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Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0716Z Jun 22, 2024)
 
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Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
316 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Valid 00Z Sun Jun 23 2024 - 00Z Sun Jun 30 2024

Latest guidance continues to show a typical easterly trade wind
pattern through the next seven days, supported by high pressure
meandering to the north of the state. Expect brisk to strong winds
through the weekend, followed by somewhat lower wind speeds next
week as the upper high shifts a little to the northwest of Hawaii
and upper troughing approaches from the East. Precipitable water
values should remain mostly below normal, helping to keep
primarily windward/mountain focused showers on the lighter side
most of the time. Models show good overall agreement on this
pattern, but some continued timing uncertainty with the upper
trough/low east of Hawaii. The 00z GFS is on the faster side,
tracking the upper low through Hawaii later in the week, while the
ECMWF, CMC, and the ensemble means support something slower and
more to the east. Either way, not much is expected in terms of
sensible weather from this feature besides overall lighter/weak
wind speeds.

Santorelli