EMC Synergy Meeting Highlights June 07 2004

This meeting was led by Peter Manousos and was attended by Geoff Dimego, Jim Hoke, Hua Lu Pan, Larry Burroughs, John Ward, Dave Michaud, Dave Plummer, Steve Jascourt, Joe Sienciewicz, Zoltan Toth, and Bill Bua.

1. CCS

John Ward and Dave Michaud reported that the new system is targeted to be installed by the end of July with the most probable date of operational implementation in early January. Also the AVN to GFS renaming transition will begin with the installation of this new system. All AVN mnemonics will cease to exist on the upgraded system.

2. Notes from EMC

a. Global Modeling Group: Hua Lu Pan reported that development continues on Grid-scale Statistical Interpolation (GSI) Data Assimilation System (details in last month=s highlights). The Climate Forecast System, including a new coupled atmosphere-ocean model, will replace the Seasonal Forecast Model by September of this year. Otherwise, no major modifications to the GFS are intended prior to the operational implementation of the new CCS.

b. Mesoscale Modeling Group: Geoff Dimego reported that the new Eta bundle is running in parallel and includes an upgrade to the land surface package, precip assimilation scheme, cloud microphysics package, incorporation of the GFS radiation transfer model, and 3DVar upgrade to include Level 2.5 radar data. There is still the possibility that using surface temperature observations over land with a limited vertical influence will be included in the bundle. The Eta is intended to be transitioned to the NMM WRF, to be called the North American Mesoscale WRF, by September 30, 2005, probably with a 10 km grid spacing. When that happens, Eta MOS will be made from the WRF instead, and AWIPS fields labeled “Eta” will actually contain look-alike products from this configuration of WRF until AWIPS OB6 is released, which will update the name and possibly the grid resolution in AWIPS. In the meantime, as discussed in previous synergy meeting highlight notes, the 8km Hi-Res window will be replaced by a WRF ensemble (NMM running with the NCEP dynamic core and the NCAR dynamic core) by September 30, 2004. The WRF Ensemble will start with two members on the present computer and increase to six members after the operational implementation of the new CCS.

c. Global Ensemble Prediction System: Zoltan Toth reported that the North American Forecast System will have its initial implementation June 22, 2004. This will feature the sharing of the 16 member Canadian Ensembles (on the order of 50 variables per member) with NCEP - and the same variables from the GFS Ensemble shared with the Canadians. Statistical products will be separate for each ensemble, with PQPF (probabilistic QPF) added in September 2004 and plans for combined Canadian/NCEP products sometime in 2005. Also, a briefing on the North American Ensemble system occurred last week and the NCEP ensemble workshop was held in May. Details of the workshop can be found at http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/e-wshop-2004.html, where a summary of NCEP Service Center recommendations will be added this week.

d. Short Range Ensemble Prediction System: Geoff Dimego reported that the parallel SREF (32km horizontal resolution with physics diversity across 15 members) continues to run and will replace the current operational SREF next month (June 2004). It is intended that the SREF system be run 4 cycles per day after the operational implementation of the CCS.

e. Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch (MMAB): Larry Burroughs reported that the North Atlantic Basin Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) will be implemented in the second quarter of FY 05 with the Global Ocean Model to follow in the fourth quarter of FY 05. The North Atlantic Basin model will have a stretched grid with grid spacing as fine as 4 km near the US coast and will run out to two weeks. The Global Ocean Model will be run at near .5 degree horizontal resolution and is intended to be run out to 6 weeks if suitable driving winds can be obtained, such as from the CFS. SST air temperature and dewpoint are among the outputs to be available. Wave models run off of the GFS ensembles are expected to become available sometime in 2005. Work is about to begin on a new Great Lakes wave model, based on Wave Watch III. Resolution will probably be around 5 km, and there is no timetable yet for that project.

3. Miscellaneous

HPC inquired on behalf of AWC if a NOMADS like system can be invoked by NCEP for data transfer. NCO and the meeting attendees agreed that the data transfer process needs to be evaluated. HPC will raise this issue formally to NCO this month. HPC also inquired on behalf of AWC on the possibility of running the RUC out to 24 hours, every hour. NCO forwarded the name of the proper contact in the NCEP Office of the Director (who was previously tasked to look at this issue) who has information on the feasibility of this proposal. HPC asked NCO about obtaining lightning data to view in NAWIPS. NCO suggested contacting SPC to determine the exact source of lightning data. HPC also inquired to NCO about obtaining the location of EMC’s bias corrected ensemble based QPF. NCO accommodated HPC’s request after the meeting.

4. Next Meeting Monday July 26, 2004 at noon in room 209.