Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
430 PM EDT Mon Oct 03 2022
Valid 00Z Tue Oct 04 2022 - 00Z Thu Oct 06 2022
...Rainy, breezy, and cool conditions expand from Mid-Atlantic to southern
New England coast...
...Showers and thunderstorms expected across much of New Mexico...
...Above average temperatures forecast for the West Coast, Great Plains
and Mississippi Valley...
A stagnant upper-level low will slowly rotate from the Mid-Atlantic coast
into the western Atlantic over the next couple of days. Showers and
thunderstorms will slowly spread across the Mid-Atlantic coast today
before shifting northward into parts of the New Jersey and New England
coasts on Tuesday. The prolonged nature of this rain event may cause
coastal flooding from southeast Virginia up into Long Island where Coastal
Flood Advisories and Warnings are in effect. Cool and breezy conditions
are expected to continue due to clouds and northerly flow into the region
paired with a sharp isobaric gradient along the coast. High temperature
records may be tied or broken across the Mid-Atlantic coast on Tuesday as
highs fail to make it out of the 50s.
Elsewhere, shortwave energy will supply sufficient moisture and
instability to support shower and thunderstorm activity across much of New
Mexico through Tuesday. Isolated flash flooding is possible over
susceptible land surfaces. Light showers may focus along a weak cold front
which is forecast to move through the Northern/Central Plains on Tuesday.
An amplifying upper ridge will keep things clear and warm across much of
the West with high temperatures likely to be between 10-20 degrees above
average over the next few days. An upper trough swinging through the
mid-section of the country will draw warm southerly air into the Plains
and Mississippi Valley through Wednesday.
Graphics are available at