NCEP Synergy Meeting Highlights: September 27, 2010
This meeting was led by David Novak (HPC) and attended by Geoff DiMego (EMC); John Ward (EMC); Bill Lapenta (EMC); Chad Carry (EMC); Mary Hart (EMC); Becky Cosgrove (NCO); Kathy Gilbert (MDL); Bill Bua (UCAR/COMET); Stephen Jascourt (UCAR/COMET); Mike Brennan (NHC); Richard Pasch (NHC); Keith Brill (HPC); Joe Sienkiewicz (OPC); Bill Ward (PR); Pete Browning (CR); Bernard Meisner (SR); Jeff Waldstreicher (ER), and Brian Miretzky (ER);
1. NCO (Chris Caruso Magee)
2.5 km RTMA CONUS implemented September 28. This RTMA is run separate from the 5 km RTMA.
RTMA-Guam and the grid shift in the RTMA-Hawaii were implemented September 29.
Hurricane Wave Model.
The NCO parallel evaluation is underway.
The NCO parallel for downscaling NAEFS sensible weather elements for
is scheduled to begin Oct 5, for a planned implementation of November 30th. Alaska
A NCO parallel for Gridded LAMP ceiling and visibility products started September 28.
Changes to the Air Quality Model were successfully implemented into production on Sep. 21. The CONUS AQM is still running in both prod (old chemistry) and parallel (new chemistry). No changes were planned or implemented for the AQM CONUS.
For the latest schedule updates see: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/changes/
2. NOTES FROM EMC
2a. Global Climate and Weather Modeling Branch (GCWMB) (John Ward)
Climate Forecast System v2.0
A major upgrade to the Climate Forecast System (CFS v2.0) is expected January 18th, 2011. The upgrade includes resolution changes, assimilation changes, atmospheric and ocean model changes, addition of sea-ice and land modeling, coupling, and other significant changes.
Addition of the FNMOC ensemble is scheduled for January 11th, 2011.
Updates to the datatypes are expected to be made in February 2011.
Upgrade scheduled for May 2011.
Resolution improvements and physics changes are expected in the June 2011 timeframe. Resolution increases from T190L28 to T254L42. The physics will be updated to be consistent with the current operational GFS.
A resolution increase and possible physics improvements are expected in FY12.
2b. Mesoscale Modeling Branch (MMB) (Geoff DiMego)
In addition to the RTMA implementations noted in section 1, a 6th RTMA domain covering the Canadian regions of the NWRFC domain is expected to be added in FY11. This implementation will update/unify the 2DVAR analysis code used in all 6 regions, add the use of hurricane model winds as first-guess for RTMA and update the QC station lists submitted by/gathered from the regions.
High Resolution Window Runs
major upgrade to the High Resolution Window Runs is planned for March
2011. Plans include upgrading the WRF
code version (from v2.2 to v3.2) and adding a twice-per-day (00z & 12z) run
Q3FY2011 major implementation will transition the WRF-based NMM to a NEMS-based
NMM-B. NEMS = NOAA Environmental
Modeling System which is, in turn, based on the basic principles of ESMF (Earth
System Modeling Framework). NMMB =
Nonhydrostatic Multiscale Model on a B-Grid where multiscale comes from the
fact the NMMB can be run globally or regionally and, with telescoping nests, it
can run with synoptic scale, mesoscale to stormscale grid-spacing. This
transition allows the long-awaited establishment of multiple internal nests: 4
km over CONUS, 6 km over
A major upgrade to SREF is planned now for FY11Q4 which eliminates the members based on the legacy Eta and RSM models and adds members based on the NEMS-NMMB. Membership will remain at 21 by having 7 members generated each by NMMB, WRF-ARW and WRF-NMM. This upgrade would also increase resolution from 32-25km to 22-25 km, add a BUFR output, and may transition to an ensemble perturbation approach. The WRF Development Testbed Center (DTC) is helping evaluate different initial perturbation possibilities. The Eta and RSM models will be discontinued, pending all dependencies on Eta and RSM models can be removed.
Also exploring the hybrid ensemble approach of Jun (2004) (http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/SREF/hybrid_50thNWP.pdf) applied to the high-res window runs. This involves adding the forecast perturbations from the 21 SREF members to the Hi-res window NMM and ARW forecasts.
MMB is working on VSREF (http://ams.confex.com/ams/90annual/techprogram/paper_162463.htm).
It is a time-lagged, weighted ensemble of
is working with GSD on implementation details of the Rapid Refresh. The Rapid
Refresh will replace the RUC and remain an hourly updated system with 13 km
resolution run to 18 hours. The prediction model will change from RUC to
WRF-ARW, the analysis will change from RUC/3DVAR to NCEP’s GSI (same as is used
in GFS/GDAS and NAM/NDAS) and the domain will increase to cover most of
2c. Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch (No report)
3. FEEDBACK FROM MDL/OPERATIONAL CENTERS/REGIONS
3a. MDL (Kathy Gilbert)
-Fiscal year implementations have been submitted to NCO.
EMC – The annual NCEP Model Suite Review will be held Dec 7-9 at the WWB.
HPC – Asked NCO for operational GEMPAK conversion for the Climatology-Calibrated Precipitation Analysis (CCPA).
ER – Working on getting the Gridded LAMP ceiling and visibility products in AWIPS.
4. The next Synergy Meeting will be held at 2:30 pm EDT on Monday, October 25, 2010 in room 209, with remote teleconferencing capability.