NCEP Modeling Synergy Meeting Highlights: August 14, 2006

This meeting was led by Peter Manousos and attended by Mark Iredell, Geoff Dimego, Brent Gordon, Jim Hoke, Dave Plummer, Bill Bua, Mary Hart, Ed Danaher, Joe Sienkiewicz, and Regina Nichols. Additionally, AWC’s Steven Silberburg and UCAR/COMET’s Stephen Jascourt attended by remote conference.

1. CCS

Brent Gordon reported the moratorium will commence on August 23^rd. The new system is being tested by IBM and will be handed over to NCO that same week

2. NOTES FROM EMC

2a. Global Modeling Branch:

Mark Iredell reported that the code for a minor implementation parallel will implemented pending NCEP OD approval Aug 22. Changes to GFS will include changes to ozone physics, glacial ice physics, and Antarctic land/ice changes. The change will NOT include a transition to a new coordinate system.

2b. Mesoscale Modeling Branch (MMB):

Geoff Dimego reported a crisis change will be implemented to the NAM Aug 15 to address a number of issues. Details can be found at http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/jifmemo/ and include an increase in horizontal and vertical diffusion, decrease in surface roughness over complex terrain (results in stronger 10-meter winds where a low bias existed), use of observed surface temperatures in the GSI 3d-var (though influence will be primarily in the lowest layer of the model), and better SST sources for Great Salt Lake and Salton Sea. The changes appear to mitigate spurious QPF bombs in the west and helps with the boundary layer evolution and surface temperatures, dewpoints and winds in the vicinity of water in the western states. Geoff also stated the RTMA will remain in parallel production until after the moratorium primarily to allow more time to address the timeliness and reliability issues of using a non-operational source for mesonet data.

2c. Global Ensemble Prediction System:

Nothing new reported due to the impending moratorium. An OSIP team was formed to look into issues of ensemble distribution to AWIPS, which presently gets global ensemble data only to 84 hours, only from 10 of the now-14 members and no statistical data (mean/spread, probability), and does not get any of the new bias-corrected output. It may take several years for any changes to eventually reach deployment in a future AWIPS build.

2d. Short Range Ensemble Prediction System:

Nothing new reported due to the impending moratorium.

2e. Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch (MMAB):

Regina Nichols stated the Great Lakes WaveWatch3 model will be implemented Aug 22. However, it will not be getting into AWIPS until OB9 (tentatively late 2008).

3. The next meeting will be held Monday October 30 at noon in EMC Rm 209 with remote conference capability.