NCEP Synergy Meeting Highlights: August
31, 2009
This meeting was led by David Novak
(HPC) and attended by Dan Starosta (NCO), Joe Carr (NCO); Rebecca Cosgrove
(NCO); Bradley Mabe (NCO); John Ward (EMC); Geoff Dimego (EMC); Yuejian Zhu
(EMC); Vera Gerald (EMC); Mary Hart (EMC); Chad Cary (EMC); Stephen Jascourt
(UCAR/COMET); Steve Silberberg (AWC); Russ Schneider (SPC); Steve Weiss (SPC);
Jason Levit (SPC); Mike Brennan (TPC); Richard Knabb (CPHC); Ed Danaher (HPC); Keith
Brill (HPC); Kathy Gilbert (MDL); Dave Myrick (WR); Don Moore (AR); and Bernard Meisner (SR).
1. NCO (Dan
Starosta)
Production
moved to Stratus (the new computer) August 12. This signifies completion of the
new computer migration.
Implementations
are planned to occur in the following order:
1) Short-Range Ensemble Forecast system (SREF)
2) Real-Time Ocean Forecast System (RTOFS)
3) Hurricane WRF (HWRF)
4) Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)
5) Global Forecast System (GFS)
A
shortened 2 week parallel test is expected for the SREF, with EMC validation of
the results. 30 day NCO parallel tests are expected to occur in association
with the RTOFs and HWRF implementations. Parallels are not expected to begin
until mid September. Technical Implementation Notices (TINs) are expected to be
developed / distributed shortly.
TPC
asked whether adding a 5th slot for hurricane runs was possible with
the new computer. NCO and EMC confirmed that 5 systems can be run simultaneously
with the new computer, and will coordinate with TPC.
Based
on previously submitted requirements, NCO has been exploring an expansion of
the ECMWF elements provided to NCEP centers (1 degree resolution). NCO hopes to
turn on the additional ECMWF deterministic, ensemble, and wave data in late
September. This data would be available to both local and remote NCEP Centers.
2. NOTES FROM EMC
2a.
Global Climate and Weather Modeling Branch (GCWMB) (John Ward)
On
August 25 the GFS BUFR sounding output was fixed to correct a problem with
temperature consistency between the BUFR soundings and the GFS 40 km grids.
The
next GFS implementation (#5 above) will include both model and data
assimilation (GSI) changes. The model changes include merging the GFS and GDAS
post processing, while the assimilation changes would include various new data
types, including new satellite data. A TIN is in progress for a planned
implementation of December 8, 2009.
Changes
to the shallow and deep convection parameterizations in the GFS have been
tested at T126 resolution and recently at T382 resolution. For both resolutions
there is a dramatic reduction in grid point storms (colloquially known as
“precip bombs” or “grid-scale feedback”), which have plagued the GFS. There is
also marked improvement in nearly all the standard verification statistics. Minor
issues will continue to be addressed in the T382 GFS version. The change would
be scheduled for March 2010.
An
additional GFS implementation is planned for Q3 2010. This implementation
increases the GFS resolution (to T574 64L).
A
Climate Forecast System (CFS) upgrade is expected Q4 2010.
2b.
Global Ensemble Prediction System (John Ward)
The
next GEFS upgrade (see above) has been temporarily delayed due to a few issues
in the Request For Change (RFCs), but should be restarted soon. The
implementation increases member resolution from T126 to T190, adds a stochastic
perturbation scheme, and uses 8th order horizontal diffusion for all
resolutions. Tests show improved forecast skill and reliability. Additionally,
several new variables will be included in the “pgrba” files, including 10, 50,
and 100 mb level data, surface and top of atmosphere flux data, and soil data,
and CIN.
2c.
Mesoscale Modeling Branch (MMB)(Geoff Dimego)
SREF
The
SREF implementation is imminent (see above, also: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/notification/tin08-91aaa_sref_upgrade.txt).
A new TIN will be issued since the SREF upgrade will also include a ceiling
product fix for WRF ARW members, implementation of a standardized calculation
of the PBL height, and additional simulated reflectivity and echo tops products
(each member only – no means/spread).
An
additional SREF implementation is expected late in FY2010 to add downscaled and
bias-corrected (based on the RTMA – similar to NAEFS) sensible weather element
products.
RUC
The
RUC forecast projection is expected to be extended from 12 h to 18 h in Q1 of
FY10.
RTMA
FY10
plans for the RTMA include:
-redefined
grid for Hawwaii
-adding
-establishing
a parallel 2.5 km CONUS version.
The
next large implementation will be transitioning the WRF-NMM to the NMM-B and
embedding within the National Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) framework
sometime in FY2011. This transition allows the establishment of 4 km nests over
the CONUS, a 6 km nest over
High
Resolution Window Runs
FY10
plans include upgrading the WRF code version and adding a nest to cover
Other
EMC
is investigating running HWRF runs for the CPHC.
2d.
Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch
The
Atlantic RTOFS implementation is imminent (see above section 1). This
implementation improves the ocean model and assimilation of new satellite data,
and is a substantial improvement over the current RTOFS.
Additional
MMAB planned implementations include:
Global Wave Model (Wavewatch III): extension of domain into
Hurricane Wave Model: Add multigrid capability, improving resolution along
the coast from ~25 km à
~7 km.
HYCOM: Global model resolution increased to 1/12th
degree.
No
implementation dates have been set at this point for these three improvements.
3. FEEDBACK FROM MDL/OPERATIONAL
CENTERS/REGIONS
3a.
MDL
Nothing to report
3b.
Nothing
to report.
4. The next Synergy Meeting will be
held at 2:30 pm EDT on Monday, September 28, 2009 in room 209, with remote
teleconferencing capability.