NCEP Synergy Meeting Highlights: August 08, 2012

This meeting was led by LT Stephen Barry (EMC) and attended by Dave Novak and Keith Brill (HPC); Bill Bua (UCAR/COMET); Chris Caruso-Magee and Becky Cosgrove (NCO); Geoff DiMego, Shrinivas Moorthi, Hendrik Tolman, Eric Rogers, Yuejian Zhu and Mary Hart (EMC); Mark Antolik (MDL); Wallace Hogsett (NHC), Steve Silberberg (AWC); Andy Dean and Isreal Jirak (SPC); Carven Scott (AR); Jeff Waldstreicher and Brian Miretzky (ER); Bernard Meisner (SR); John Kelley and Aiyan Zang (NOS); Natalia Donoho (NESDIS).

1. NOTES FROM NCO (Chris Caruso-Magee)

Implementations

A Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) parallel evaluation period began on 13 June 2012. The implementation briefing to Dr. Uccellini will be held on 09 August 2012 in NCWCP (the new building). The implementation is scheduled for 21 August 2012 in conjunction with a supercomputer production switch.

The 30-day parallel for the Extratropical Storm and Tide Operational Forecast System (ESTOFS) implementation is scheduled to end on 12 August 2012. The implementation briefing to Dr. Uccellini is scheduled for 11 September 2012 and the implementation is scheduled to occur on 18 September 2012. NCO (Chris Caruso-Magee) requests reviews of the coastal storm surge issue discussed in the previous synergy meeting prior to the scheduled date for the implementation briefing.

The 30-day parallel for the Global Aerosol System NEMS-GFS Aerosol Compotent (NGAC) concluded on 02 August 2012. The briefing of this implementation to Dr. Uccellini will be held on 29 August 2012. This model is scheduled for implementation on 11 September 2012. EMC (Sarah Lu) is in need of evaluations from the field on the parallel run.

NCO is ready to progress to the WCOSS (new supercomputer) transition at this time. The moratorium for this transition will begin as soon as access is granted to the “Tide” supercomputer which is located in Reston, Virginia. Access to this system is expected to occur at the end of August 2012. After this date the only implementations that will occur will be to enact repairs that are necessary in production.

2. NOTES FROM EMC

2a. Global Climate and Weather Modeling Branch (GCWMB) (Shrinivas Moorthi)

GFS Hybrid

Problems have been observed in operational runs with the 2-meter temperatures. A parallel is running in real-time and producing positive results. Major improvement has been seen in the tread scores in this parallel run. At this time it is unknown if this upgrade will be implemented prior to supercomputer moratorium.

Testing has begun for next GFS implementation that is scheduled for a year and an half from now, after the new supercomputer is in place. This next upgrade will either use the T878 Eulerian or T1148 Semi-Langrangian.

2b. Mesoscale Modeling Branch (MMB) (Geoff DiMego)

SREF

The Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) is scheduled for implementation on 21 August 2012.

The next upgrade package for the SREF will be implemented after the completion of the supercomputer moratorium.

RTMA

The Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) will not be implemented until after the moratorium for the supercomputer has completed. Due to this both the old and new RTMA models will have to be transitioned to WCOSS.

NAM

Currently running parallel that is not nest, only parent. Additional NAM development work is occurring on the research and development supercomputer.

Testing is ongoing for the next NAM implementation that will be placed on the new supercomputer.

MMB’s WCOSS transition work has started. WCOSS has increased power, increased capability and the system runs faster than the current supercomputer. This will allow for an increase in high resolution window runs on the new supercomputer.

2c. Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch (MMAB) (Hendrik Tolman)

Sea Ice Concentration Analysis

The RTOFS Episodic Tracer for the West Pacific was implemented on 24 July 2012. This implementation did not require a 30-day parallel.

MMAB is looking at the capability of coastal centers to run their own wave models. They are currently working with NHC to generate a global wave model for their own use.

The implementation of a high resolution coastal wave model is 2-3 years away.

The option of replacing NCOM with HYCOM is being explored. The Global HYCOM model is running satisfactorily and they are happy with wave physics upgrade. Canada has adopted this wave code and is working on an ensemble model with their center. Discussion for the development of joint U.S. and Canadian ensemble for Great Lakes is occurring.

3. NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE (NOS, Aiyun Zang)

The 30-day parallel evaluation period for the nest for the Columbia River Estuary Operational Forecast System (CREOFS) has not begun and start date is TBD.

Waiting for the Bonneville Power Authority to send the discharge forecast data for the Bonneville Dam. The start of this parallel is TBD.

NOS is currently working on the WCOSS transition and testing is occurring on a research and development system at this time.

4. FEEDBACK FROM MDL/OPERATIONAL CENTERS/REGIONS

4a. MDL (Mark Antolik)

Upgrade to station names in LAMP will occur in conjunction with the SREF upgrade. Everything looks good with this upgrade.

Everything is satisfactory with the Probabilistic Hurricane Surge model.

Upgrade to LAMP was implemented 17 July 2012.

2 month parallel shows MOS improvement in temperature, dewpoint and POPs in central U.S.

4b. NCEP Centers and NWS Regions

Aviation Weather Center (AWC, Steve Silberberg): No report.

Ocean Prediction Center (OPC): No attendee.

National Hurricane Center (NHC, Wallace Hogsett): Discussion with NCO reps regarding the current problem with the GFDL. A fix will be applied to address this issue in tomorrow’s run.

Storm Prediction Center (SPC, Andy Dean): Asked if current GFS parallel runs were in real-time and if they could have access to this data. EMC (Shrinivas Moorthi) said this data is available on the supercomputer and he will provide the access information for this data.

Hydrological Prediction Center (HPC, Keith Brill): No report.

Southern Region (Bernard Meisner): Congratulations on the move to NCWCP!

Eastern Region (Jeff Waldstreicher): No report.

5. NESDIS (Natalia Donoho): No report.

6. The next Synergy Meeting will be held at 1:00 pm EDT on Monday, 17 September 2012 in NCWCP conference room 2155, with remote teleconferencing capability.