Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
744 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Valid 12Z Wed Jul 03 2024 - 12Z Sun Jul 07 2024

...Overview and Guidance Evaluation/Preferences...

The blocky pattern overall is handled fairly well through the
extend period. The CMC initially trended faster than the rest of
the cluster with the upper low crossing the Gulf of Alaska toward
the Southeast Panhandle however the ECWMF caught up while the GFS
lagged about half a day behind during the mid and later periods.
In general, a combination of the UKMET,CMC, GFS and ECWMF made a
good starting point for this WPC forecast, with the heaviest
weighting on the ECWMF. The UKMET was dropped after after Day 5
and the use of the EC ensemble means and GEFS means were added for
the mid and later periods. This slight change up from the past few
forecasts still provided a solution close to continuity.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Much of the Aleutians and the Southeast will have mostly light or
no precipitation through much of the extended period. Chances for
rain/thunderstorms will steadily increase in coverage across the
western/northwest part of the state before spreading across the
Interior later in the week and through the upcoming weekend. An
increase in wind speeds and gusts across northern parts of the
state could aggravate the spread of the numerous wildfires that
are scattered across the Interior. The increase in rain potential
however will help reduce and contain the wildfires while providing
beneficial moisture to the region.

Ridging across mainland Alaska will maintain warm to hot
temperatures. Daily highs are expected to rise into the 80 to 90F
range for the most part across the eastern interior sections with
mostly 60s and 70s expected across lower elevations of
south-central Alaska, 50s and 60s in most coastal areas, 50s and
40s across the North Slope, and mid to upper 40s in the Aleutians.
 Higher elevations in the terrain across south-central and
southeast Alaska should fall below freezing overnight.  The North
Slope will cool down closer to normal temperatures by Sunday as a
surface high pressure system gradually sliding from west to east
off the northern coastline of Alaska funnels colder air into the
area from the Arctic Ocean. 

Campbell


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html