Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
207 AM EST Sat Nov 30 2024

Valid 00Z Sun Dec 01 2024 - 00Z Sun Dec 08 2024

Models and ensembles still reasonably agree that easterly trades
will gradually decrease in strength this weekend. Moisture levels
will be on the lower side for fueling of a limited shower focus
for favored windward/mountain areas. Into early next week, trades
look to get disrupted as a cold front approaches from northwest of
Hawaii and there is a general model signal for winds to respond by
turning more southerly, though perhaps weak enough initially for
land and sea breezes to dominate over the islands themselves. By
midweek the western islands may have a greater chance of seeing
southerly/southwesterly winds as the front gets closer, and
guidance suggests the front may reach Kauai around Thursday as a
supporting amplified upper trough slowly passes to the north of
the state. The southerly flow (at least aloft) may gradually
moisten the atmosphere, but with a mid-upper ridging overhead
through at least midweek, shower coverage does not look to expand
much until along the approaching and deeper moisture pooling front
set to work into and slow over the state Friday/next Saturday.

Schichtel