NCEP Modeling System Synergy Meeting Highlights May 23, 2005

This meeting was led by Peter Manousos and attended by Geoff Dimego, Dave Michaud, John Ward, Jim Hoke, Larry Burroughs, Zoltan Toth, Bill Bua, Brent Gordon, Edwin Danaher, Stephen Lord, Keith Brill, and by phone David Bright from SPC, Steve Silberberg from AWC, and Stephen Jascourt from NWSH.

1. CCS

NCO’s John Ward reported all systems are up. May saw a very active month in production with the implementation of an Eta bundle, GFDL resolution increase, GFS to be implemented May 30^th and currently in parallel the RUC-13, Tracker, and GFS Ensemble bundle. TPC-8 (regarding NOAA purchase of needed disk space for CCS) was signed and therefore we should expect installation of additional disk space by mid July.

2. NOTES FROM EMC

2a. Global Modeling Group: Stephen Lord reported the parallel GFS will be implemented May 31. The performance of Day 1 QPF is being addressed with a correction implemented by mid June. HPC will be asked to evaluate.

2b. Mesoscale Modeling Group: Geoff Dimego reported the final Eta bundle was implemented operationally on May 3. Regarding WRF-NMM, the plan is to add WRF ensembles in the SREF context (6 additional members totaling to 21 members at 32km horizontal resolution by September). The horizontal resolution of the Hi-Res window will be increased to 5km by June. The WRF NMM (Eta replacement) will be run in parallel over the fall/winter with top level raised to 2mb, horizontal resolution increased to 10km, and adjustments made to the physics packages, with operational implementation intended for March 2006.

2c. Global Ensemble Prediction System: Zoltan Toth reported off line testing went smoothly for the pre-hurricane season implementation of the ensemble system (6-hrly breeding, vortex relocation algorithm – control of perturbation size and location, and extending T126 resolution out to 16 days). For the next implementation, ensemble membership will be increased from 10 to 20 per cycle and the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter will be tested for generating initial conditions. The NAEFS 1^st operational implementation (products from combined CMC/NCEP output) is targeted for March 2006.

2d. Short Range Ensemble Prediction System: Geoff Dimego reported an upgrade prior to September is intended - which includes a faster version of the RSM, a switch to the WRF postprocessor (which standardizes output from the Eta and RSM members), the addition of BUFR output for RSM members, and extension of the domain to cover AK and HI. Lack of disk space is preventing SREF lead time from being extended from f63 to f87. Considerations of adding 6 members vs. increased lead time vs. horizontal resolution increase being weighed. Four runs/day is still a possibility.

2d. Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch (MMAB): Larry Burroughs reported the hurricane wave model required a change to incorporate the higher resolution GFDL. The Real-Time Global SST (RTG_SST) analysis is testing a 1/12^th-degree resolution version to replace the presently operational ½-degree version, which will include lake temperatures. It will utilize data from a second DMSP satellite. The Hi-Res SST analysis is now in parallel, and is expected to be available by fall, including the Great Lakes.

3. Input to EMC and NCO

a. SPC and AWC queried NCO about format of RUC-13 output.

b. HPC inquired if GPS PWs are arriving at WWB. NCO and EMC stated they are and to speak with an NCO poc for access.

4. The next meeting will be held Monday June 27, 2005 at noon in room 209 with remote conference capability.