Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
326 AM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021
Valid 12Z Sun Jul 25 2021 - 12Z Tue Jul 27 2021
...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southwest through Monday morning...
...Excessive Heat Warning over parts of Idaho and eastern Oregon...
...Excessive Heat Watch over parts of the Northern High Plains; Heat
Advisory over parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southern Plains...
Monsoonal moisture and upper-level energy will aid in producing showers
and thunderstorms, and some will produce heavy rain over the Southwest and
the Central/Southern Rockies through Tuesday. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable
through Monday morning. However, the excessive rainfall threat is starting
to lessen from Sunday into Tuesday as the monsoonal moisture decreases.
A front extending from the Lower Great Lakes to the Middle Mississippi
Valley then into the Northern High Plains will move off to the
Northeast/northern Mid-Atlantic Coast while extending from the southern
Mid-Atlantic across the Ohio Valley into the Northern Plains by Tuesday.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the boundary
over Northeast to the Ohio Valley and the Lower Mississippi Valley on
Sunday. The thunderstorms over the Northeast into the Ohio Valley will be
strong to severe on Sunday. The showers and thunderstorms will move off
Northeast Coast while continuing over the Mid-Atlantic to parts of the
Lower Mississippi Valley on Monday. As the front continues to move
southward, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the
Southeast to the Lower Mississippi Valley on Monday night into Tuesday.
Meanwhile, there is an Excessive Heat Warning over parts of Idaho and
eastern Oregon, where temperatures rise into the 100s through Sunday. The
100s will move into Northern Plains and Northern High Plains on Monday and
Tuesday. Furthermore, Heat Advisories are currently in effect for
portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the Southern Plains,
while an Excessive Heat Warning affects the Kansas City metro area.
Additionally, several regions have Air Quality Alerts due to wildfires
over the Northwest into the Northern Rockies.
Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php