Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
256 AM EST Tue Dec 03 2024

Valid 00Z Wed Dec 04 2024 - 00Z Wed Dec 11 2024

Latest guidance still reasonably agrees in support of only limited
shower activity and moisture in a weak flow with land-sea breezes
and upper ridging aloft through midweek. More southerly responding
winds will then act to increase moisture across the region ahead
of an approaching frontal boundary as an amplified upper trough
passes to the north of the state. The front may slowly move
southeastward across the state starting Thursday and weaken/stall
later week into the weekend. This should lead to increasing rain
chances. Residual moisture will likely linger through the weekend.
Forecast spread increases into longer time frames, but given
upstream upper ridge building over the west-central Pacific in
guidance, favor the approach and digging of an upper trough and
wetter flow settling into and then to the east of the state later
weekend into early next week. Forecast spread has lowered a bit
compared to yesterday with guidance overall trending toward this
moderately amplified solution amid lingering uncertainty,

Schichtel