NCEP Synergy Meeting
Highlights: April 8, 2013
This meeting was led by
Wallace Hogsett (WPC) and attended by David Novak and
Keith Brill (WPC); Rebecca Cosgrove, Justin Cooke, and Chris Caruso Magee
(NCO); Geoff DiMego, DaNa Carlis, John Derber, Eric Rogers,
Jun Du, Vera Gerald, Hendrik Tolman,
Stephen Barry, Yuejian Zhu, David DeWitt, Daryl
Kleist and Mary Hart (EMC); Kathy Gilbert, Judy Ghirardelli, and Phil Shaffer
(MDL); Michael Brennan (NHC); Andy Dean (SPC); Tony Siebers
(OPC); Steve Silberberg (AWC); Pete Browning (CR); Bernard Meisner
(SR); Jeff Waldstreicher and Brian Miretzky (ER); John Kelly and Aiyun
Zang (NOS)
Special presentation on
NCEP Ensemble Plans (Geoff DiMego)
These are tentative
plans based on Sandy supplemental funding, which will make phase two of WCOSS
bigger than originally expected. There remains uncertainty as to the exact size
of phase two and its exact usage. These are guesstimates of the usage. Product
delivery times may be adjusted. Labor funds are separate from the supplemental
funding, so we have to make sure we have the labor to make this happen. Some
possible limitations: not enough ensemble members, we can’t run reforecasts,
data distribution is limited, ability of weather enterprise to adapt. By 2018,
all weather guidance will be based on ensembles.
The phase-two system
will be two petaflops, a 10x increase compared to the
phase one machine. The HRRR, convective-scale data assimilation (for both NMM-B
and ARW), and RTMA all take up some space. The HRRR-E (tentative name) is a
storm scale ensemble comprised of ARW and NMM-B members (no more WRF-NMM).
There will be a small slice of storm-scale ensembles for fire weather, Alaska,
etc. Ensemble membership will increase.
2014 (Phase 1): The SREF
will go from 16 to 12 km. The HRRR will run as a single member over CONUS out
to 15 hours. Remaining convective suite will go to 3 km, 6-hourly out to
48-60h.
2018 (Phase 2): The SREF
will remain at 12 km. There will be high-res extensions, i.e. multiple HRRR
members (HRRR-E), run hourly at 3 km grid spacing to 18 hours. Extensions will
run 6-hourly out to 60 hours. There will also be 2-3 runs of 1-km moveable
storm-scale NMM-B nests. The naming convention of this phase two system remains
uncertain. There will be an effort to consolidate and repurpose the current
irregular suite of convective models. In terms of data dissemination, there
will be a need for more intelligent use of ensemble data (NOMADS, distribution
of ensemble means as “deterministic” runs, etc.). Between now and 2018 all
nests will have parents.
One unresolved issue is
with operations and maintenance, because supplemental funding disappears after
a while.
1. NOTES FROM NCO (Becky Cosgrove and Chris Caruso Magee)
The CFS is not running
properly on Tide. CFS and CDAS problems remain on Tide though they run ok on
Gyre. EMC has submitted a WCOSS helpdesk ticket for this. The WSR has not been
handed off to NCO yet. You may think the NCO is getting close to
finished, but that’s not true. Things have to be running on Tide with native
data, which is close to done, but some jobs still use P6 data as input. Things
need to be running in the correct time slot, and NCO has asked IBM to audit
jobs on Tide. Many of these jobs haven’t been looked at for efficiency. The SPA
team makes sure products are being done on Tide comparable to CCS, and GEMPAK
output still needs to be verified. Jobs in the scheduler need to match the SMS
scheduler on the CCS to make sure things aren’t missing. The MAG website will
be moving to WCOSS. The goal now is to go live on WCOSS in mid- or late July.
Customer evaluation will occur in June via FTP and the MAG site.
A PNS went out about
radar summary graphics; so far people are willing to let it go. Next week is
the end for the MRF data. AWIPS gfsLR is going away.
Only gfs360 in grib2 will remain.
2. NOTES FROM EMC
2a.
Global Climate and Weather Modeling Branch (GCWMB) (John Derber and Yuejian Zhu)
EMC has tested the T1534
to run in parallel, but communication to Gyre is required to get the runs
started. They can’t be run on CCS. The hope for the subsequent GFS is to go to
T2043, which was tested for one cycle over the weekend. This will include
enhancements to assimilation and physics. It’s too early to say how
implementation will go on Tide, but no major roadblocks yet.
GEFS: Goal is to produce
downscaled products for wind and precipitation at 5 km. This has been reported
previously.
2b.
Mesoscale Modeling Branch (MMB) (Geoff DiMego and
Eric Rogers)
Working on high-res
windows, NAM nest, RTMA upgrade. Goal is to have all
regions running on upgraded code, e.g. high-res in Alaska.
2c.
Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch (MMAB) (Vera Gerald)
MMAB continues to work
on the WCOSS transition.
3. NATIONAL OCEAN
SERVICE (NOS, John Kelley):
Operational systems are
on WCOSS/Tide. A new model for San Francisco Bay is running on CCS and testing
in nowcast/forecast mode. The expectation is for Q1
2014 operational implementation. Working on a new system for the nested NGOS,
which will be ready to go in the Q3 2013 production suite.
We are testing on CCS
because we don’t yet have cron capability on WCOSS.
We would like to do it. NCO: NCO will provide remote training on the LSF load
leveler.
4. FEEDBACK FROM
MDL/OPERATIONAL CENTERS/REGIONS
4a. MDL (Kathy Gilbert): Nothing to report.
4b. NCEP Centers and NWS
Regions
Weather Prediction
Center (WPC, Wallace Hogsett): Nothing to report.
Storm Prediction Center
(SPC, Andy Dean): Nothing
to report.
National Hurricane
Center (NHC, Michael Brennan):
Nothing to report.
Space Weather Prediction
Center (SWPC, no representative):
Ocean Prediction Center
(OPC, Tony Siebers): Nothing to report.
Aviation Weather Center
(AWC, Steve Silberberg): Nothing to report.
Pacific Region (PR, no representative):
Alaska Region (AR, no representative):
Eastern Region (ER, Brian Miretzky):
Nothing to report.
Western Region (WR, no representative):
Southern Region (SR, Bernard Meisner): Nothing to report.
Central Region (CR, Pete Browning): Nothing to report.
5. NESDIS (no representative):
6. The next Synergy
Meeting will be held at 2:30 pm EDT on Monday, 6 May 2013 in NCWCP conference
room 2890, with remote teleconferencing capability.