Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
254 AM EST Tue Jan 23 2024

Valid 12Z Tue Jan 23 2024 - 12Z Thu Jan 25 2024

...Heavy rainfall and concerns for flash flooding will exist through
Thursday morning across the Lower Mississippi Valley...

...A swath of freezing rain and some accumulating snowfall will impact
portions of the Midwest, Lower Great Lakes, and the Northeast...

...Much milder air with temperatures surging well above normal can be
expected by the middle of the week for much of the eastern half of the
country...

Temperatures across a vast portion of the central and eastern U.S. will
moderate as a series of storm systems from the Pacific Ocean cross the
Southwest before ejecting east across the southern states. This pattern
will be favorable for widespread area of unsettled weather for the
Midwest, Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, Northeast, and large areas of the South
through the middle of the week.

Multiple waves of low pressure advancing along a slow-moving front across
the Lower Mississippi Valley will encounter a resurgence of moisture and
instability from the Gulf of Mexico which will aid in development of heavy
showers and thunderstorms today through Thursday. Several inches is
expected which will increase the threat for flooding across the South. The
Weather Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall
across portions of these areas, and locally significant flash flooding may
be possible given the expectation of as much as 4 to 8 inches of rain
going through Wednesday.

The resurgence of warm air and moisture northward over the retreating cold
air will foster areas of freezing rain today and into Wednesday across
areas of the Midwest, Lower Great Lakes, and the Northeast. The cold air
may still be deep enough to result in some accumulating snowfall as well,
and especially for areas of Lower Michigan and southwest New York where a
few inches of snow will be possible. For areas where freezing rain are
expected, there may be as much as a tenth of an inch of ice accretion
which will result in locally hazardous travel conditions.

The Southwest will be cooler through midweek was the frontal systems pass
through. The intrusion of Pacific air downstream across the central and
eastern U.S., and southerly flow off the Gulf of Mexico, will result in
considerably milder temperatures by midweek for the eastern half of the
country. A few locations may have daily high temperatures as much as 20
degrees above seasonal average by Wednesday.

Campbell/Orrison


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php