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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Latest Discussion - Issued 2006Z Oct 24, 2021)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 406 PM EDT Sun Oct 24 2021 Valid 00Z Mon Oct 25 2021 - 00Z Wed Oct 27 2021 ...There is a High Risk of excessive rainfall over the Sierra Nevada Mountains and a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over the Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys through Monday morning... ...Heavy snow for the Sierra Nevada Mountains... ...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Middle/Lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys through Monday morning... A strong storm just west of the Pacific Northwest Coast will impact the West Coast over the next several days. Strong onshore flow will stream moisture into Northern/Central California, producing heavy rain and snow over parts of California. Therefore, the WPC has issued a High Risk of excessive rainfall over the Sierra Nevada Mountains through Monday morning. Significant and potentially life-threatening flash flooding flash is expected with the storm. Some areas that normally do not experience flash flooding will flood. Heavy snow is also forecast for the Sierra Nevada Mountains through late Monday afternoon. The excessive rainfall threat lessens to a Slight Risk over parts of the Sierra Nevada Mountains with a Marginal Risk over other parts of the Sierra Nevada Mountains and parts of the Southern California Coast from Monday into Tuesday morning. The excessive rainfall threat ends on Tuesday for California. Moreover, rain and highest elevation snow will develop over parts of the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Intermountain Region and continue into Monday. On Monday, after the front passes, the snow levels will lower over the Northwest portion of the country. On Tuesday, rain and higher elevation snow move into the Rockies, with rain developing over parts of the Northern/Central High Plains by Tuesday evening. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure over the Central Plains and associated front will interact with moisture flowing northward over the Plains/Mississippi Valley to produce showers and thunderstorms over the region through Monday afternoon, with some storms becoming severe. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Middle/Lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys through Monday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Furthermore, there is a 10% or greater probability of EF2-EF5 tornadoes over parts of the region and a 10% or greater probability of wind gust of 65 knots or greater. Additionally, there is a 10% or greater probability of two-inch or great hail over parts of northeastern Missouri through Monday morning. However, the severe thunderstorm threat is not the only threat over the Midwest. Heavy rain will develop along the front, therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall with the rain and thunderstorms over parts of the Ohio Valley through Monday Morning. The associated heavy rain will create numerous areas of flash flooding. Furthermore, many streams may flood, potentially affecting larger rivers. As the system moves eastward, the risk of severe thunderstorms weakens slightly to a Slight Risk over parts of the Mid-Atlantic and the Central/Southern Appalachians on Monday. Also, rain will develop over parts of the Great Lakes Sunday evening into Monday. The rain moves into parts of the Northeast early on Monday. On Tuesday morning, the area of low pressure moves to the northern Mid-Atlantic Coast and off the New England Coast by Tuesday evening. Overnight Monday into Tuesday, the low aids in streaming moisture into the Northeast, producing heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall with the rain. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable starting on Tuesday and going through Tuesday night. Lastly, the front associated with the Pacific Northwest system moves out of the Rockies and onto the Plains by Tuesday evening. The system will produce rain and thunderstorms over the Plains on Tuesday evening. Ziegenfelder Graphics are available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php