Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
250 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022

Valid 00Z Sat Jun 25 2022 - 00Z Mon Jun 27 2022

...Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding possible for parts of the
northern Plains and Upper Midwest through tonight...

...Monsoonal moisture and an approaching cold front to create the threat
of heavy rain and instances of flash flooding over portions of the
Southwest and southern Rockies through this weekend...

...Stifling heat persists across the South while temperatures also climb
for much of the Pacific Northwest...

A potent upper-level trough over the northern Rockies and an associated
cold front advancing southeast will set the stage for numerous rounds of
showers and thunderstorms across the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi
Valley going through tonight into early Saturday. An anomalously warm and
moist airmass ahead of the approaching front will lead to conditions
favorable for thunderstorms to turn severe. The Storm Prediction Center
has maintained an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms for
eastern North Dakota, northeastern South Dakota, and northwestern
Minnesota. Damaging wind gusts, very large hail, and a couple of tornadoes
are possible, with the potential for severe thunderstorms extending
southward to Nebraska and western Iowa as well. Along with the severe
potential, heavy rain may lead to some flash flooding from eastern North
Dakota to northern Minnesota. A Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive
rainfall has been issued to highlight this concern.

Meanwhile, monsoonal moisture will remain in place throughout the
Southwest and into the southern/central Rockies through this weekend. This
will lead to continuing chances for scattered thunderstorms and at least
an isolated threat of flash flooding. By Saturday, a cold front is still
expected to approach and should focus more organized convection from
northern New Mexico to southwest Kansas. These thunderstorms may be
slow-moving and will be capable of producing heavy rainfall amounts. Some
of the burn scar locations in the Sangre De Cristo range of south-central
Colorado and northern Mew Mexico will be particularly vulnerable to runoff
concerns and flash flooding due to this heavy rainfall potential. A Slight
Risk of excessive rainfall has been issued for these regions on both
Saturday and Sunday. Elsewhere, chances for scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue across the eastern Gulf Coast, Southeast, and
Florida through this weekend.

Dangerous heat will remain a concern over much of the South through this
weekend. High temperatures underneath a stagnant upper-level ridge will
soar into the upper-90s and low 100s from the southern Plains to the
eastern Gulf Coast. Heat Advisories have been issued from central Texas to
the western Florida Peninsula as heat indices potentially approach 115
degrees through this evening. Excessive Heat Warnings are posted for parts
of Louisiana, including New Orleans, as well as southern Mississippi and
the Big Bend of Florida. Slightly cooler air will enter parts of the
Southeast and Florida on Saturday as easterly winds off of the western
Atlantic offer some relief. However, sweltering heat is forecast to
continue across the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley while
potentially threatening a few daily high temperature records. Farther
north, above average temperatures with highs into the upper-90s will reach
into the mid-Mississippi Valley on Saturday ahead of the approaching
upstream cold front, with low 90s making it into the northern Appalachians
on Sunday. For the Pacific Northwest, summer is finally making an
appearance and could bring with it dangerous heat. Highs are forecast to
climb each day through Sunday and reach into the 90s across much of the
region, with 100s farther south into the central valley region of
California. Heat Advisories have been issued for western portions of
Washington and Oregon for Saturday and Sunday.

Snell/Orrison

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php