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Short Range Public Discussion
(Latest Discussion - Issued 0729Z Jan 28, 2023)
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 229 AM EST Sat Jan 28 2023 Valid 12Z Sat Jan 28 2023 - 12Z Mon Jan 30 2023 ...Heavy snow possible across parts of the central Rockies, Midwest, and Great Lakes... ...Arctic air surging southward into the central United States and Intermountain West this weekend to produce potentially dangerous wind chills... ...Instances of heavy rain and flash flooding possible throughout the Gulf Coast and Southeast on Sunday... The main weather story over the next few days will be associated with an arctic cold front diving southward through the Great Plains and Intermountain West, bringing bitter cold temperatures in its wake and the chance for impactful snow. For the northern/central High Plains, Rockies, and western U.S. mountain ranges, snow is expected to continue along and behind the frontal boundary today and focus over the central Rockies by Sunday. The heaviest additional snowfall totals are forecast to occur over the higher elevations of Wyoming and western Colorado, where multiple feet of snow are possible. Heavy snow may also swing into the southern California mountains on Sunday, which could make travel difficult through Cajon Pass in particular. Widespread Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for much of the region due to the potential for snowfall to make driving conditions treacherous. Snow could be heavy at times and drastically reduce visibility, making travel even more dangerous. Low pressure developing and riding along the frontal boundary over the central Plains this morning is producing an axis of moderate to locally heavy snow just to the north of its center. An additional narrow swath of 4-6" of snow, with locally higher totals, is forecast from northern Iowa through Lower Michigan by early Sunday. In addition to the potential for snow, frigid temperatures will overspread much of the region as strong high pressure in western Canada sends a surge of arctic air southward behind the frontal boundary draped across the Intermountain West and Plains. Temperatures 20 to 40 degrees below average are forecast to spread into the northern Rockies and northern/central Plains by Sunday, with highs only reaching into the single digits and lows dropping into the minus teens. Gusty winds will make it feel even colder and could lead to dangerous conditions for individuals spending an extended amount of time outdoors. As the arctic frontal boundary progresses southward into the southern Plains, a northward surge of warm and moist air ahead of the system will produce showers and thunderstorms across the Gulf Coast and Southeast. A few storms will have the capability of containing intense rainfall rates, which could lead to scattered instances of flash flooding. Additionally, a few isolated thunderstorms are also possible on Sunday along the central Gulf Coast. A Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of Excessive Rainfall has been issued for southeastern Texas and western Louisiana today to further highlight the chances for flash flooding, with the threat expanding in severity and areal coverage on Sunday, as a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall covers the entirety of the Gulf Coast and into southern Georgia. Snell Graphics available at