robust, supercell thunderstorms are expected to produce instances of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. A Slight Risk (level 2/5) extends southward into the southern Plains where storm coverage is more uncertain, but any storms that do develop will still pose the same threat. Additionally, there will be a conditional threat for some isolated instances of flash flooding, both along and north of the warm front from the Northern Plains into the Missouri Valley where widespread, but not quite as potent storms will exist, and south into portions of the central/southern Plains where more potent storms will exist, but drier antecedent conditions will limit the risk. The storms will progress eastward with the frontal system through the overnight hours Monday and into the day Tuesday, spreading into the Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley. Areas where residual storms from the night before clear, most likely through the Middle Mississippi Valley southwestward into the Ark-La-Tex, will see a renewed threat for severe thunderstorms. Another Enhanced Risk has been issued for portions of southern Iowa, northern Missouri, and western Illinois near the track of the low pressure center where favorable wind fields will lead to a locally greater threat of very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, including the potential for a strong tornado. A Slight Risk once again extends further south towards the Ark-La-Tex where storms will likely be more isolated, but still pose a threat for all hazards. A broad threat for isolated flash flooding will exist over the region very similar to Monday, with more widespread storms to the north and more isolated but potent downpours possible to the south. Further east, another round of storms is expected Monday along and ahead of a cold front sagging southward through the Upper Ohio/Tennessee Valleys eastward through the southern Mid-Atlantic. There is a Slight Risk of severe weather centered around the Tidewater region of Virginia where enough CAPE for some stronger updrafts will exist, posing a threat for a few instances of large hail and damaging winds. In the West, winter-weather related advisories/warnings are in place for higher elevations of the mountains of the eastern Great Basin and central Rockies where remaining moisture under the influence of the upper-low is forecast to lead to snow accumulations of 6-12"+. Another upper-level wave and accompanying surface frontal system pushing southeastward through the Cascades Monday and northern Rockies Tuesday will bring a similar chance for moderate to locally heavy snowfall for higher mountain elevations. Warmer than average temperatures will continue Monday for most areas of the central/eastern U.S. as upper-level ridging precedes the system over the West. Highs generally in the 80s are expected across the central/southern Plains east through the Mississippi Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast. A few 90s will even be possible over the central/southern High Plains. These hot temperatures and dry conditions, along with intensifying winds due to the deepening low pressure system, have prompted a Critical Risk (level 2/3) of Fire Weather from the Storm Prediction Center Monday. Warm, similarly above average highs are also expected across the northern tier, with most locations outside of the Upper Great Lakes/Interior Northeast forecast to be in the 60s and 70s. Temperatures will slip a few degrees in general Tuesday, but still remain above average for most locations. Cooler temperatures will continue Monday across southern portions of the West under the influence of the upper-low, with 50s and 60s across California and the Great Basin and 70s in the Desert Southwest. Conditions will rebound by about 10 degrees on Tuesday as the upper-low moves eastward over the Plains. Putnam Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php