NCEP Synergy Meeting Highlights: June 04, 2012

This meeting was led by LT Stephen Barry (EMC) and attended by Dave Novak (HPC); Bill Bua (UCAR/COMET); Chris Caruso-Magee and Becky Cosgrove (NCO); Jordan Alpert, Eric Rogers, Avichal Mehra, Jun Du and Mary Hart (EMC); Kathy Gilbert (MDL); Richard Pasch (NHC), Steve Silberberg (AWC); Andy Dean and Steve Weiss (SPC); Jeff Waldstreicher (ER); Andy Edman (WR), Bernard Meisner (SR); Bill Ward (PR); Frank Aikman (NOS)

1. NOTES FROM NCO (Chris Caruso-Magee)

Implementations

A Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) parallel evaluation period is scheduled to begin on 13 June 2012. The briefing to Dr. Uccellini will either be held on 16 July 2012 or 23 July 2012 with the implementation planned for 01 August 2012. There will be a delay of one hour in the output from the parallel run. AWC has been informed of this delay and is okay with it. It was requested from HPC (Dave Novak) to schedule the briefing for 23 July 2012 to allow more time for evaluation of the parallel. The TIN for the SREF will include notification that a cycle in the production suite would be skipped in the event catch up time is needed due an emergency production switch with the supercomputers.

The Extratropical Storm and Tide Operational Forecast System (ESTOFS) implementation is scheduled for 12 June 2012. Very recent problems with this upgrade were reported by ER (Jeff Waldstreicher). Negative values in coastal storm surge forecast were just discovered from current weather event affecting the Northeast. ER is recommending delaying this implementation and cancelling the scheduled briefing at this time. This implementation has been delayed and the new date of implementation is TBD.

An upgrade will be applied to the GFS MOS wind guidance on 12 June 2012. This fix is necessary due to the recent Hybrid GFS implementation.

2. NOTES FROM EMC

2a. Global Climate and Weather Modeling Branch (GCWMB) (Jordan Albert)

GFS Hybrid

The output from this recent implementation is being monitored and at this time all output is okay.

Testing has begun for next GFS implementation that is scheduled for a year and an half from now, after the new supercomputer is in place. This next upgrade will either use the T878 Eulerian or T1148 Semi-Langrangian.

2b. Mesoscale Modeling Branch (MMB) (Eric Rogers)

SREF

The Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) will be implemented at the end of July or the beginning of August.

RTMA

The Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) is still waiting for an implementation slot.

NAM

A fix to the wind gust parameter in the NAM was implemented on 30 May 2012.

Testing is ongoing for the next NAM implementation that will be placed on the new supercomputer.

2c. Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch (MMAB) (Avichal Mehra)

Sea Ice Concentration Analysis

The Sea Ice Concentration Analysis upgrade is scheduled for implementation on 19 June 2012. This upgrade does not require a parallel.

The RTOFS Episodic Tracer for the West Pacific has been tested and is waiting for an implementation slot.

3. NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE (NOS, Frank Aikman)

The Extratropical Storm and Tide Operational Forecast System (ESTOFS) was discussed in the report from NCO.

The 30-day parallel evaluation period for the nest for the Columbia River Estuary Operational Forecast System (CREOFS) has been delayed and will likely not start until mid or late June 2012.

Waiting for the Bonneville Power Authority to send the discharge forecast data for the Bonneville Dam. The start of this parallel is pending and will likely start at the end of this month.

4. FEEDBACK FROM MDL/OPERATIONAL CENTERS/REGIONS

4a. MDL (Kathy Gilbert)

No report.

4b. NCEP Centers and NWS Regions

Aviation Weather Center (AWC, Steve Silberberg): No report.

Ocean Prediction Center (OPC): No attendee.

National Hurricane Center (NHC, Richard Pasch): Dr. Rick Knabb has reported as the new director. They are excited that the new and improved HWRF and GFDL have been implemented and are operational for the 2012 hurricane season.

Storm Prediction Center (SPC, Andy Dean and Steve Weiss): No report.

Hydrological Prediction Center (HPC, Dave Novak): Recently detected a cold bias in evening 2-meter temperatures in the analysis produced by the GFS. Temperatures differences from 2-10 degrees have been seen. A fix with the boundary layer is currently being developed by the land surface team at this time to address this bias. MDL will be waiting to review the new data that is produced after this fix is applied.

Western Region (Andy Edman): Voiced appreciation of SPC’s website.

Southern Region (Bernard Meisner): Raised question about thickness values and their impact on GFS MOS temperatures. EMC recently made changes to the GFS post to address this issue. The fix has been applied to the operational code and the problem has been corrected.

Eastern Region (Jeff Waldstreicher): Thanks to Jess Feyen and Frank Aikman (NOS) with help on ESOTFS. Discussion was held on the rescheduling of the briefing for this implementation and what would necessitate the restart of the parallel evaluation period. (See the report from NCO that this implementation has been delayed.) The question was posed if the delay in this implementation will have an impact on other implementations and it will not. It was advantageous that this weather event happened at this time to reveal this problem with ESOTFS in parallel.

5. The next Synergy Meeting will be held at 2:30 pm EDT on Monday, 23 July 2012 in room 209, with remote teleconferencing capability.