NCEP Synergy Meeting Highlights: June 27, 2011

This meeting was led by David Novak (HPC), and attended by Becky Cosgrove (NCO), John Ward(EMC), Geoff DiMego(EMC), Eric Rogers(EMC), Bob Grumbine (EMC), Jun Du (EMC), Mary Hart (EMC); Bill Bua (UCAR/COMET), Steve Silberberg (AWC); Andy Dean (SPC); Keith Brill (HPC), Andy Edman (WR), Chris Smallcomb (WR), Dave Radell (ER), Brian Miretzky (ER), Bernard Meisner (SR), Melissa Kreller (SR), John Kelly (NOS), and Frank Aikman (NOS)

1. NCO (Becky Cosgrove)

New NAM

The parallel NAM evaluation has been restarted due to supercomputer issues, and will end July 21. The implementation is currently scheduled for August 9, 2011.

Several substaintial changes are being made, and are documented at:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin11-16nam_changes.htm

See also below.

CFS

The Climate Data Assimilation System (CDAS) will be transitioning from a lat/lon grid to a guassian grid on July 5^th. See:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin11-14cfs_grids.htm

Hurricane Wave and Wave Watch 3

A spectral increase is expected soon, but has not yet been scheduled.

Model Analysis and Guidance Webpage

Enhancement to the webpage (http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller)

will be made July 14 and the former page will be decommissioned August 30.

See: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin11-06aaamaf_removal.txt

SBN Upgrade

The Satellite Broadcast Network has been expanded. This expansion allows for implementation of:

-Expanded RUC (August 9): Hourly 13 km RUC out to 18 h (currently 12 h). See: http://www.weather.gov/os/notification/tin11-19ruc.htm

-HiRes Window (August 16): Select fields available from ARW and NMM cores, east, west, Alaska, and Puerto Rico domains. See:

http://www.weather.gov/os/notification/tin11-21hires.htm

-NAM Nest (Sept/Oct): 2.5 km resolution sensible weather elements to 60 hours

NOMADS

Requests for NOMADS enhancements should be provided to Becky Cosgrove for consideration in the next quarterly upgrade.

For the latest schedule updates see: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/changes/

2. NOTES FROM EMC

2a. Global Climate and Weather Modeling Branch (GCWMB) (John Ward)

Data Assimilation

The next major upgrade to the GFS will include a new hybrid Ensemble Kalman Filter/GSI assimilation (DA) system, perhaps with ocean coupling to unify the DA system with the Global CFS. The implementation is currently planned for Q3 of FY12. A briefing to the synergy group on the hybrid system is planned for the fall.

Output Resolution

Consideration is being given to providing 0.25 degree resolution output data from the GFS.

GoCart Dust

The GoCart Dust model is planned to be implemented FY12Q2. The dust model uses a coarser resolution version of the GFS.

2b. Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEFS)

The GEFS increase in resolution is planned now for either the 4^th quarter of FY2011 or the 1^st quarter of FY2012. The implementation is at risk of being delayed due to limited computing resources. The resolution is expected to increase from T190 to T254. Raw means and bias-corrected products will be delayed ~20 minutes, while raw probabilities will be available ~5 minutes earlier.

2c. Mesoscale Modeling Branch (MMB) (Geoff DiMego)

NAM

The NMM-B implementation is scheduled for 9 August 2011. Full details of the substaintial changes are provided in the TIN:

The changes can be considered as three aspects:

-Change in model core. NMM-B is non-hydrostatic and multiscale (from global to mesoscales), with computations on the Arakawa B (changed from E) grid, and is in a NOAA Environmental Model System (NEMS) environment.

-Nesting. There will be 4-km nests over the CONUS, a 6-km nest over Alaska, and 3-km nests for Puerto Rico and Hawaii. These data are distributed via ftp and through the Downscaled NWP Guidance (DNG) slot on the SBN.

-On-demand Fire Weather run: 1 km, relocatable. Requests coordinated through NCEP SDM.

More information and results can be found here (http://www2.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/impDoc.html) under "Implementation Briefing" in last column of the NAM 3.0 row; and under the EMC home page (http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/) under "NAM Upgrade" on the right, click "Description of Changes".

Rapid Refresh (RR) Replacement of RUC

Running reliability. Waiting for scheduling.

SREF

A significant upgrade of the SREF is planned for FY12Q1. The upgrade include resolution improvements (from 32 km to ~22 km), elimination of Eta and RSM, addition of the NMMB, and a diverse initial condition perturbation strategy using a hybrid Breeding and Ensemble Transform method, as well as analyses from GDAS, NDAS, and Rapid Refresh. Additional post-processing enhancements are also expected. The scope of the project is at risk due to limited computing resources. Resolution improvements may need to be sacrificed.

RTMA

An implementation is ready and awaiting scheduling. The implementation includes:

-expanded domain to cover the Canadian portion of the NWRFC area

-~3 km resolution for mainland Alaska and 1.5 km for Juneau area

2d. Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch (MMAB) (Bob Grumbine)

Global Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM)

parallel has been running successfully. Scheduling issue on the operational system with possibly expanded GEFS being discussed in EMC.

Multi-grid global and hurricane wave model

Spectral output resolution increase is on is still on schedule for FY12Q1. The related TIN can be found at:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin11-10wave.htm

Real Time Global Sea Surface Temperature -- RTGSST

High resolution improvements, using AMSRE and NOAA-19, will be implemented imminently by NCO (July).

FNMOC

Wave ensemble implementation proceeding and will be implemented FY11Q4.

3. NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE (NOS, Frank Aikman and John Kelley)

The Northern Gulf of Mexico Operational Forecast System (NGOFS) and the Columbia River & Estuary Operational Forecast System (CREOFS) are both scheduled for operational implementation In the second quarter of FY2012 (March).

Per NOS Data Mining List, NCO recently modified USGS observation decoder in order to process near-real-time data from USGS stations which have station IDs longer than the typical 8 characters. Many of these USGS stations measure water conductivity, water temperature, and/or salinity, The observations are being posted to /dcomdev for NOS to evaluate. Once NOS gives OK, then NCO will schedule it for implementation to support NGOFS and CREOFS.

4. FEEDBACK FROM MDL/OPERATIONAL CENTERS/REGIONS

4a. MDL (Kathy Gilbert)

Gridded LAMP: Improvements expected to be implemented in September, 2011

NAM MOS: Testing with the ongoing parallel 12 km NAM shows a cooler and drier bias. MDL is refreshing the correlations for the NAM MOS.

GFS MOS: The GFS bug fix implementation negatively impacted MOS winds in high elevations. The winds are now too strong. MDL is working on a remedy.

4b. NCEP Centers and NWS Regions

HPC – NAWIPS workstations have difficult time plotting data from the 4 km NAM CONUS nest (full domain). Will filter select fields to ~10 km to make usable.

5. The next Synergy Meeting will be held at 2:30 pm EDT on Monday, July 25, 2011 in room 209, with remote teleconferencing capability.