Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
202 AM EST Thu Dec 05 2024

Valid 00Z Fri Dec 06 2024 - 00Z Fri Dec 13 2024

Models and ensembles reasonably agree that southerly winds will
act to increase moisture and rain chances across the region ahead
of an approaching frontal boundary as an amplified upper trough
passes over and to the north of the state. The front should slowly
work southeastward into the state later today into Friday, then
continue to weaken/stall/retreat into the weekend. Expect some
period of post-frontal winds. Forecast spread increases marginally
for next week and upstream upper ridge building over the central
Pacific should favor the approach and digging of an upper trough
and some pooled moisture into, but primarily settling to the east
of the state later weekend into next week in a pattern with
building island trades as high pressure bridges back to the north
of the state. This seems to favor a return of a protracted, but
limited, windward terrain focusing rain/shower pattern.

Schichtel