NCEP Synergy Meeting
Highlights: October 25, 2010
This meeting was led by David
Novak (HPC) and attended by Geoff DiMego (EMC); John Ward (EMC); Eric Rogers
(EMC); Chad Carry (EMC); Vera Gerald; Mary Hart (EMC); Becky Cosgrove (NCO); Kathy
Gilbert (MDL); Todd Kimberlain (NHC); Steve Silberberg (AWC); Jason Levit
(AWC); Steve Weiss (SPC); Andy Dean (SPC); Joe Sienkiewicz (OPC); Bill Ward
(PR); Bernard Meisner (SR); Jeff Waldstreicher (ER), and Brian Miretzky (ER); Ken
Smith (AFWA)
1. NCO (Becky
Cosgrove)
Multi-Grid
Hurricane Wave Model.
Implementation is scheduled for November 2. The delivery time of the existing products will be delayed by approximately 30 minutes due to the significant increase in model resolution. (http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin10-44wave_modelaab.htm)
NAEFS-AK
The NCO parallel for downscaling NAEFS sensible weather elements for Alaska has begun, for a planned implementation of November 30th. (http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin10-50naefs.htm)
Hawaii
Gridded MOS
Schedule implementation of the 2.5 km Gridded MOS is set for November 9th. (http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin10-27gmos_aaa.txt)
BUFR
Update
Software
upgrades will result in format changes to NCEP BUFR products. In particular:
1.
The identification section of each BUFR message will indicate the use of
version 13 of the WMO Master Table. NCEP BUFR products currently use version
12.
2.
An additional empty (zero subset) BUFR message will now be included within all
files that contain BUFR table messages. These empty messages are
recognizable as having a data category value of 11 within the identification
section of the message.
The new BUFR format files can be ingested AWIPS.
More details available in the TIN. (http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin10-48bufraaa.htm)
Air
Quality
Expansion of
the operational ozone prediction products to add maximum 1 hour average and
maximum 8 hour average ozone for the first day of prediction for CONUS is expected
December 21st. More details available in the TIN (http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin10-49ozone.htm)
NAEFS
FNMOC's
Global Ensemble is scheduled to be added to the NAEFS system January 11, 2011. This
will increase the number of members to 63. Additional bias-corrected elements
(all upper level) will be added to NAEFS. An additional 28 elements will be
added from the CMC ensemble. More details available in the TIN (http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin10-50naefs.htm).
For the
latest schedule updates see: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/changes/
2. NOTES FROM EMC
2a.
Global Climate and Weather Modeling Branch (GCWMB) (John
Ward)
Climate
Forecast System v2.0
A
major upgrade to the Climate Forecast System (CFS v2.0) is expected January 18th,
2011. The upgrade includes resolution changes, assimilation changes,
atmospheric and ocean model changes, addition of sea-ice and land modeling,
coupling, and other significant changes.
GFS
The
major upgrade to the GFS in August 2010 introduced three biases:
-2
m temp warm bias
-cold
bias in the stratosphere
-low
wind bias
Corrective
changes are expected to be implemented in late February 2011.
A
resolution increase, use of a semi-lagrangian model formulation, and possible
physics improvements are expected in FY12.
GSI
Updates
to the datatypes are expected to be made in February 2011.
GEFS
Resolution
improvements and physics changes are expected in the summer 2011 timeframe.
Resolution increases from T190L28 to T254L42. The physics will be updated to be
consistent with the current operational GFS.
2b.
Mesoscale Modeling Branch (MMB) (Geoff DiMego)
High
Resolution Window Runs
A
major upgrade to the High Resolution Window Runs is planned for March
2011. Plans include upgrading the WRF
code version (from v2.2 to v3.2) and adding a twice-per-day (00z & 12z) run
to cover
The upcoming
Q3FY2011 major implementation will transition the WRF-based NMM to a NEMS-based
NMM-B. NEMS = NOAA Environmental
Modeling System which is, in turn, based on the basic principles of ESMF (Earth
System Modeling Framework). NMMB =
Nonhydrostatic Multiscale Model on a B-Grid where multiscale comes from the
fact the NMMB can be run globally or regionally and, with telescoping nests, it
can run with synoptic scale, mesoscale to stormscale grid-spacing. This
transition allows the long-awaited establishment of multiple internal nests: 4
km over CONUS, 6 km over
SREF
A major upgrade to
SREF is planned now for FY11Q4 which eliminates the members based on the legacy
Eta and RSM models and adds members based on the NEMS-NMMB. Membership will remain at 21 by having 7
members generated each by NMMB, WRF-ARW and WRF-NMM. This upgrade would also
increase resolution from 32-25km to 22-25 km, add a BUFR output, and may
transition to an ensemble perturbation approach. The WRF Development
Testbed Center (DTC) is helping evaluate different initial perturbation
possibilities. The Eta and RSM models will be discontinued, pending all
dependencies on Eta and RSM models can be removed.
HREF
Initial
data from the hybrid ensemble approach
of Jun (2004) (http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/SREF/hybrid_50thNWP.pdf)
applied to the high-res window runs is available to NCEP Service Centers. This
involves adding the forecast perturbations from the 21 SREF members to the
Hi-res window NMM and ARW forecasts.
Rapid
Refresh
MMB
is working with GSD on implementation details of the Rapid Refresh. The Rapid
Refresh will replace the RUC and remain an hourly updated system with 13 km
resolution run to 18 hours. The prediction model will change from RUC to
WRF-ARW, the analysis will change from RUC/3DVAR to NCEP’s GSI (same as is used
in GFS/GDAS and NAM/NDAS) and the domain will increase to cover most of
Post
Processing
SPC
and EMC collaborating to provide CAPE and CIN calculations using virtual
temperature. These will be new elements, in addition to the historical CAPE and
CIN calculations using the sensible temperature.
2c.
Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch (Vera Gerald)
See
previous item on multi-grid hurricane wave model.
3. FEEDBACK FROM MDL/OPERATIONAL
CENTERS/REGIONS
3a.
MDL (Kathy Gilbert)
Exploring using the new Vaisala GLD-360 lightning
data to generate thunderstorm MOS guidance for the OCONUS.
Working with HPC and NCO to test prototype Day 8-10
MOS guidance.
3b.
EMC
– The annual NCEP Model Suite Review will be held Dec 7-9 at the WWB. As in the
past, activities for the regions are expected the morning of the 9th.
4. Given the upcoming NCEP Model Suite Review December 7-9, the next scheduled Synergy Meeting will be deferred until Monday, January 31, 2011.