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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Latest Discussion - Issued 0824Z Jul 25, 2024)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 AM EDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 12Z Thu Jul 25 2024 - 12Z Sat Jul 27 2024 ...Another day of major to locally extreme Heat Risk across the northern High Plains before cooler air arrives behind a cold front... ...Excessive Rainfall is forecast for the Texas coast through tonight with more scattered showers and thunderstorms across the southern tier states to the East Coast... ...Monsoonal thunderstorms continue across the Great Basin and into the Four Corners region with threats of localized flash flooding while fire weather danger emerges over the interior Northwest... A slow-to-evolve summertime weather pattern will continue across much of the U.S. mainland while a more progressive Pacific cold front sweeps across the northwestern part of the country through the next couple of days. Under this weather pattern, unsettled weather and relatively cool temperatures for July will continue across the South as well as the Great Lakes. The stronger forcing associated with the Pacific front will push the heat dome into the northern High Plains today behind a warm front, resulting in another day of major to locally extreme Heat Risk for the region. High temperatures will once again reach well up into the 100s with little to no rainfall expected. Meanwhile, the heat will continue to become less intense over the Central Valley of California and the Desert Southwest. Some of the hot air over the northern Plains will be pushed into the upper Midwest by the weekend with highs reaching into the 80s and 90s. Please continue to practice heat safety before cooler air arrives behind the cold front. The Pacific cold front currently making its way through the northern Rockies into the High Plains will gradually become nearly stationary through the next couple of days. Lightning associated with dry thunderstorms triggered by the passage of the cold front will raise fire danger concerns over the interior northwestern U.S. into the northern High Plains. Farther south, monsoonal thunderstorms across the Great Basin today will shift farther eastward into the Four Corners and as far north as Wyoming through the next couple of days. In contrast to the heat in the West, cooler than normal temperatures will prevail across the mid-section of the country and portions of the eastern U.S. where a stalled front will keep plenty of clouds along with scattered thunderstorms. It appears that coastal sections of Texas will see the highest chance of receiving heavy rainfall today into tonight as some influx of tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico could interact with the weak front under a broad upper-level southwesterly flow ahead of a trough. A moderate risk of excessive rainfall remains in place from the mid and upper Texas coast to southwestern Louisiana through tonight. Thunderstorms across other areas of the southern tier states are not expected to be severe, but they could result in localized flooding issues from time to time. The same is true along the East Coast with a slight risk of excessive rainfall over portions of the Carolinas through Friday night where storms are expected to be more numerous. Meanwhile, showers and a few embedded thunderstorms today across New England will clear out by Friday as a low pressure wave moves away into eastern Canada. Kong Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php