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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Latest Discussion - Issued 1701Z Dec 15, 2019)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1201 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2019 Valid 00Z Mon Dec 16 2019 - 00Z Wed Dec 18 2019 ...Widespread wintry weather expected from the central Plains to the Northeast today through Tuesday... ...Strong to severe thunderstorms likely across the Deep South on Monday... ...Santa Ana winds impact southern California Monday into Tuesday... Heavy snow is developing and expanding across the central Plains this Sunday northeast of a surface low moving across the southern Plains, where more than a foot of snow is expected for today over the higher elevations of southern Colorado. As the associated upper-level disturbance quickly moves across the southern Rockies, snow, freezing rain and mixed precipitation will spread eastward into the Midwest later today and into the Ohio Valley tonight. By Monday morning, a wide swath of snow is expected to impact areas from the central Plains eastward through the Midwest, the lower Great Lakes, central Appalachians, and into the northern Mid-Atlantic states. By Monday night into Tuesday morning, much of New England will see snow spreading in while mild air aloft will likely transition the snow to freezing rain across southern New England. Cold air moving in behind the system combined with a weaker system moving in from the west should lead to lake effect snows downwind of all the Great Lakes on Tuesday. The coastal sections of the Northeast should see the snow changing over to plain rain by Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, thunderstorms will become likely across the Deep South as the low pressure system intensifies along a sharp front. Fueled by increasing moisture, warmth and instability from the Gulf of Mexico, the thunderstorms will likely become strong to severe as they sweep across the central and eastern Gulf states Monday and Monday night. In the wake of the front, a strong high pressure system builds into the Great Basin will set up a dry, gusty northeast flow across California on Monday and Tuesday, with the promise of cool, Santa Ana winds which appear to be moderate in strength. Due to recent rains wetting area vegetation, fire weather danger looks low per guidance from the Storm Prediction Center. Kong/Roth Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php