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Extended Forecast Discussion
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0700Z Apr 01, 2023)
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Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EDT Sat Apr 01 2023

Valid 12Z Tue Apr 04 2023 - 12Z Sat Apr 08 2023

...Blizzard threat across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest
into Tuesday/Wednesday...
...Heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms from the South into the
Midwest Tuesday, lingering rest of the week over the South...
...Winter cold for the West and North-central U.S. next week to
starkly contrast summer heat that shifts east from the South to
the East/Southeast next week...

...Synoptic Overview...

Energetic closed upper trough ejection out from thr West/Rockies
will foster deep storm genesis and track from the central Plains
to the Upper Midwest Tuesday into Wednesday. Winter cold, heavy
snow and high winds to the north of the track of the powerful low
presure system offer a threat for blizzard conditions. This is in
stark contrast to widespread convective warm sector
showers/thunderstorms to develop and spread across the eastern
half of the country that includes a threat for severe weather with
a Mid-South focus Tuesday as per the Storm Prediction Center
(SPC). Upper ridging over the Gulf Coast should build northward
over the eastern U.S. and support anomalous warmth ahead of the
storm's associated cold front. This pattern may lead to the
stalling of the trailing front into later next week across the
U.S. southern tier. Frontal wave enhancements with the ejection of
southern stream upper energies may focus convergence/convection
and potential training/flash flooding issues, especially with the
front aligned with the upper flow across the moist and unstable
lower Mississippi Valley in the favorable right entrance region of
the upper jet. Accordingly, the experiental WPC medium range
Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO) plans to introduce a "Slight
Risk" threat area by next midweek.

...Model Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Confidence remains above normal for the main weather threats next
week. Forecast clustering is best Tuesday-Thursday with the 18 UTC
GFS and 12 UTC ECMWF/UKMET and a composite blend seems to provide
a good forecast basis that is well supported by ensembles.
Forecast spread slowly increases heading into next weekend,
particularly with the placement and strength of reinforcing trough
energies chaotically into/out from the West. This lends a gradual
transition to a preference for the more run to run consistent
GEFS/ECENS ensemble means along with the 01 UTC National Blend of
Models (NBM). WPC product continuity is well maintained in this
manner and the latest 00 UTC models and ensembles are in line

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

The big headline is the deepening Plains low that tracks from the
central Plains through the Upper Midwest Tuesday/Wednesday.
Probabilities for heavy snow have steadily increased from the
north-central Plains through the northern Plains and Upper
Midwest. This storm will also produce strong winds so blizzard
conditions are likely. Other areas farther east may see brisk to
strong winds even if to a less extreme degree. There is also
another substantial threat of strong to severe storms in the
expansive warm sector, with the Storm Prediction Center
highlighting and area over the Mid-South on Tuesday. Numerous
showers and thunderstorms are likely from the Gulf Coast to the
Midwest Tuesday, continuing next week over the South as
reinforcing southern stream trough energies suggest a continued
advection of copious Gulf moisture and instability, especially
with a wavy/stalling front.

A pronounced temperature contrast will persists across the nation
early-mid week with well below average readings spreading across
much of the western U.S. and central/northern Plains, and well
above average temperatures expanding from the southern Plains/Gulf
Coast through much of the eastern U.S. Tuesday-Wednesday look to
be the coldest days versus normal over the West/Plains with some
areas seeing highs as much as 20-30F below normal. The reverse
will hold true over the southern Plains early in the week and
farther eastward thereafter, with highs generally 10-20F above
normal and lows 15-25F above normal. Daily records mainly for cold
highs will be possible over the West during the first half of the
week. Farther east in the warm sector, Tuesday-Thursday will offer
the best potential for some daily records, with warm lows tending
to be more numerous than record highs until the cold frontal


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation, experimental excessive rainfall
outlook, winter weather outlook probabilities and heat indices are